Asian Market Update: China inflation slows while Australia retail sales surprise higher; BOK on hold as expected
***Observations/Insights*** - US retailers BBBY and ZUMZ down sharply in extended session after lowering guidance. - China inflation slows drastically - CPI fall 0.5pts to a 7-month lows. Food component of the CPI falls nearly 2pts to 4.1%. China trade data will be released in tomorrow's session. - Australia economic data coming in mixed/positive; Despite the soft imports component of the most recent Australia trade figures, retail sales outperform against estimates with a 5th consecutive month of increase. - Bank of Korea leaves rates on hold for the 8th consecutive month as expected. BOK Gov Kim maintains projections for 2014 GDP at 3.8% and also targets 2015 GDP at 4.0%. BOK also reiterated inflation will rise gradually, but remain low for time being.
***Economic Data*** - (CN) CHINA DEC CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) M/M: +0.3% V -0.1% PRIOR; Y/Y: 2.5% V 2.7%E (7-month low) - (CN) CHINA DEC PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI) Y/Y: -1.4% V -1.3%E (22nd month of decline) - (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV BUILDING APPROVALS M/M: -1.5% V -1.0%E (2nd consecutive decline); Y/Y: 22.2% V 21.1%E - (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.7% V 0.4%E (5th consecutive increase) - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND DEC ANZ COMMODITY PRICE M/M: +1.0% V -0.3% PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND NOV BUILDING PERMITS M/M: 11.1% V 0.3% PRIOR (largest increase in 7 months) - (KR) BANK OF KOREA (BOK) LEAVES 7-DAY REPO RATE UNCHANGED AT 2.50% (AS EXPECTED); (8TH STRAIGHT PAUSE) - (JP) JAPAN DEC TOKYO AVERAGE OFFICE VACANCIES: 7.3 V 7.5 PRIOR - (TH) THAILAND DEC CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 73.4 V 75.0 PRIOR (lowest level in 2-yrs) - (MY) MALAYSIA NOV INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: 4.4% V 2.9%E; MANUFACTURING SALES VALUE Y/Y: 4.4% V 1.9% PRIOR
***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - JGB: Japan Ministry of Finance (MOF) sells ¥299.5B in 0.1% CPI-linked 10-yr JGB auction, bid-to-cover ratio 2.87x v 3.74x prior - (CN) Daily Shibor fixings: O/N: 2.7940% v 2.8300% prior (12th consecutive decline, lowest since May 15th); 1-week: 4.0200% v 4.1260% prior (6th consecutive decline) - (CN) PBoC won't conduct open market operations (OMO) in today's session (5th consecutive session of halted operations); Zero net position this week v drained CNY29B in prior week - USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1109 v 6.1079 prior (weakest Yuan setting since Dec 25th) - GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 1.5 tonnes to 793.1 tonnes (lowest since Jan 2009)
- AUD initially rallied on higher retail sales but met some resistance in the $0.89 handle, selling down below $0.8870 in the afternoon session. Remaining dollar majors were little changed - EUR/USD was modestly firmer above $1.3590 ahead of the ECB decision, while USD/JPY pair is unable to sustain the momentum of 3 consecutive rising sessions to breach the ¥105 handle. NZD/USD was down about 20 pips below $0.8250, while KRW was stronger following the BOK decision - USD/KRW fell below KRW1,065 - second session of losses after 3 days of gains.
***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) Moody's analyst: global environment is the best in years; China economy to keep pace in 2014 - Shanghai Daily - (CN) China Iron and Steel Association (CISA): China average daily crude steel output 1.96M tonnes in late Dec, -2.7% from previous 10 days - financial press - (CN) China Guangdong Province reports 1 new case of H7N9 bird flu; Hong Kong confirms 1 new case of H7N9 bird flu - press - (JP) BOJ board member Shirai: BOJ may ease more 'without hesitation' if necessary; 2% inflation target is major transition in Japan policy; Sees limited upward pressure on JGB yields so far. - (IN) Moody's: India govt debt structure mitigates macro economic imbalances
***Equities*** Market Snapshot (as of 04:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 -1.5%, S&P/ASX -0.2%, Kospi -0.1%, Shanghai Composite +0.4%, Hang Seng -0.1%, Mar S&P500 flat at 1,832, Feb gold +0.1% at $1,227, Feb crude oil +0.7% at $92.58 /brl
US markets: - M: Affirms FY13 EPS guidance; Guides initial FY14 $4.40-4.50 v $4.34e, SSS +2.5-3.0%; Outlines Cost Reduction Initiatives (laying off 2500 workers, 1.4% of workforce) to Support Continued Profitable Sales Growth; savings expected at $100M per year beginning in 2014; +5.3% afterhours - GPN: Reports Q2 $1.02 v $1.02e, R$634.1M v $624Me; +5.1% afterhours - AGU: Announces strategic review of Agrium Advanced Technologies; to transition to two Strategic Business units, Wholesale and Retail in Q1; +2.5% afterhours - RT: Reports Q2 -$0.43 (adj) v -$0.24e, R$276.2M v $271Me; +2.4% afterhours - GG: Reports Q4 gold production 767.7K oz, +11% y/y; Guides 2014 gold production 3.0-3.15M oz, +13-18% y/y; +0.2% afterhours
- AAPL: Apple and Samsung agree to mediation in US patent dispute on or before Fed 19th, with CEOs present - financial press cites court filing; flat afterhours
- DISH: Said to have pulled its bid for Lightsquared; flat afterhours - EXFO: Reports Q1 -$0.01 v +$0.02e, R$56M v $61Me (only 2 ests); saw lower bookings from key customers; -4.8% afterhours - BBBY: Reports Q3 $1.12 v $1.15e, R$2.87B v $2.89Be; Lowers FY13 guidance; Lowers Q4 SSS guidance to 2-4% v 3.5-5.5% prior forecast; FY13 SSS +2.5-3.1% - conf call; -8.4% afterhours - ZUMZ: Reports Dec SSS -2.4% v +1.7%e; Lowers Q4 guidance to $0.56-0.59 v $0.69e; Rev to $226-229M v $234Me (guided R$230-237M prior); -8.5% afterhours
Notable movers by sector: - Consumer discretionary: Qantas QAN.AU +1.6% (Moody's ratings action); Huayi Brothers Media 300027.CN +3.7%, Zhejiang Huace Film & TV 300133.CN +4.8%, China Television Media 600088.CN +2.6% (continued momentum on China box office results) - Industrials: Beijing Jiaxun Feihong Electrical 300213.CN +3.5% (FY13 guidance) - Energy: Offshore Oil Engineering 600583.CN +9.9% (FY13 guidance) - Financials: Agile Property Holdings 3383.HK +2.5% (FY13 guidance); Road King Infrastructure 1098.HK +1.7% (2013 contracted sales); Poly Real Estate 600048.CN +2.5% (Dec contracted sales) - Technology: Shenzhen Changfang Light Emitting Diode Lighting 300301.CN +2.3% (awarded order); Sony 6758.JP +4.0% (CEO comments); Canon -2.0% (speculation on FY13 result) - Materials: Gansu Gangtai Holding Group 600687.CN +8.1% (FY13 guidance) - Healthcare: Guilin Layn Natural Ingredients 002166.CN +2.3%, Beijing Tiantan Biological Products 1.2%, Shenzhen Neptunus Bioengineering +2.1% (1 new case of H7N9) - Utilities: TEPCO 9501.JP -1.0% (Dutch pension fund sells stake; regulator may submit report on Fukushima)