Asian Market Update: RBA on hold, expects inflation to remain in target range; Aussie retail spending and trade deficit rise
***Economic Data*** - (AU) RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) LEAVES CASH RATE TARGET UNCHANGED AT 2.50%; AS EXPECTED (14TH STRAIGHT PAUSE) - (AU) AUSTRALIA SEPT TRADE BALANCE (A$): -2.3B V -1.78BE (largest deficit in 22 months) - (AU) AUSTRALIA SEPT RETAIL SALES M/M: 1.2% V 0.3%E (8-month high) - (AU) Australia ABS revised Sept employment higher to -23.7K from -29.7K, unemployment rate revised higher to 6.2% from 6.1% - (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: 114.6 v 114.6 prior - (JP) JAPAN OCT FINAL MARKIT/JMMA MANUFACTURING PMI: 52.4 V 52.8 PRELIM - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND OCT ANZ COMMODITY PRICE M/M: -0.8% (8th month of decline) V -1.3% PRIOR - (KR) SOUTH KOREA OCT CPI M/M: -0.3% V -0.1%E; Y/Y: 1.2% V 1.3%E; CORE CPI Y/Y: 1.8% V 1.9%E
***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)*** - Nikkei225 +3.5%, S&P/ASX +0.3%, Kospi -0.9%, Shanghai Composite flat, Hang Seng +0.2%, Dec S&P500 -0.1% at 2,009
***Commodities/Fixed Income*** - Dec gold -0.2% at $1,167, Dec crude oil -0.5% at $78.38/brl - (AU) Australia Port Hedland Oct iron ore shipments 37.5M tonnes v 36.3M prior - (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥550B in 1-3yr JGB, ¥550B in 3-5yr JGB, ¥240B in 10-25yr JGB and ¥120B in JGB with maturity over 25-yr ; Also to buy ¥2.25T in T-bills - USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1543 v 6.1525 prior setting (weakest since Sept 4th) - (CN) PBoC to drain CNY20B in 14-day repos (27th consecutive drain); Offer yield at 3.4%, unchanged from prior
***Market Focal Points/Key Themes/FX*** - AUD trading was rather volatile amid a set of economic data and a policy statement from the RBA. Stronger than expected retail sales initially gave the aussie a lift, before disappointing trade and an upward revision in unemployment sent AUD/USD to its lows around $0.8650. The reaction to the RBA statement was largely positive however, and AUD/USD spiked up to its highs of $0.8730. RBA left rates on hold for the 14th time, adding the exchange rate is "above estimates of fundamental value particularly given further declines in key commodity prices." On inflation, the RBA added that recent data on prices confirmed that inflation is running between 2-3%, reiterating it would also be consistent with the target over the next two years.
- Japan Final manufacturing PMI was revised slightly lower, as resident economist cited the benefit of weaker JPY outweighed by output expansion failing to accelerate. PM Abe's economic advisor Hamada urged for the consumption tax increase to be delayed by 18 months. A Fitch report stated the surprise decision by the BoJ to increase its asset purchases is indicative of the challenges confronting the Abenomics agenda, while Moody's said the added QE was a positive development. USD/JPY is coming off its US session highs of 114.20, falling below 113.50 amid an overall USD retreat. Nikkei225 has returned from the holiday with a steep rally tracking softer Yen, rising well over 3%.
- In other USD majors, EUR/USD was up about 50pips at $1.2530, GBP/USD rose 30pips toward the $1.60 level, and USD/CHF fell nearly 40 pips below 0.9630 - these all mark the first USD decline in 5 days. Gold was holding above 1,160, while Silver fell another 1% below $16.
- In China, PBoC once again maintained the offering yield on its 14-day repo operations. Hong Kong's CY Leung said he would for the central govt support for Shanghai-Hong Kong stock connect trading.
***Equities*** US markets: - THC: Reports Q3 $0.10 v $0.10e, R$4.18B v $4.01Be; +3.3% afterhours - LB: Guides Q3 higher to $0.38-0.40 v $0.32e ($0.26-0.31 prior), Oct SSS in low single digits; +3.2% afterhours - AIG: Reports Q3 $1.21 v $1.08e, R$8.95Bv $9.77Be; +0.8% afterhours - MRO: Reports Q3 $0.57 v $0.58e, R$2.97B v $2.96Be; +0.8% afterhours
- JPM: FX trading unit in a criminal probe by the DOJ in the US; Also probed by UK's FCC as well as CFTC in the US - filing; -0.4% afterhours - CYH: Reports Q3 $1.00 v $0.75e, R$4.80B v $4.96Be; -1.4% afterhours - AGU: Reports Q3 $0.60 adj v $0.52e, R$2.92B v $3.03Be; Increase annualized dividend by 4% to $3.12/shr; -1.4% afterhours - S: Reports Q2 -$0.19 v -$0.05e, R$8.49B v $8.65Be; To cut 2,000 jobs; -7.9% afterhours - HLF: Reports Q3 $1.45 v $1.53e, R$1.30B v $1.33Be; -13.0% afterhours - SALE: Reports Q3 $0.16 v $0.13e, R$56.5M v $55.7Me; Announces CFO transition; -20.6% afterhours
Notable movers by sector: - Consumer staples: Woolworths Limited WOW.AU -2.5% (Q1 results) - Financials: Sinolink Securities 600109.CN +0.9% (acquisition) - Materials: Mirabela MBN.AU -20.6% (Q3 nickel production results) - Industrials: Great Wall Motor 2333.HK +7.3% (Oct production results); Honda Motor 7267.JP +3.2%, Toyota Motor 7203.JP +4.1%, Nissan Motor 7201.JP +3.5% (Yen weaker over the weekend); Worley Parsons WOR.AU +0.9% (awarded contract) - Technology: FujiFilm Holdings 4901.JP +1.7% (to invest in R&D facilities)