Fed's Kaplan (dove, voter): see downside risks to forecast without robust testing
- Economy has bottomed, expect growth in second half and into 2021
- Massive increase in testing is critical for consumers to be willing to engage
- Baseline forecast is unemployment falls to 10-11% by years end, under 7% by end of 2021
- Oil drillers will face challenges ramping up again after layoffs
- US oil production is down 2M bbl/day form last year to 10.8M bpd in Dec; Pemian Basin output has shrunk by as much as 1M bpd