EL NIÑO 2026 UPDATE — STRENGTH TAIL BECOMES BASE CASE
13 Aug NOAA CPC: >90% probability very strong El Niño NH winter 26-27, 69% probability of a historic event (>+2.5°C RONI in OND) — would exceed every El Niño since 1950.
July Niño-3.4 at +1.4°C (from +0.4°C in May). Subsurface anomalies +10°C at depth. Atmospheric coupling confirmed (SOI ~-2σ).
The strength distribution we flagged as "undecided" in our 16 May field guide has resolved at the extreme end. What was the tail bet is now NOAA's central case.
Attached:
(1) 16 May macro field guide — the original thesis (17p)
(2) 16 Aug 90-day follow-up — scorecard, updated trade grid, H2 26 / Q1 27 trigger calendar (6p)
Highlights from the follow-up: reinsurance long paid, cocoa long broken (closed), palm oil basket partially played but under-sized for a historic event. Two new expressions initiated: long Thai rice (India export policy trigger), long Peruvian anchovy / short soymeal (fishmeal supply shock, 1997-98 / 2015-16 playbook).
Next CPC discussion 10 Sep. ABARES Sep/Nov the main agricultural triggers.
Happy to discuss.
LC
Graham Advisors