HunterBook Report : https://hntrbrk.com/csg/
JPM Comment :
JPM on CSG – note dated 5 May 2026 (David Perry)
1. Rating reiterated Overweight, PT €40 unchanged (vs share price €15.9 after Monday’s -13%) — JPM explicitly defends the thesis despite the Hunterbrook short report.
2. Hunterbrook arguments dismantled point by point: the recommissioning/new ammo mix (~80% in 2024 per HB) is “not relevant” and was already disclosed in the IPO prospectus.
3. M/L Ammo orders: €650m YTD 2026 (three unnamed customers), broadly in line with RHM — “far too early to draw conclusions,” European defence orders being lumpy and back-end loaded.
4. Capex: CSG at 10.2% of sales 2026E (joint 2nd in the peer group); comparison with RHM deemed unfair (RHM consolidates 100% of JV capex, not yet restated for partner reimbursement).
5. Governance / minorities: JPM rejects the “undisclosed minority shareholders” claim (already visible in pre-IPO accounts) and flips the Kratochvil argument — “if Mr Kratochvil believes his minority stake is worth a lot of money, then it is because he believes that CSG as a whole is worth a lot of money.”
Bottom line JPM: buy the weakness, no estimate changes; the onus is now on CSG to deliver on its 2026 guidance (FCF €800-900m, capex ~€700m).
LC