ECHO (EchoStar): "$14bn of revenue + SpaceX kicker" framing is backwards
- The $14bn is Q2 segment revenue x4, but Pay-TV (64% of it) has been off EchoStar's books since the DBS Ch.11, Hughes is in Ch.11 since 3 Aug, and Boost is about breakeven. Segment OIBDA is about $3bn a year and falling.
- SpaceX: 261.8m SPCX shares = ~$40bn at $151.85, vs ECHO mkt cap ~$27bn. That's ~0.9 SPCX per ECHO share, or ~$137 of SpaceX per share vs ~$92.
- Why the discount: shares only arrive at final closing (target 30 Nov 2027), stake not hedged, tax bill on the gain, Hughes lenders contesting dealings with the parent, buyback capped by bond covenants.
- Owning ECHO = owning SpaceX 14 months forward at a discount, with Pay-TV run-off and Ch.11 noise attached.