Cover:
-President Donald Trump's executive order has opened up a $12T market for retirement savings, benefiting private-asset firms like Apollo Global Management, KKR, Carlyle Group, and Blackstone. These firms are preparing new products for retirement accounts, as traditional endowment and pension-fund clients have slowed their commitments. Access to private markets could be one of the biggest changes since the invention of the target-date fund three decades ago. When private funds appear on 401(k) menus, savers will be told about their diversification from stocks and bonds and their higher average returns than the S&P 500 index. However, the performance of individual funds varies widely around the category average, making investors need to choose managers wisely. Shares of KKR have remained flat, while shares of Carlyle have risen 8% and Blackstone is up 3%. Private-asset managers can be expected to accelerate after Washington's green light, as they have been eager to break into the 401(k) market for years.
Interview:
-Tom Gayner, a seasoned CEO, runs a diversified holding company, Markel Group, which has an insurance operation and an investment portfolio. Gayner, a long-time disciple of Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway, has modeled Markel Group to a degree after that company. Gayner joined Markel in 1990, became co-CEO in 2016, and was named sole CEO in 2023. Markel Group has been around since 1930, insuring jitney transportation devices and taxi cabs. The company has been investors in public equity securities for about 20 years and has a collection of insurance, investment- and non-insurance businesses. Gayner's name may sound a bit like Berkshire Hathaway, but it is intentional. The Markel Group's origin story, holdings, and Berkshire's succession plan are discussed in an interview with Barron's.
Tech Trader:
-Intel's stock has experienced a one-day move of plus or minus 3% due to various market issues, including geopolitics, trade, artificial intelligence, U.S. industrial policy, and a micromanaging executive branch. The company's problems are rooted in manufacturing and have led to turnover in its executive suite, undermining a well-respected engineer, Pat Gelsinger. The new CEO, Lip-Bu Tan, has limited options and time to fix the situation. President Donald Trump initially criticized Intel's CEO, stating that there is no other solution to the problem. However, after Tan visited the White House to gain Trump's favor, Intel stock rose more than 3% that day. Intel agreed to a deal with the US government, which would grant the latter a 9.9% stake in the company in return for fulfilling its full payout under the US Chips Act, totaling $11.1B. The law passed by Congress and signed by President Joe Biden in 2022 never called for equity stakes for that funding, but political dynamics have shifted.
The Trader:
-Defense spending is expected to rise globally, but selecting defense-stock winners is challenging due to complex threats, changing global alliances, and the proliferation of artificial-intelligence-trained unmanned systems. Northrop Grumman and General Dynamics may be interesting contrarian plays. The Global X Defense Tech exchange-traded fund has seen a 63% increase in 2025, largely due to Palantir Technologies, its largest holding. The US defense budget is set to top $1T in fiscal year 2026, with European nations spending roughly half that. Defense spending commitments provide a policy floor, while geopolitical uncertainty supplies the premium, defining the transatlantic defense sector backdrop. Of the 50-plus stocks 22V Research looked at, 12 look technically strong, nine in the US and three in Europe. These stocks include GE Aerospace, RTX, Boeing, General Dynamics, Northrop Grumman, Taser maker Axon Enterprise, L3Harris Technologies, component supplier Curtiss-Wright, nuclear technology supplier BWX Technologies, jet engine makers Safran and Rolls-Royce Holdings, and Italian defense aerospace and defense company Leonardo.
-Railroads are now gaining interest again due to a sudden merger between Union Pacific, Norfolk Southern, and CSX. The merger could create a transcontinental railroad, a rare occurrence in the industry. The industry is relatively concentrated, and regulators are generally against additional consolidation. However, if the merger is allowed, CSX could be the next target for either a Canadian railroad or Berkshire Hathaway's BNSF, which Warren Buffett's company bought in 2010. The stock has already benefited from the speculation, with shares up about 8% since Semafor reported that Union Pacific was looking for a merger partner in mid-July. The merger could lead to further acquisitions in the railroad sector.
