Objet: Bulletin Quotidien, 31 August 2026: summary
Summary of Bulletin Quotidien no. 13381, Monday 31 August 2026.
Presidential race
The political season reopened with all contenders positioning ahead of the spring 2027 elections. Olivier Faure confirmed his entry into the Socialist and Place Publique primary, where Raphaël Glucksmann is the favourite. Édouard Philippe is already sketching a new party or party confederation to contest the snap legislative elections expected after the presidential vote. Bruno Retailleau is holding his candidacy, which he calls essential. Hollande, Cazeneuve and Bayrou each called for a broad centrist or centre-left alliance, on differing terms. Jordan Bardella focused his attacks on LFI and acknowledged that no French bank has so far agreed to lend to his party for the campaign.
2027 budget
Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu will table the finance bill on 30 September, built around measures that are, in his words, largely reversible by whichever majority emerges from the polls. In practice it may only be a first-half budget. He rules out de-indexing small pensions, plans to cap workplace-injury daily benefits at 1.8 times the minimum wage from 1 November (around 270m euros of savings) and to tax them in full (a further 285m euros). He warns that rolling over the corporate income tax surcharge unchanged would send a very poor signal to international investors. Agriculture is his stated priority, with a drought support plan due Thursday.
Macro and markets
INSEE revised Q1 GDP to -0.2 % and Q2 to zero. Fitch affirmed France at A+ with a stable outlook, forecasting deficits of 5.2 % of GDP in 2026 and 5.5 % in 2027. Moody's reports on 23 October, S&P on 27 November.
Elabe poll (26-28 August): Marine Le Pen leads the first round with 34 to 35.5 %, and wins every second-round configuration tested.