Europe’s Starlink problem: who gets paid for sovereign space
Musk’s sudden limits on Ukraine’s Starlink use have turned a long-standing European worry into an urgent one. Warsaw, which helps fund Ukraine’s access, has publicly criticised the move, and even US Republican senators are questioning reliance on “one system, one person, one company.” The issue for Europe is simple: SpaceX has more than 11,000 satellites in orbit, Eutelsat’s OneWeb roughly 650, and IRIS² (348 satellites, about $17.5bn) only starts launching in 2029. Closing that gap means years of contracts. Below is how we map the listed exposure.
- Eutelsat (ETL FP): the only European LEO operator (OneWeb), member of IRIS², with a 10-year €1bn French MoD capacity contract. Purest play. The balance sheet is stretched, but the asset is now too strategic for governments to let fail; the risk for minority shareholders is dilution rather than survival.
- SES (SESG FP): IRIS² consortium partner.
- Indra (IDR SM): now owns 89.7% of Hispasat, which is in charge of the IRIS² ground segment.
- Airbus (AIR FP): builder of the 440-satellite OneWeb replacement fleet (340-unit order in January 2026), 50% of ArianeGroup.
- Nokia (NOKIA FH): partner of Iceye in the network Ukraine has just joined (launches from 2028)
- Rheinmetall (RHM GY): 60% of its satellite manufacturing JV with Iceye.
- Kongsberg (KOG NO): 10% of Andøya Space, the only proven orbital launch site in continental Europe, plus KSAT and NanoAvionics
- Thales (HO FP), Leonardo (LDO IM) via Thales Alenia Space and Telespazio, OHB (OHB GY).
- Safran (SAF FP) through ArianeGroup, Avio (AVIO IM) through Vega-C: both benefit from the push for independent launch capacity.
The key caveat: European execution is slow. Galileo ran nearly a decade late, and IRIS² funding is not fully agreed among member states. Contract announcements will come faster than revenues.
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