Barron's Healthcare Roundtable, 25 Sept 2026
Context: Biotech has broken out after a three-year slump. XBI is up 28% YTD and IBB is up 24%, more than twice the S&P 500's gain. The panel gives three reasons: clearer drug-pricing policy after the late-2025 deals with the administration, strong M&A (Big Pharma needs to fill patent cliffs through 2032), and oncology wins. The biggest was Moderna/Merck's mRNA melanoma vaccine; Moderna jumped about 177% on 19 August.
Key points:
- Rotation risk: the Anthropic and OpenAI IPO filings could pull money back into tech (Risinger).
- China: a massive source of in-licensed molecules, which the panel sees as a positive for Big Pharma. The policy risk sits in PDUFA reauthorisation and outbound investment screening (COINS Act / BINSA).
- Cardio: a bad year (Novartis pelacarsen, Novo ziltivekimab). The next test is Amgen's olpasiran in 2028.
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Readouts to watch:
- BMS/J&J milvexian vs Eliquis (Q1 2027)
- Summit ivonescimab HARMONi-3 (H2 2026 / H1 2027)
- Moderna/Merck vaccine in melanoma (full data at ESMO, October) and in kidney cancer (Phase 2, around year-end)
- Closing view: bullish. M&A should favour SMIDs, and AI could lift R&D productivity (Goldman sees about 1.6x Phase 1/2 success rates for AI-designed drugs). Pricing criticism could return by 2028, when the three-year pricing agreements expire.
The 16 picks (prices as of 23/09/26)
David Risinger, Leerink
- Oruka Therapeutics (ORKA) $89.93: ultra-long-acting IL-23 for psoriasis; week-28 data end-Sept, week-52 in Dec; peak sales >$5bn vs ~$6bn market cap
- Vaxcyte (PCVX) $56.50: VAX-31 pneumococcal vaccine; adult Phase 3 by end-Oct
- Scribe Therapeutics (SCTX) $26.53: epigenetic silencing / gene editing; LDL Phase 1 data H1 2027
- Latigo Biotherapeutics (LTGO) $19.97: non-opioid pain drug, looks better than Vertex's Journavx in cross-trial comparisons
- First Tracks Biotherapeutics (TRAX) $36.66: CD-122 antagonist in celiac; Phase 1b readouts Q4 and Q1
Evan McCulloch, Franklin Templeton
- BeOne Medicines (ONC) $365.00: top pick; Brukinsa now No. 1 share, with sonrotoclax and a BTK degrader next
- Revolution Medicines (RVMD) $190.74: Rasonque in pancreatic cancer; $10bn+ opportunity in newly diagnosed patients
- BridgeBio Pharma (BBIO) $65.71: Attruby at $3–4bn, plus 3 approvals expected within 12 months
Salveen Richter, Goldman Sachs (all Buy)
- Vertex (VRTX) $516.34: five verticals; povetacicept PDUFA 30 Nov; recently acquired Crinetics
- Biogen (BIIB) $227.53: Apellis acquisition; subcutaneous Leqembi; 2027 catalysts
- Amgen (AMGN) $406.09: MariTide obesity Phase 3 in H1 2027
- Immunome (IMNM) $24.24: varegacestat for desmoid tumours (~$1.6bn peak); ROR1 ADC data in Dec
- Taysha Gene Therapies (TSHA) $4.91: Rett syndrome gene therapy; pivotal data early 2027
Nilesh Kumar, Wellington
- MBX Biosciences (MBX) $57.89: long-acting obesity drug, plus a Phase 3 in hypoparathyroidism
- Korsana Biosciences (KRSA) $32.30: Alzheimer's drugs with a brain shuttle
- Avere Therapeutics (private): oral IL-23 for psoriasis; merging with NextCure, to list on Nasdaq as AVRX
Read across ABVX : MBX, Avere and Oruka show that the panel is still betting on differentiated oral and long-acting immunology drugs.