Cover:
-Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver a defining speech at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, focusing on the reshaping of the US job market and economy due to demographics, productivity, and immigration. The speech, which is expected to be brief, may be his last chance to cement his legacy and argue for the central bank's independence. The event, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, attracts influential central bankers and will take place from August 21-23 at the Jackson Lake Lodge in Wyoming's Grand Teton National Park. Trump has been criticizing Powell for the Fed's failure to cut interest rates and for mismanaging the $2.5B renovation of the Fed's building. The White House is vetting potential replacements, focusing on candidates willing to cut rates quickly and restructure the Fed.
Interview:
-Arthur Brooks, a leading expert on happiness, explains that happiness is a combination of three phenomena: enjoyment, satisfaction in accomplishments and activities, and a sense of meaning. He believes that happiness is not just for tree-huggers, but for everyone. Brooks calls a quarter of the population above average in happiness and unhappiness, which he calls the "mad scientist" mood profile. He suggests that CEOs should focus on self-managing their intense levels of positive and negative. Happy people should concentrate on four things: their faith or philosophical lives, their family lives, their friendships, and serving people through their work. Brooks believes that happy people should focus on four things: their faith or philosophical lives, their family lives, their friendships, and serving people through their work.
Tech Trader:
-Eastman Kodak, founded in the 19th century, is facing bankruptcy for the second time. The company, once a giant of consumer products, has been disrupted by digital photography, raising doubts about its ability to continue as a going concern. Kodak is confident it will be able to pay off a significant portion of its term loan well before it becomes due and amend, extend or refinance its remaining debt and preferred stock obligations. The company's success in mass consumer markets was achieved with the release of the Kodak Brownie camera in 1900, which allowed it to charge only $1, a fifth of the cost of its previous model. The Brownie was a runaway success, leading Kodak to become a pillar of the 20th century industry and the stock market.
The Trader:
-Otis Worldwide, a maker of elevators and escalators, has seen a gradual decline in shares, down nearly 5% this year. The company, spun off from United Technologies in 2020, is expected to benefit from increased global demand due to a building boom in China, South Korea, and India. Otis also generates steady revenue from its services business, which maintains and upgrades aging elevators in high-rise office and apartment buildings. The company's chair, CEO and president, Judy Marks, believes that the company's growth from the higher-margin services segment will give it a further boost. Additionally, Otis is less likely to be affected by any trade tensions between the U.S. and China, as aftermarket services are exempt from tariffs.
-Inflation remains a concern for the Federal Reserve, but consumers are not too concerned about higher prices. Retail sales for July rose 0.5%, in line with forecasts, and the market is not too nervous. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 1.9% through midday Friday, hitting a new all-time high. The S&P 500 index and Nasdaq Composite are also rallying, up about 1% this week and near record highs. Investors in consumer stocks are not as concerned about inflation or other economic worries like weaker jobs data. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF is up around 5% in 2025 and has soared 35% from its lows of the year, which was right around President Donald Trump's tariff announcements in early April. The American consumer seems to be doing what it does best: shopping until it drops. Investors will get more clues about consumer behavior this coming week when several retailers report their latest earnings. Betting against the American consumer is usually a mistake.
Features:
-Big Pharma is considering a new approach to high US drug costs by selling drugs directly to consumers, similar to mattress companies like Hims & Hers Health and Ro. This strategy aims to sell inexpensive, generic medicines without the complex and expensive path from factory to consumer. However, newer, patent-protected prescription drugs still navigate multiple intermediaries, including pharmacy-benefit managers, health insurers, drug distributors, and retail pharmacies. Top drug executives are now considering direct-to-consumer distribution models, offering lower upfront prices to patients who are willing to pay themselves. Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are already selling obesity injections directly to consumers, at prices well below list price but still above what insured patients would pay at the pharmacy counter. However, it is unclear whether this direct-to-consumer approach can assuage the White House's calls to lower drug prices. President Donald Trump has signaled interest in this approach, sending letters to top drug executives threatening sanctions if they failed to lower drug prices.
