- We received a number of follow up questions to our recent GE scenario analysis note, specifically on Alstom - what happens if it doesn't happen? This became more pressing with GE receiving the opening salvo from the EU Competition Commission on Friday.
- We lay out 3 "Plan B" scenarios if Alstom falls through: buyback, M&A and a hybrid approach. We find lower accretion by 2018 for all 3 - ranging from 9 to 12 cents (vs. our expected 20 cents for Alstom) - no doubt a result of lower synergy assumptions.
- GE is not backing off the deal and we expect limited remedies to result in a deal given the broader European context. We recognize the risk in Alstom as well, integration, backlog and otherwise, but we still see the upside as worth the risk.