Asian Market Update: Retreat in China property prices accelerates
***Economic Data*** - (CN) CHINA MAY NEW HOME PRICES M/M: PRICES RISE IN 15 OF 70 CITIES V 44 PRIOR; Y/Y: PRICES RISE IN 69 OF 70 CITIES V 69 PRIOR - (SL) SRI LANKA LEAVES REVERSE REPO RATE UNCHANGED AT 8.00%; LEAVES REPURCHASE RATE UNCHANGED AT 6.50% (EXPECTED) - (AU) AUSTRALIA MAY WESTPAC LEADING INDEX: +0.1% V -0.5% PRIOR - (AU) Australia Apr Conference Board Leading Index: -0.1% (first decline in 8 months) v +0.2% prior - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q1 CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE (NZ$): 1.40B (1st surplus in 4 years; Largest surplus on record) V 1.40BE; CURRENT ACCOUNT GDP RATIO YTD: -2.8% (smallest deficit in 3 years) V -2.8%E - (JP) JAPAN MAY MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE: -¥909.0B V -¥1.19TE ; ADJ TRADE BALANCE: -¥862.2B V -¥1.03TE - (JP) BANK OF JAPAN (BOJ) RELEASES MINUTES FROM MAY 21 MEETING; ALL MEMBERS AGREE IMPACT OF SALES TAX RISE WITHIN EXPECTATIONS
Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 +0.4%, S&P/ASX -0.1%, Kospi -0.4%, Shanghai Composite -0.2%, Hang Seng flat, Sept S&P500 flat at 1,934, Aug gold -0.1% at $1,270, Jul crude oil +0.3% at $106.71/brl
***Highlights/Observations/Insights*** - Adobe hit 52-week highs in extended session, rising nearly 10pct on much stronger than expected Q2 results. Creative Cloud subscriptions of 2.3M were +464K q/q. - New Zealand current account hit its first surplus in 4 years going into tomorrow's release of Q1 GDP. Also of note in New Zealand, Fonterra's dairy auction saw prices rise for the first time in 9 auctions. - China property sector prices rose m/m in just 15 out of 70 cities v 44 prior; Prices were flat in 20 cities and fell in 35 cities, rising sharply from 8 prior. - BOJ Meeting Minutes saw members agree the impact of sales tax hike is within expectations, potentially foreshadowing a Q2 contraction that would not be deeper than expected. Most members also noted that inflation expectations are rising and exports expected to increase moderately. Note that these minutes are for the meeting before this month's when BOJ reiterated its assessment on all sectors of the economy. Today's Japan merch trade data was also mixed - deficit was smaller than expected, but both imports and exports fell (imports marked 1st decline in 19 months and exports saw 1st decline in 15 months)
- USD majors are in narrow ranges going into today's FOMC meeting. EUR/USD and USD/JPY in 10-pip ranges below $1.3550 and ¥102.22. AUD/USD and NZD/USD in 15-pip ranges below $0.9345 and $0.8665. USD was higher across the board after the US CPI data, with the yield on the 10-year rising to 1-month high of 2.66%.
***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (US) Fed watcher Hilsenrath (WSJ) comments on the debate within the Fed regarding the labor market and the long-term unemployed - (CN) PBoC Chief Economist Ma Jun: CNY close to equilibrium level with current account surplus close to normal - Chinese press - (CN) According to PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), China's liberal interest rates pose the biggest challenge to China banks - Shanghai Daily (CN) China Merchants Securities: PBoC could cut RRR for Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Bank of Beijing, AgBank - Chinese press - (CN) China Merchants Securities: PBoC could cut RRR for Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Bank of Beijing, AgBank - Chinese press - (JP) Japan Econ Min Amari seeking corporate tax rates comparable to those seen in Germany - Japanese press - (NZ) New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) chief economist Eaqub: Latest interest rate hike by the RBNZ is a "huge mistake" that punishes economically struggling provinces - NZ press
***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - (CN) China MoF sells 10-year bonds, avg yield 4% - US financial press - (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1559 v 6.1529 prior setting (weakest Yuan setting since June 6th) - (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥150B in JGB with maturity over 10-yr and ¥140B in floating rate notes - (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$700M in 2.75% bonds due 2024; Avg yield: 3.7393%; Bid-to-cover: 3.17x
- SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings fall to 10,262 tonnes from 10,321 tonnes prior (lowest since May 1st) - GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 0.3 tonnes to 782.6 tonnes (lowest since May 23rd) - (US) API PETROLEUM INVENTORIES: CRUDE: -5.7M (largest draw since May 20th) v -1Me, GASOLINE: -48K v +0.5Me, DISTILLATE: +531K v +0.5Me - (NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade auction: Dairy Trade price index: +0.9% from prior auction (first rise in 9 auctions)
***Equities*** US markets: - ADBE: Reports Q2 $0.37 v $0.29e, R$1.07B v $1.03Be; Guides Q3 $0.22-0.28 v $0.27e, R$975M-1.025B v $1.02Be - slides; +9.4% afterhours - AES: Reaches Agreement to Sell Majority of Its Solar Business for up to $207M; +0.2% afterhours - GWPH: Offering 1.7M ADS (9% of shares outstanding); -5.1% afterhours - LZB: Reports Q4 $0.33 (adj) v $0.33e, R$353M v $368Me; -10.7% afterhours - ECYT: Regains worldwide rights to Vintafolide; Merck no longer wants to pursue development; -19.4% afterhours
Notable movers by sector: - Consumer Discretionary: Chow Tai Fook Jewelry Group 1929.HK +2.9% (FY13 results); Komeri 8218.JP -3.3% (analyst action); Echo Entertainment Group EGP.AU +0.7% (analyst action); JB Hi-Fi JBH.AU +2.2% (analyst action) - Materials: Aquila Resources AQA.AU +7.2% (recommends shareholders to accept offer) - Industrials: AVIC Aircraft 000768.CN +1.5%, Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry 600316.CN +2.7%, Sichuan Chengfei Integration Technology 002190.CN +7.1% (China Press comments on Air Force) - Technology: Nikon Corp 7731.JP -3.3% (FY16 guidance; analyst action) - Healthcare: PKU International Healthcare Group Southwest Pharmaceutical 000788.CN +10.0% (acquisition)