-Inflation remains a concern for the Federal Reserve, but consumers are not concerned about higher prices. Retail sales for July rose 0.5%, in line with forecasts. The market is not too nervous, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 1.9% and hitting a new all-time high. The S&P 500 index and Nasdaq Composite are also rallying, up about 1% this week and near record highs. Investors in consumer stocks are not as concerned about inflation or other economic worries like weaker jobs data. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF is up around 5% in 2025 and has soared 35% from its lows of the year, which was around President Donald Trump's tariff announcements in early April. The American consumer seems to be shopping until it drops, with no negative effects from tariffs in the hard data.
Europe:
-President Donald Trump expressed his desire for a rapid cease-fire following a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at a US military base in Anchorage. The talks focused on potential land swapping between Russia and Ukraine, security guarantees for Ukraine, and the business relationship between the US and Russia. Trump emphasized the severe economic consequences for Russia if the fighting continues. The talks could also have significant repercussions for crude oil prices, with West Texas Intermediate crude rising 1.8% to $62.81 a barrel and Brent falling 1.5% to $65.81. Oil prices could swing wildly depending on the outcome of the summit, with some analysts suggesting that a peace deal could lead to crude benchmarks dropping below $60 a barrel. Trump has previously threatened Putin with severe consequences if he doesn't agree to stop the war.
Emerging Markets:
-Economists and strategists are highlighting the similarities between the actions of President Donald Trump and emerging markets like Turkey, Argentina, and China. They see parallels in Trump's use of the White House to upend geopolitical and economic norms. Despite stocks and financial assets growing in value since Trump's second inauguration, experts predict that if these patterns continue, investors may see a reduction in the premium that U.S. assets have long commanded. This could mean weaker long-run returns for stocks or higher bond yields and a continuation in the weakness of the dollar. Trump's actions come against heightened concerns that the U.S. fiscal deficit is unsustainable, and more so after Trump's tax and spending plan became law earlier this year, probably further widening the deficit. This undercutting of agencies that gather data is crucial to the U.S. dollar's dominance, which has been a factor in the premium that U.S. assets have typically commanded.
Commodities:
-Newmont stock has risen by 85% in 2025, driven by a higher outlook for sales and earnings and a corporate transformation aimed at unlocking shareholder value. The bullish case for Newmont is based on the growing preference for gold as an alternative to traditional asset classes and institutions in an environment marked by geopolitical instability and growing fiscal and economic uncertainty. Central banks have been steadily accumulating gold and diversifying their foreign-exchange reserves, but aggregate flows into sector exchange-traded funds still have room to catch up. Newmont's stock price momentum and market enthusiasm have been a long time in the making, with the company aggressively pursuing growth through acquisitions in the past decade. However, the strategy faced operational headwinds, supply-chain disruptions, and inflationary cost pressures, resulting in a stock below its 2022 all-time high of over $86.
Streetwise:
-Lipstick sales in developed markets like the U.S. are closely tied to the number of lips and inflation rate, with some brand-switching and trading up or down in price. However, a liponomics case study is playing out at the moment, as e.l.f. Beauty, known for $7 knock-offs of $50 lipstick brands, raises its prices by $1. This raises the price elasticity of demand, the tendency of customers to buy less of a good as prices rise. This uncertainty is leading to swings in the stock that would scare off a memecoin trader. e.l.f. Beauty, founded over two decades ago, has grown rapidly, offering more products and higher prices while still focusing on undercutting prestige brands. The company's CEO, Tarang Amin, has built a workforce that is 74% female, 76% Gen Z and millennial, and at home online, driving marketing and product development. Amin sees more rapid growth ahead, with Target leading rivals with a 21% share of its category. Overseas markets are only 20% of e.l.f. sales compared to more than half for some competitors.