>>> El Niño 2026 — 82% likely, strength still undecided



From: Laurent Chekroun (MAKOR CAPITAL MARKET) At: 05/16/26 19:28:46 UTC+2:00
Subject: >>> El Niño 2026 — 82% likely, strength still undecided
El Niño 2026 — 82% likely, strength still undecided

The May 14 NOAA CPC discussion put El Niño at 82% for May–July and 96% through winter 2026-27. Less commented on, but the part that actually drives cross-asset magnitude — verbatim from the same discussion: "no strength categorization exceeds a 37% chance."

The headline probability is one trade. The strength tail is a different one entirely. We sized the portfolio overlay accordingly — basket-rotation, not directional macro.

Three deliverables attached:

• 17-page field guide — probability, the science, regional impact map, commodity transmission matrix, Ukraine grain and Middle East / Hormuz cross-references, asset allocation, seven trade ideas ranked by Sharpe conviction
• Single-page bust dashboard — five 2014-killer signals with pre-defined position triggers, for weekly use
• 2014 drawdown reference xlsx — the historical analogue for sizing conversations

Next NOAA CPC update: 11 June. We are not deploying conviction ahead of that data point.

Happy to discuss any segment.

LC

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Graham Advisors Sàrl
Institutional Research · Cross-Asset Strategy