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GRAHAM ADVISORS │ INSTITUTIONAL FLASH │ 25 APR 2026 │ EU SOFTWARE
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CINT (CINT SS) │ TAKE-PRIVATE AT SEK 5.60 │ EUROPEAN SAAS RECKONING
[BUY]
DEAL ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
► TriCarbs BidCo (Triton Fd 6 + Bolero + P. Comer + B. Schnittlich)
cash offer SEK 5.60/sh = SEK 1.99bn EV
► Premium 33% to 24-Apr close. No financing condition.
90% min acceptance. Board unanimous.
► SEB advising bidders.
THE NUMBER NOBODY IS PRINTING ─────────────────────────────────
► IPO Feb-21 @ SEK 50 ─► Peak SEK ~125 ─► Bid SEK 5.60
► Offer is -89% vs IPO, -95% vs peak.
► The "33% premium" is a premium to ruins.
► Implied EV/Sales: ~2x. Implied EV/EBITDA: undisclosed but low DD.
WHY IT MATTERS ────────────────────────────────────────────────
Founder-led (Comer = ex-Lucid CEO, merged into Cint 2021) coming
back to take it out at the floor with sponsor cover. This is the
constructive twin of the Medallia handover: same 2021 vintage,
same AI-disintermediated category (CX / survey / panel insights),
same multiple reset ─ different governance path.
The thesis is now Europe-side. Survey-tech is among the cleanest
LLM kill-zones (panel sampling, survey design, audience segmen-
tation all eaten by agents). Public market won't pay for it. PE
+ founder will, at 2x sales, off-screen.
READ-ACROSS ───────────────────────────────────────────────────
Screen Eu mid-cap SaaS, 2020-22 IPO vintage, -70% to -90% from
issue, founder still on cap table, AI-exposed category. That's
the next take-private cohort. Initial candidates to watch:
► Solutions 30, Lectra, Verimatrix, Esker (already gone), and
the long tail of Nordic/Italian SPACs of the same vintage.
POSITIONING ───────────────────────────────────────────────────
► Cint: tender into the 5.60 ─ 90% threshold likely cleared,
no plausible competing bid given Comer + Triton lock-up.
► Sector: avoid public Eu CX/survey/seat-based SaaS at any
multiple. Re-rate is structural, not cyclical.
► Watch: any Nordic mid-cap SaaS with >70% drawdown + founder
block ─ that's the take-private signal.
ONE-LINE ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Cint @ 5.60 is Europe pricing the SaaS reckoning. Founders are
buying back what the public market won't underwrite anymore.
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LC │ Graham Advisors │ See morning note "The SaaS Reckoning"
│ for full framework. Distribution: institutional only.
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