Asian Market Update: G20 message underwhelms; Yuan fix weaker despite China pledge to avoid competitive devaluation
***Economic Data***
- (JP) JAPAN JAN PRELIMINARY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 3.7% (biggest increase since Jan 2015, first rise in 3 months) V 3.2%E; Y/Y: -3.8% V -3.8%E
- (JP) JAPAN JAN RETAIL SALES M/M: -1.1% V 0.1%E; RETAIL TRADE Y/Y: -0.1% V 0.1%E
- (JP) JAPAN JAN ANNUALIZED HOUSING STARTS: 873K V 870KE; Y/Y: 0.2% V -0.3%E
- (JP) JAPAN JAN VEHICLE PRODUCTION Y/Y: -5.8% V -2.3% PRIOR
- (AU) AUSTRALIA Q4 COMPANY OPERATING PROFIT Q/Q: -2.8% (biggest decline in 6 quarters) V -1.8%E; INVENTORIES Q/Q: -0.4% V 0.1%E
- (AU) AUSTRALIA FEB TD SECURITIES INFLATION M/M: -0.2% V 0.4% PRIOR; Y/Y: 2.1% V 2.3% PRIOR
- (AU) AUSTRALIA JAN PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT M/M: 0.5% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 6.5% V 6.5%E
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND JAN BUILDING PERMITS M/M: -8.2% V +2.3% PRIOR; first decline in 4 months
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND FEB ANZ ACTIVITY OUTLOOK: 25.5 V 34.4 PRIOR; BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 7.1 V 23.0 PRIOR
- (NZ) New Zealand Jan M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 7.6% v 8.1% prior
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA MAR BUSINESS MANUFACTURING SURVEY: 66 V 66 PRIOR; NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY: 67 V 68 PRIOR
***Index Snapshot (as of 05:00 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +0.2%, S&P/ASX flat, Kospi flat, Shanghai Composite -3.7%, Hang Seng -1.2%, Mar S&P500 -0.3% at 1,937
***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Apr gold +0.6% at $1,228/oz, Apr crude oil +0.5% at $32.95/brl, Mar copper -0.1% at $2.12/lb
- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings rise 2.1 tonnes to 762.4 tonnes; Highest since Mar 2015
- USD/CNY: *(CN) PBOC SETS YUAN MID POINT AT 6.5452 V 6.5338 PRIOR; weakest Yuan setting since Feb 3rd ; 5th consecutive weaker setting
- (CN) PBOC to inject CNY230B in 7-day reverse repos
- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥400B in 1-3yr JGBs, ¥420B in 3-5yr JGBs, ¥260B in 10-25r JGBs, and ¥180B in JGBs with maturity over 25-yr
- (KR) South Korea MoF sells 20-yr bonds at 1.855%
***Market Focal Points/FX***
- Asian equity markets are mixed though the mood is generally that of disappointment, as G20 hardly broke any new ground on coordinating a global response to economic challenges. Nikkei225 is in marginal positive territory on the heels of JPY weakness on Friday that followed stronger US GDP revisions and inflation data, though USD/JPY has already erased most of those gains and retreated back below ¥113 handle. Shanghai Composite is down sharply, with weakness attributed both to the uneventful G20 in Shanghai and another weaker CNY fix sparking concerns over outflows. In FX, NZD/USD was down another 60pips at a 1-week low around $0.6560 on soft building permits and ANZ confidence data, while AUD/USD traded in a 40pip range above $0.71 level.
- G20 meeting is perceived as a whimper with familiar vague rhetoric. Communique underscored members' "readiness to respond to emerging risks, explore policy options, and safeguard financial stability." There was some focus on Chinese Yuan, though IMF's Lagarde said the message is generally that there will not be a large-scale devaluation. Nevertheless, PBoC maintained its string of weaker CNY fixes for the 5th straight session with the highest midpoint since Feb 3rd. Also of note in China, Social Security Minister estimated as many as 1.8M jobs lost in coal and steel sectors this year to reduce overcapacity, while a local press report speculated that the govt may raise retirement age in 2017.
- Over in Japan, BOJ Gov Kuroda reiterated the central bank stands ready to lower rates further if necessary, monitoring the impact of negative rates on markets and real economy. Japan economic data were mixed with improved industrial production against weaker retail sales in January. Meanwhile, a poll out of the Nikkei suggested that the public's patience with the govt is wearing thin, as support for Abenomics policies fell to a record low of 31%.
- With anticipated ECB meeting coming into focus in March, German and French board members sparred about the need for anticipated extra easing measures. Germany's Weidmann said it would be dangerous to further expand already highly accommodative monetary policy given the longer-term risks and side effects of negative rates. France's Villeroy said deflation remains the primary risk to the Eurozone, adding more action is warranted if low energy prices materialize into sustainable long-term effects. Bank of England's former governor King weighed in with a downbeat view of the entire euro zone union, stating EZ is doomed to fail as monetary union "created a conflict between a centralized elite on the one hand and the forces of democracy at the national level", producing dangerous consequences.
***Equities***
- Nissan 7201.jp: To buy back up to ¥400B through share repurchase program (approx 10% of market cap); +7.0%
- RSG.AU: Reports H1 Net A$106.9M v A$323.8M y/y; Rev A$248.6M v A$208.6M y/y; +6.7%
- HVN.AU: Macquarie Raised HVN.AU to Neutral from Underperform; +5.5%
- Nintendo 7974.JP: Cuts FY15/16 Net ¥17B, Op to ¥33.0B, Rev ¥500B (Net ¥35.0B, Op Profit ¥50.0B, Rev ¥570B prior); expects ¥20B FX loss in non-operating expenses; -0.7%
- Sharp 6753.JP: Hon Hai still expected to finalize agreement to acquire Sharp on Mar 7th - Japan press; -2.3%
- SGH.AU: Reports H1 Net loss A$958.3M v profit A$33.7M y/y; Rev A$487.5M v A$486.5M y/y; -30.1%
- HAL: DOJ reportedly pushing Halliburton to sell more assets before approving its bid for Baker Hughes - NY Post