Fed's Kashkari (dove; non-voter): US economy is sending mixed signals; consumers remain strong while businesses appear nervous and are pulling back on spending
- Not forecasting a recession but risks to the downside have increased in the last six months; monetary policy should be somewhat accommodative in light of risks that we see
- Europe, Germany, and China are slowing; the US will feel that
- The yield curve is signalling Fed policy may be slightly contractionary
- Expects to undershoot 2% target into foreseeable future
- Tariffs don't lead to higher inflation; they could shock confidence and lead to lower inflation