Fed Chair Powell: 75bps rate hike is not something we are actively considering; Expectations are that we'll start to see inflation flattening; Some evidence core PCE is peaking - post rate decision Q&A
- We will not hesitate to go higher on rates if we have to; We could go higher than neutral if necessary
- Don't want to just see 'some evidence' on inflation; We want to see progress
- Broad sense that additional 50bps hikes should be on the table for next couple meetings; Those decisions will be made at the meetings as new data comes in
- Still have a good chance for a soft or 'softish' landing; Does expect it to be very challenging however
- We think job creation will slow; Possible the jobless rate will go down further
- Wages are running high, especially in services sector
- Thinks supply and demand will come back into balance for labor market
- There is a path in which labor market moderates without unemployment rising; By moderating demand, we could see vacancies drop