Asian Mid-session Update: Abenomics mandate affirmed as ruling LDP retains supermajority; Australia widens budget deficit forecast
***Economic Data***
- (JP) JAPAN Q4 TANKAN MANUFACTURING INDEX: 12 V 13E; LARGE ALL INDUSTRIAL CAPEX Y/Y: 8.9% V 8.1%E; LARGE MANUFACTURING OUTLOOK: 9 V 13E
- (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV NEW MOTOR VEHICLE SALES M/M: -0.6% (2nd consecutive decline) V -1.8% PRIOR; Y/Y: -3.8% V -0.6% PRIOR
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND OCT PERFORMANCE SERVICES INDEX: 54.8 V 57.0 PRIOR (9-month low)
- (UK) UK DEC RIGHTMOVE HOUSE PRICES M/M: -3.3% V -1.7% PRIOR; Y/Y: 7.0% V 8.5% PRIOR
***Index Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 -1.0%, S&P/ASX -0.5%, Kospi -0.4%, Shanghai Composite -0.8%, Hang Seng -1.1%, Mar S&P500 +0.4% at 1,998
***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Feb gold -0.4% at $1,218, Jan crude oil +0.6% at $58.16/brl, Mar copper flat at $2.93/lb
- (AE) UAE Oil Min Suhail Al-Mazrouei: Will not change our mind on supply if prices go to $60 or to $40 - CNN interview
- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥110B in JGB with maturity less than 1-yr, ¥240B in 10-25yr JGB and ¥160B in JGB with maturity over 25-yr
- (KR) South Korea MoF sells 10-yr govt bond at 2.675%
- USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point 6.1152 v 6.1184 prior setting (strongest since Feb 20th)
***Market Focal Points/Key Themes/FX***
- Last week's volatility has carried over into the new Asian trading session, as regional indices track the slump in the US markets on Friday even as SP500 futures point to a higher open. USD/JPY reflects the swings in overall sentiment, initially falling about 100pips to 117.80 before rebounding toward 118.70 in early afternoon session. Japan's ruling LDP party passed the snap elections test with flying colors, retaining the 2/3 supermajority with about 326 seats in the 475-seat lower house of Parliament. Govt officials have indicated that all cabinet posts will be unchanged, while cabinet sec Suga noted economic revival remains the govt's top priority. Separately out of Japan, BOJ's Q4 Tankan survey saw Manufacturing slip by a point to +12 and Outlook miss consensus by 3pts at +9. Industrial CapEx growth was higher than expected however, and Non-Manufacturing sectors were slightly better than expected. BOJ noted the relative underperformance of smaller sector of the economy demonstrates the impact of weak Yen on business sentiment.
- Australia is dealing with a hostage situation in Sydney, as one suspected Islamist terrorist is allegedly holding hostages in a cafe. AUD/USD opened lower by about 50pips in the first two hours to test $0.82 handle before paring about half of those losses. Australia's Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) contained few surprises in its gloomy assessment, widening its projections for FY14/15 budget deficit to A$40.4B v A$29.8B prior forecast and the following year to deficit A$31.2B v A$17.1B prior forecast. Australia govt also sees unemployment rising to 6.5% by middle of 2015 and staying there in FY15/16 before falling to 6% in FY16/17 and 5.75% in FY17/18. Earlier, Treasurer Hockey said the decline in iron ore prices has been much steeper than expected as the decline in terms of trade would be the highest on record. Australia based it forecasts on iron ore prices of $60/ton, down another 15% from current levels.
- Out of China, the 2015 macroeconomic forecast issued by the PBoC saw 2015 GDP potentially slowing to 7.1% and CPI to 2.2% vs their 2014-end estimates of 7.4% and 2.0% respectively. Export growth was raised to 6.9% vs 6.1% prior target, but also warned on 2015 macro risks including geopolitical effect on European economy, possible faster than expected rate hikes in US, significant decline in China property prices. Property developer giant Vanke president said the impact of the recent PBoC rate cut was limited, with many 2nd and 3rd tier cities still facing downward price pressure due to inventory oversupply. Meanwhile China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) chairman noted the govt will promote IPO reforms and appropriately add more IPOs every month, presumably in response to the recent outsized rally in the A-shares.
- Over the weekend, US Senate passed the $1.1T spending bill by a 56-40 vote, effectively ending the threat of a govt shutdown. President Obama was expected to sign legislation into law before federal spending authority expires at midnight on Wednesday.
***Equities***
US markets/ADRs:
- PETM: Consortium led by BC Partners to Acquire PetSmart for $83.00/Share in Cash or about $8.7B
- PBR: Reports Q3 Rev BRL88.4B v BRL77.7B y/y; delays release of full unaudited Q3 results because of new facts in corruption investigation
Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer Discretionary: Sichuan Chengfei Integration Technology 002190.CN -10.0% (suspends major restructure plan); Midea Group 000333.CN +6.3% (Xiaomi to subscribe stake); Skilled Group SKE.AU -4.1% (appoints new CEO); STW Communications Group SGN.AU -9.7% (FY14 guidance); Recall Holdings REC.AU +17.1% (rejects acquisition proposal)
- Materials: MTS.AU -1.3% (UBS cuts stake); Tokyo Steel Mfg 5423.JP +7.1% (exit production at Okayama; maintains product prices)
- Energy: APA Group APA.AU -4.2% (FY15 guidance)