Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr: See higher probability than before for a soft landing; There has been a lot of progress on inflation
- Economic activity has been considerably more resilient than expected
- Baseline projection is for below potential growth over the next year and further softening in the labor market; Labor market is tight but supply and demand are coming into better balance
- The full effects of past tightening are yet to come in the months ahead
- Bank supervisors expect banks to be ready and willing to use the discount window
- Monetary policy is best served by focusing on macroeconomic objectives
- The most important question at this point is not whether an additional rate increase is needed this year, but rather how long we will need to hold rates at a sufficiently restrictive level to achieve our goals
- We are at a point where we can 'proceed carefully' on monetary policy (echoing Chair Powell)
- I expect some further softening in the US labor market
- I'm highly attuned to risks to both of the Fed's mandates
- Monetary policy cannot be indifferent to financial risks
- Most banks are managing interest rate risk well
- Not anywhere close to lower bond level for bank reserves
- Q&A: Affirms confidence that we can get to the 2% inflation target
- Likely we are at or near sufficiently restrictive level of rates; Likely we will have to keep rates up for some time
- The amount of credit tightening we are seeing is less than what I feared in March
- It seems like we are seeing the right kind of slowing in the housing market; Goods and housing services inflation is on the right path downward