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ADDENDUM │ GRAHAM ADVISORS │ 25 APR 2026
EU SAAS TAKE-PRIVATE SCREEN │ THE CINT TEMPLATE
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SCREEN CRITERIA ───────────────────────────────────────────────
► EU listing, any exchange
► IPO or SPAC de-merger 2020-2022 vintage
► Drawdown >50% from IPO price or post-listing peak
► Software / SaaS / digital platform classification
► Founder, strategic, or PE block on cap table
► AI-disintermediated category OR seat-based pricing model
Full screen: ~25 names. Top-conviction shortlist below. Levels
indicative ─ verify HP before sizing.
TIER 1 ─ HIGHEST CONVICTION (FOUNDER/STRATEGIC BLOCK + CATEGORY KILL-ZONE)
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TICKER NAME IPO/PEAK SETUP
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OVH FP OVHcloud €18.5/Oct21 Founder Klaba family ~70% block;
sovereign cloud thesis under
pressure; capex burden vs hyper-
scalers; FR strategic asset
TRUE B SS Truecaller SEK 52/Oct21 Founders Mamedi/Khilji ~30% block;
caller-ID directly AI-substitut-
able; IN regulatory headwind
CMCOM NA CM.com €13.5/Feb20 Founder van Glabbeek block; CPaaS
is the textbook AI kill-zone
(SMS/voice replaced by agents);
thinly traded, easy to take out
PEXIP NO Pexip Holding NOK 63/May20 Video conf SaaS; Zoom/Teams +
AI-meeting agents pinching from
both sides; mgmt block + Verdane
HYQ GR Hypoport €575/peak21 Founder Slabke ~35% block; German
PropTech/mortgage SaaS; rate-
cycle exposed; family asset
TIER 2 ─ STRUCTURAL SETUP, QUALITY MIXED ────────────────────────
TRST LN Trustpilot 265p/Mar21 Reviews platform; AI-generated
content / verification thesis
contested; drawdown less severe
WLN FP Worldline €82/peak21 Payments not pure SaaS; debt-
heavy; Bain/Cinven recurrently
linked; CEO change Q4 25
NEMV LN Made Tech / sim Various Smaller UK govtech / vertical
SaaS, drawdown deep but liquidity
thin
NETC DC Netcompany DKK 750/pk IT services not pure SaaS; founder
Rogaczewski block; PE rumours
since 2024
TIER 3 ─ DEEP VALUE / QUALITY FLAGS ─────────────────────────────
THG LN THG 500p/Sep20 Down ~93%; Moulding TP attempted
twice (Apollo, KKR); commerce not
SaaS; included for completeness
AZRN NA Azerion €11/peak SPAC 2022; adtech; ~$1.4bn debt;
quality flags
S30 FP Solutions 30 €37/peak Field services; fraud allegations;
not pure SaaS
ALREADY DONE ─ REFERENCE TRADES (THE PATH-DEPENDENT VERSION) ─────
► Believe (BLV FP) ─ EQT/TCV/founder Ladegaillerie TP @ €15.40,
completed 2024-25
► Esker (ALESK FP) ─ Bridgepoint TP, 2024
► Adevinta (ADE NO) ─ Permira/Blackstone TP, 2023
► Kahoot! (KAHOT NO) ─ Goldman/GA TP, 2023
► Software AG (SOW GR) ─ Silver Lake TP, 2024
► SUSE (SUSE GR) ─ EQT TP, 2023
► CompuGroup Med (COP GR) ─ CVC TP, 2025
► Cint (CINT SS) ─ Triton/Bolero/Comer TP, 25 Apr 2026
PATTERN ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
The European 2020-22 SaaS IPO vintage is structurally broken at
public-market multiples. The take-private channel is the resolu-
tion path ─ it is no longer episodic, it is the dominant exit
mechanism for the cohort. We have logged 8 confirmed prints in
the last 30 months; expect another 2-4 from the Tier 1 list in
the next 6-12 months.
Founder block is the single best predictor of timing ─ rolled
equity reduces sponsor cash, governance friction is minimal,
process is accelerated. Tier 1 picks (OVH, TRUE, CMCOM, HYQ,
PEXIP) all have material insider/strategic ownership.
POSITIONING ───────────────────────────────────────────────────
► Basket trade: equal-weight Tier 1 (5 names). Hit rate on take-
private in 12mo we estimate 25-35%; avg premium 30-40%. Asym-
metric upside even if 70% of basket flat-to-down.
► Skip Tier 2/3 unless founder catalyst or active sponsor talk.
Quality risk dominates cap-structure setup.
► Insider-purchase signal: monitor TR-1 (UK), AMF déclarations
(FR), Finansinspektionen (SE), BaFin (DE). Director buying in
size = 60-90 day lead indicator.
RISKS ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
► Squeeze risk on shortable names if multiple sponsors approach
same target ─ Cint had four bidders pre-announcement
► EU regulatory: foreign-investment screening (FR golden power,
DE AWV) on strategic infrastructure (OVH most exposed)
► Sample size small; PE dry-powder constrained vs US
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LC │ Graham Advisors │ Companion to "Cint TP" + "SaaS Reckoning"
│ Full 25-name screen + cap-structure detail on request
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