Biotech: M&A restart into the midterms + Q4 catalyst and pharma event calendar
BIOTECH: M&A RESTART INTO MIDTERMS + Q4 CATALYST CALENDAR
Stifel expects the pre-election M&A lull to end, possibly as soon as this week, with a further pickup after the Nov 3 midterms. Large deals are not announced into an election. Early-stage valuations have normalised, so pharma demand returns. Processes take 4-6 weeks minimum, so expect a lag. The driver is unchanged: the patent cliff still has to be covered. Dense tape into JPM in January.
BIOTECH CATALYSTS
- Oct 20: RCUS, casdatifan ARC-20 data at investor event (NY)
- Oct (guided): RAPP, RAP-219 Ph2 topline in bipolar mania
- Oct 23-27, ESMO Madrid:
- MRNA: INTerpath-001 adjuvant melanoma, LBA1 (Oct 24)
- INCY: INCB161734 (KRAS G12D) + chemo in PDAC (Oct 26)
- GMAB: petosemtamab CRC Ph2 update
- Nov 1: AGIO, mitapivat SCD PDUFA (falls on a Sunday)
- Late Nov: SLGL, SGT-610 Ph3 topline in Gorlin BCC
- Nov 30: VRTX, povetacicept IgAN PDUFA (BLA, accelerated approval)
- Dec: CGEM, CLN-978 autoimmune data and CLN-049 r/r AML update
- Dec 27: PRAX, relutrigine SCN2A/SCN8A DEE PDUFA
- Near-term: CGON, PIVOT-006 Ph3 topline in IR-NMIBC
Q4 / YE (company guidance)
- ANNX: ARCHER II, month-15 endpoint in GA
- AXSM: ENGAGE, solriamfetol in BED
- BIIB: litifilimab, two Ph3 in SLE
- EYPT: LUCIA wAMD Ph3, the binary after the LUGANO miss
- FTH: PIKTOR Ph2 in endometrial cancer
- IRON: APOLLO bitopertin Ph3 in EPP
- IVA: NATiV3 lanifibranor Ph3 in F2/F3 MASH
- KYMR: BROADEN2, KT-621 Ph2b in AD (pulled forward from mid-27)
- MBX: MBX 4291 Part C in obesity
- MIRM: AZURE-4 brelovitug Ph3 in HDV
- PRAX: EMERALD, relutrigine in broad DEEs
- RVMD: CRC programme update
- SYRE: SKYWAY Ph2 PsA/axSpA cohorts
- TRDA: ELEVATE-44 cohort 1 open-label data
- VYGR: VY7523 tau PET in AD
- NVS: remibrutinib Ph3 in HS (H2 26 guidance; read-across for UCB)
- Late 26 / early 27: MAZE, MZE829 HORIZON in AMKD
ALREADY OUT
- PCVX: OPUS-1 met all primaries (Oct 5)
- MIRM: EXPAND positive (Oct 12)
- SNDX: IPF Ph2 miss, programme dropped (Oct 12)
- TRDA: ELEVATE-45 cohort 1 positive (Oct 14)
- IONS: IMAgINATION interim met its primary (Sep 23)
- AMGN/AZN: CROSSING EoE met its primaries (Aug 27)
BIG PHARMA INVESTOR EVENTS TO YE
- Oct 23: NOVN, remibrutinib in MS investor call
- Oct 23: VRTX, investor event at ASN Kidney Week
- Oct 24: AMGN, ESMO webcast
- Oct 26: AZN, Meet the Management at ESMO
- Oct 26: MRK, oncology investor event at ESMO
- Oct 27: GSK, ESMO investor briefing
- Nov 19: NOVN, Meet Novartis Management, London
- Dec 7: LLY, Lilly Innovation Day
- Dec 8: JNJ, Enterprise Business Review (2027 guidance, early pipeline, OTTAVA)
Q3 RESULTS
- Oct 22: ARGX, IPN (sales)
- Oct 27: NOVN
- Oct 28: GSK, BIIB
- Oct 29: MRK, LLY, BMY, GILD, Takeda
- Oct 30: AZN, SAN, ABBV, REGN
- Nov 2: VRTX
- Nov 3: PFE, AMGN, BAYN
- Nov 4: NOVO, Astellas
- Nov 11: Lundbeck
- Nov 12: Merck KGaA
- Pfizer's 2027 guidance call: not announced yet. Last year's was on December 16.
- Roche and Daiichi Sankyo Q3 dates: these come only from secondary sources, not the companies.