Fed's Williams (voter): It's early days of figuring out impact of tariffs; There's still a lot of uncertainty around tariffs and details matter - press interview
- Full impact of tariffs can play out over long horizon; Need open mind on how long tariff impacts will last
- Tariffs will impact prices
- Consumer goods should see quick pass through from tariffs; Intermediate goods could see slow impact from tariffs
- Definitely a risk of inflation being higher than Fed forecasts
- My forecast that inflation will be relatively stable this year with upside risks
- Uncertainty is very high right now, more concerns about slowing economy
- Won't predict odds of recession, economy is currently very solid amid good job market
- Won't discount weak survey and anecdotal data; Uncertainty appears to be impacting behavior
- Fed won't allow high inflation to take route- Economy doesn't have stagflation right now
- Expects economy to continue to grow but at slower pace than last year
- Monetary policy has been really well positioned; Policy is moderately restrictive
- Fed needs to follow what it learns from data
- Fed needs to keep longer-run inflation expectations anchored; Longer-run inflation expectations are anchored today
- Slowing balance-sheet runoff was natural next step