CF Industries beats by $0.05, beats on revs (25.51 -0.86)
- Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.05 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.05 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of ($0.00); revenues rose 3.3% year/year to $1.04 bln vs the $0.99 bln Capital IQ Consensus as record sales volumes were partially offset by lower average selling prices across all segments
- Highest sales volume for any quarter in company's history, 4.75 million tons
- Largest production volume for any quarter in company's history
Sales volumes for the quarter were significantly higher compared to Q1 of 2016 as increased supply available for sale met strong early season demand for ammonia and urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) in the Southern Plains and lower Midwest
- Additionally, exports of ammonia and UAN were significantly higher year-over-year as the co continues to leverage its North American platform and develop a global portfolio of customers in order to optimize the overall businessAverage selling prices in Q1 of 2017 were lower than average selling prices in Q1 of 2016 due to greater global nitrogen supply availability
- The average selling price for ammonia was $307 per ton in Q1 of 2017 compared to $362 per ton in Q1 of 2016.
- The average selling price for urea was $248 per ton in Q1 of 2017 compared to $256 per ton in Q1 of 2016
- The average selling price for UAN was $171 per ton in Q1 of 2017 compared to $213 per ton in the first quarter of 2016
Outlook:
- CF believes nitrogen demand remains strong during the spring application season for nitrogen-consuming crops, including the ~90 million acres of corn expected to be planted in the United States
- Wet and cold weather in the Midwest that lasted from March into late April stopped field work and delayed ammonia applications there, with activity having accelerated more recently. Additionally, upgraded products such as urea and UAN will be required to make up for ammonia not applied during the fall or early spring application seasons
- The global nitrogen supply surplus continues to pressure marginal producers in China and other regions. Chinese urea production costs are estimated to be $15-$20 per metric ton higher than the middle of 2016 due primarily to higher anthracite coal prices
- Published operating rates in China during the first quarter averaged 57%, and there have been significantly lower Chinese urea exports so far this year. Urea exports from China during the first quarter were ~1.2 million metric tons, the lowest quarterly volume since the second quarter of 2013. CF continues to expect 5-6 million metric tons of total urea exports from China in 2017, a decline of up to 44 percent compared to 2016 and up to 64 percent compared to 2015
- CF anticipates this uneven pricing environment to continue through 2017, with a spring increase possible before prices return to seasonally low levels during the summer