Asian Market Update: China official PMIs slow further; AUD hits new lows on sliding building permits
***Economic Data***
- (CN) CHINA OCT NON-MANUFACTURING PMI: 53.8 V 54.0 PRIOR (9-month low; 2nd decline)
- (CN) CHINA OFFICIAL OCT MANUFACTURING PMI: 50.8 V 51.2E (5-MONTH LOW; 3rd decline)
- (CN) CHINA OCT FINAL HSBC MANUFACTURING PMI: 50.4 V 50.4E (3-month high)
- (AU) AUSTRALIA OCT TD SECURITIES INFLATION M/M: 0.2% (3-month high) V 0.1% PRIOR; Y/Y: 2.3% V 2.2% PRIOR
- (AU) AUSTRALIA SEPT BUILDING APPROVALS M/M: -11.0% (biggest decline since July 2012) V -1.0%E; Y/Y: -13.4% V -0.9%E
- (AU) AUSTRALIA OCT ANZ JOB ADS M/M: 0.2% (5-month low) V 0.8% PRIOR
- (AU) AUSTRALIA OCT RPDATA/RISMARK HOUSE PRICE INDEX M/M: 1.0% V 0.1% PRIOR
- (AU) AUSTRALIA OCT AIG PERFORMANCE OF MANUFACTURING INDEX: 49.4 V 46.5 PRIOR (3-month high, 3rd month of contraction)
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA OCT TRADE BALANCE: $7.5B V $5.0BE; Imports Y/Y: -3.0% v -1.3%e; Exports Y/Y: +2.5% v +1.4%e; $51.7B export volume is record high
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA OCT HSBC MANUFACTURING PMI: 48.7 V 48.8 PRIOR (2nd straight month of contraction)
***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 closed, S&P/ASX -0.4%, Kospi -0.5%, Shanghai Composite +0.5%, Hang Seng -0.1%, Dec S&P500 flat at 2,010
***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Dec gold -0.4% at $1,166, Dec crude oil -0.3% at $80.33/brl
- SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings fall to 10,711 tonnes from 10,681 tonnes prior; first rise since Oct 1st
- USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1525 v 6.1461 prior setting (weakest setting since Sept 29th)
- (KR) South Korea sells 30-yr bonds, avg yield 2.945%
- (KR) South Korea sells KRW1.6T 3-yr govt Bonds; avg yield of 2.135%; Bid-to-cover: 4.1x
***Market Focal Points/Key Themes/FX***
- A triple-header of China PMI releases remain indicative of a pullback in the world's 2nd biggest economy. China official manufacturing PMI released over the weekend slowed for the 3rd time to a new 5-month low, though it still remained above expansion threshold. Stats bureau economist added the "current economic growth is still showing some downward pressure", though he would not expect deterioration in the overall trend of PMI figures. Non-manufacturing PMI hit a 9-month low, falling for the 2nd straight month. Finally, the HSBC manufacturing PMI matched consensus and hit a 3-month high, but was also below the official print. HSBC economist said "manufacturing sector continued to stabilize in October, however the sequential momentum likely weakened."
- Separately on the mainland, an NDRC researcher estimated 2014 GDP at 7.4%, below the official 7.5% target, with retail sales of 12.2% also below 14.5% expected. Meanwhile, the timing on the much-anticipated Shanghai-Hong Kong trading link remains uncertain, with local press reporting the trials have only started in Hong Kong and not Shanghai. Recall last week, a govt official said that testing had entered a "final phase." In Hong Kong, chief sec Lam reiterated protesters demands for a "referendum" are not realistic, adding that the central govt has already heard and addressed the Occupy movement calls for democracy.
- USD/JPY opened up another 60pip near the ¥113 handle, but came off those highs later in the session. Markets in Tokyo were closed for trading but will return tomorrow with another healthy dose of earnings from some of Japan's large firms. Meanwhile, NHK reported the govt is considering options to pay for a corporate income tax cut - something that was previously deemed a compromise along with another round of a sales tax hike. For now, Moody's analysts are looking at the most recent events, calling expanded BOJ easing a "positive development."
- Australia ANZ job ads saw another sequential increase, though at the slowest rate in 5 months. ANZ economist said "the outlook for the economy is improving and the transition to non-mining drivers of growth appears to be occurring, if only gradually." Private sector gauge of inflation ticked up slightly but still remained near the bottom end of RBA target 2-3% range. Building approvals was the most notable datapoint from Australia, falling at the fastest pace m/m since mid-2012. AUD/USD fell to its worst levels on that report, hitting a 2-week low near the $0.87 handle. Australia earnings were highlighted by Westpac reporting slightly improved profits, but lower net interest margins, sending WBC shares down slightly.
- The breakaway Donetsk People's Republic in east Ukraine held its own regional elections, with the self-declared PM Zakharchenko emerging as a "winner" by a large margin. EU's Ashton confirmed that those results will not be recognized, though Russian foreign ministry endorsed the elections as a step toward a "mandate to resolve the practical issues of re-establishing normal life in the region."
***Equities***
US markets:
- SAPE: Publicis said to be in talks to acquire Sapient (market value $2.5B); Deal may be announced as soon as Monday - financial press
- AMRE: To be acquired by EDENS for $26.55/shr in all-cash deal valued at $763M
- HLF: To settle class action lawsuit, denies any liability
Notable movers by sector:
- Energy: Huadian Fuxin Energy 816.HK +2.0% (9-month results)
- Industrials: Xiamen International Airport 600897.CN +1.2%, Xiamen ITG Group Corp 600755.CN +7.3%, Xiamen Port Development 000905.CN +3.8% (China Pres visits Fujian Province)
- Financials: Westpac Banking WBC.AU -1.0% (FY14 results; lower net interest margin)
- Technology: Brambles Limited BXB.AU +1.6% (Q1 results; raises FY15 underlying profit guidance); HTC 2498.TW +3.0% (Oct results)
- Consumer staples: Woolworths Limited WOW.AU -4.8% (Q1 results)