Features:
-US shoppers have been resilient against economic headwinds for years, but the true test of consumer strength and retail stocks is just beginning. Major retailers like Target, Lowe's, Walmart, Amazon.com, and TJMaxx’s parent company TJX have posted better sales than expected in the past quarter, indicating that Americans still have money and are willing to spend it. This resilience is partly due to a strong labor market, a historically low unemployment rate, consistent wage gains, and a record-breaking bull run on equities. Another reason for the persistence of consumer strength is that many retailers imported products ahead of spring and summer tariff implementations, allowing them to keep most of their prices unchanged and have been willing to eat some of the higher costs. However, the reaction to earnings suggests that doubts are seeping in, with Walmart stock dropping 4.5% on the day of its release, while BJ's Wholesale Club lost 6%, and Target, 6.3%, though the last had more to do with its choice of a new CEO than its business. These doubts largely stem from new tariffs as retailers restock inventories for the holiday season and companies are forced to pass on higher import costs to consumers to protect margins.
-The Covid-19 pandemic has ended, but the virus continues to kill up to 56,000 people in the US and sicken up to 18 million. Pfizer, Moderna, and Novavax plan to launch new versions of their Covid-19 vaccines this fall, updated to target JN.1 viruses. The eligibility of patients to receive these shots remains a significant question mark. The federal government's approach to vaccines has been skewed by Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s skepticism of vaccines, particularly the messenger RNA-based shots. The Food and Drug Administration is likely to approve the updated shots in the coming days, with approvals likely to be narrower this year than in previous years. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will convene outside vaccine experts in August or September to issue recommendations for insurers covering the shots. Despite low Covid-19 cases, the CDC estimates that infections are growing or likely to grow in 34 states and are stable in 14. Jennifer Nuzzo, professor of epidemiology at Brown University, believes that the chaos will make it harder for high-risk people to get vaccines.
Europe:
-The US and the European Union have announced a new trade deal, which includes 15% import tariffs on many European goods, including cars. The four-page framework expands on the previous agreement, which was struck last month. The US will apply a 15% tariff to nearly all other European goods, excluding aircraft and aircraft parts, generic pharmaceuticals, and some natural resources like cork that aren't available in the US. The US will maintain its 27.5% tariffs on automobiles from the European Union until the trading bloc eliminates its own levies on US goods, including industrials, seafood, and pork. Once the EU removes its tariffs, the US will cut its auto tariff to 15%. The EU is also planning to increase its purchases of American liquefied natural gas, oil, and nuclear energy products and spend at least $40B on US artificial-intelligence chips for its data centers. The EU's flagship Stoxx 600 index was down 0.3% in morning trading on Thursday.
Emerging Markets:
-Kyivstar Group, Ukraine's largest mobile operator, has gone public on the NASDAQ through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC). The SPAC has been in the works since the beginning of the year, when VEON, Kyivstar's Dubai-based parent company, signed a letter of intent with Cohen Circle Acquisition to list the company indirectly. The company provides mobile services to nearly 23M customers and also has internet, healthcare, entertainment, ride-hailing, and enterprise-technology operations. In late 2018, it signed an agreement to offer direct-to-cell connectivity through Elon Musk's Starlink, with service expected to launch by the end of 2025. The stock, which trades under the ticker KYIV, is climbing 20% on Monday. However, talk of Ukraine's reconstruction might be premature, as Ukraine remains mired in war more than three-and-a-half years after Russia invaded it. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and a delegation of European leaders arrived at the White House to discuss the conflict.
Commodities:
-Copper prices have been volatile this year due to uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's trade policies. Prices for US-based Comex copper surged over 25% in the first half of the year due to President Donald Trump's threatened tariffs, prompting traders to stockpile the metal in the US. However, the actual policy was unveiled last month, and the imperative to build up stateside copper inventories vanished. On July 30, copper fell 20%, its worst single-day decline on record, and hasn't recovered. The most active Comex copper contract settled at $4.44/lbs, up 0.1%. In the short term, copper may have further to fall as the market works through the hoard that U.S. traders imported during the first months of the year.
Streetwise:
-The stock charts of Verizon and AT&T reveal a Trading Places pattern, similar to the 1983 movie where Dan Aykroyd plays a commodities trader and Eddie Murphy is a street hustler. Verizon has fallen out of favor, and longtime competitor AT&T has suddenly shot ahead. The next outcome could involve a gorilla suit, a prostitute with a heart of gold, and orange-juice futures. AT&T, which was a streamlined company paying down debt and rolling out fiber for broadband, has led the group, returning 87%, compared to 62% for T-Mobile US and 26% for Verizon. The S&P 500 has returned 27%. If dividends are stripped out, Verizon looks worse, lagged behind the stock market by 10 points and is the only one of the big three telecoms to fall in price by 24% over the past five years.