EU Mid-Market Update: US participants get to react to disappointing payroll data from last Friday
***Notes/Observations***
- Price action subdued as most markets closed in both Asia and Europe
- Friday's miss in Mar US jobs data having analysts rethink 1st potential Fed rate hike
**Economic data***
- (IN) India Mar Services PMI: 53.0 v 53.9 prior; Composite PMI: 53.2 v 53.5 prior
- (JP) Japan Feb Preliminary Leading Index CI: 105.3 v 105.1e; Coincident Index: 110.7 v 110.7e
- (ES) Spain Mar Net Unemployment M/M: -60.2K v -13.5K prior
Fixed Income
- (PH) Philippines sold total PHP14.46B vs. PHP20.0B indicated in 3-month, 6-month Bills and 12-month Bills
- (IN) India sold total INR140B in 3-month and 12-month Bills
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
**Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 closed, FTSE 100 closed, DAX closed, CAC-40 closed, IBEX-35 closed, FTSE MIB closed, SMI closed, Athens Stock Exchange closed, S&P 500 Futures -0.7% at 2,044]
- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: With the major European bourses closed for holiday, S&P 500 Futures have declined by over 0.6%, as traders assess recent US payrolls data. US corporate earnings are also in focus this week, as Alcoa is due to report its results on Wed April, 8th (after the close). Commodities are sharply higher, as traders have pushed back Fed rate hike bets following the US jobs report (Copper +2.3%, NYMEX Crude Futures +2.8%, Gold Futures +1.7%); Upcoming comments from Fed official Dudley (dove, FOMC voter)
**Speakers**
- Spain PM Rajoy reiterated that the country's 2015 GDP growth was seen above 2.4% vs 2.0% official target and could create 500K jobs in 2015
- France Finance Ministry to maintain its 2015 GDP growth outlook of 1.0% when it presents broad outline to public finance council this week
- Greece Fin Min Varoufakis expected initial deal related to Greece at the April 24th Eurogroup meeting
- Turkey Central Bank commented on March inflation data: Reiterates core inflation is slowing on basic goods, ex-food inflation trend fall continued
- Turkey Econ Min Zeybekci: 3% GDP growth is unacceptable
- Israel Central Bank (BOI) Mar Minutes: Decision to hold rates steady at 0.10% was unanimous
- JPMorgan revised its Fed call; now saw a rate hike in Sept vs June prior view
**Currencies***
- The USD consolidated its recent losses after Friday's release of non-farm payroll laid an egg and missed expectations. Various analysts were pushing back their call for the 1st Fed rate hike
- EUR/USD still contained within its post FOMC trading range from the past two week. EUR-buy stops above 1.1050 area were unable to be taken out (elected) despite the miss in US jobs data.
- The weaker USD has helped commodities. Spot gold was higher at $1,222/oz while front month WTI oil contract was above $50/barrel
**Political/In the Papers:
- IMF's Lagarde confirmed that Greece would make the planned repayment to IMF on Apr 9th
**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 07:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank Meeting Minutes
- 07:30 (CL) Chile Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) M/M: -0.1%e v 0.8% (revised from 0.4%); Y/Y: 1.8%e v 3.0% prior
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 08:30 (US) Fed's Dudley (dove, FOMC voter) on economic outlook in NJ
- 09:00 (BR) Brazil Mar Services PMI: No est v 52.3 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 51.3 prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Leading Indicators M/M: No est v -0.07 prior
- 09:45 (US) Mar Final Markit Services PMI: 58.5e v 58.6 prelim; Composite PMI: No est v 58.5 prelim
- 10:00 (US) Mar Labor Market Conditions Index Change: No est v 4.0 prior
- 10:00 (US) Mar ISM Non-Manufacturers Composite: 56.8e v 56.9 prior
- 10:00 (CA) Canada Mar Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Seasonally Adj): 51.0e v 49.7 prior; PMI (unadj): 51.0e v 50.8 prior
- 10:30 (CA) Bank of Canada Q1 Senior Loan Officer Survey: -1.0e v -2.7 prior; Business Outlook Future Sales: 0.00e v 8 prior
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $48B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 16:00 (US) Crop Condition Report
- 21:00 (PH) Philippines Mar CPI M/M: 0.0%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.6%e v 2.5% prior; CPI Core Y/Y: 2.7%e v 2.5% prior
- 21:30 (AU) Australia Feb Retail Sales M/M: 0.4%e v 0.4% prior
- 23:00 (TH) Bank of Thailand to sell 3-month, 6-month and 12-month
- 23:35 (JP) Japan to sell 6-Month Bill
- (AU) RBA Rate decision (Early Tues)
- (IN) RBI rate decision (early Tues)