EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook; lowers 2016 WTI and Brent crude price estimate
- Brent crude oil prices are forecast to average $38/b in 2016 and $50/b in 2017. Forecast West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are expected to average the same as Brent in both years. However, the current values of futures and options contracts continue to suggest high uncertainty in the price outlook.
- U.S. crude oil production averaged an estimated 9.4 million b/d in 2015, and it is forecast to average 8.7 million b/d in 2016 and 8.5 million b/d in 2017. EIA estimates that crude oil production in January was 70,000 b/d below the December level, which was 9.2 million b/d
- Natural gas working inventories were 2,934 billion cubic feet (Bcf) on January 29, 20% higher than during the same week last year and 18% higher than the previous five-year average (2011-15) for that week. EIA forecasts that inventories will end the winter heating season (March 31) at 2,096 Bcf, which would be 41% above the level at the same time last year
- EIA estimates that global oil inventories increased by 1.8 million b/d in 2015, marking the second consecutive year of strong inventory builds. Persistent oversupply has contributed to oil prices dropping further in January and reaching the lowest monthly average level since the end of 2003. Global oil inventories are forecast to increase by an annual average of 1.0 million b/d in 2016 and by an additional 0.3 million b/d in 2017