Asian Mid-session Update: China HSBC Flash PMI falls into contraction for the first time in 8 months
***Economic Data***
- (CN) CHINA HSBC DEC FLASH MANUFACTURING PMI: 49.5 V 49.8E (7-month low, 1st contraction in 7 months)
- (CN) CHINA NOV ACTUAL FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI) Y/Y: +22.2% V +1.1%E; First rise in 5 months
- (JP) JAPAN DEC PRELIM MARKIT/JMMA MANUFACTURING PMI: 52.1 V 52.0 PRIOR
- (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: 110.2 v 110.4 prior
- (RU) RUSSIA CENTRAL BANK (CBR) RAISES ONE-WEEK AUCTION RATE BY 650BPS TO 17.00%; Cites rising currency devaluation and inflation risks- EMERGENCY MEETING
***Index Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 -1.8%, S&P/ASX -0.5%, Kospi -0.5%, Shanghai Composite +0.7%, Hang Seng -1.2%, Mar S&P500 +0.2% at 1,987
***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Feb gold -0.9% at $1,196, Jan crude oil -0.5% at $55.61/brl
- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 2.4 tonnes to 723.4 tonnes
- (CN) PBoC won't conduct open market operations (OMO) in today's session (6th consecutive halt)
- JGB: (JP) Japan's MoF sells ¥2.49T in 0.1% (0.1% prior) 5-yr notes; Avg yield: 0.083% v 0.160% prior; Bid to cover: 4.24x v 3.70x prior
- JGB: Japan's 5-yr JGB yield falls to record low 0.06% following MoF auction
***Market Focal Points/Key Themes/FX***
- Tokyo stocks are leading the decline once again as the reversal in overextended Yen weakness continues to highlight the general risk-off environment. USD/JPY fell to within 10pips of its 3-week lows near 117.30, while the latest 5-year JGB auction saw very strong demand, taking the yield on the 5-yr to a record 0.06%. BOJ's Tankan survey of corporations revealed inflation expectations for 1-yr at 1.4% v 1.5% prior, 3-yr unchanged at 1.6%, and 5-yr unchanged at 1.7%. Separately, a note out of Moody's said the weekend parliament elections results were important for credit standing, but strong reforms are still required to make Abenomics successful.
- China flash manufacturing PMI contracted for the first time in 7 months, even though employment decrease slowed and new export orders increased faster. Disinflationary factors were increasingly more apparent and weighed on the index, with output and input prices decreasing at a faster rate. HSBC economist said about as much, stating "rising disinflationary pressures, which fundamentally reflect weak demand, warrant further monetary easing in the coming months." Separately, November FDI rose for the first time in 5 months, primarily boosted by the 7.9% YTD increase in the services component.
- Reserve Bank of Australia December meeting minutes offered mainly familiar tones for policy outlook, noting rate stability would be the most prudent course but also acknowledging increasing probability of further easing being priced in the fixed income markets. RBA also reiterated further fall in A$ is needed for the economy, and inflation outlook is consistent with the 2-3% target range. Out of New Zealand, the Finance Ministry gave up on posting a budget surplus in FY14/15 announcing it will not engage in slash and burn spending cuts to achieve surplus target. Fin Min English also noted dairy prices would fall further in the next few months but then recover in 2015.
- Russian Central Bank shocked the Ruble to a 10% spike after a surprise 650BPS rate hike to curb inflationary pressures from the weaker currency and prevent more outflows. USD/RUB fell as low as RUB60 in the Asian session after collapsing in the US hours, tracking the free-falling oil prices to mid $50's/brl.
***Equities***
US markets/ADRs:
- TLM: Board said to meet to review takeover offer from Repsol; Repsol's board said to have approved launching full takeover bid for Talisman - financial press; +19.9% afterhours
- FCEL: Reports Q4 -$0.02 v -$0.05 y/y, R$54.4M v $53Me; +6.5% afterhours
- BA: Increases share repurchase authorization to $12B (approx 13.7% of market cap), Raises dividend 25% to $0.91 from $0.73; +2.4% afterhours
- WHR: Guides initial FY15 Adj $14.00-15.00 v $14.57e; Cuts FY14 $10.90-11.10 v $11.67e (prior guided $11.50-12.00); +1.4% afterhours
- LLY: Increases quarterly dividend 2% to $0.50 from $0.49; -0.2% afterhours; +0.5% afterhours
- ESRX: Reaffirms FY14 $4.86-4.90 v $4.88e; approves additional 65M share buyback program (9% of shares outstanding); initiates CFO transition process; flat afterhours
- ADM: Olam to acquire ADM's worldwide cocoa business for $1.3B; flat afterhours
- KO: Guides FY14 currency neutral EPS growth expected to be 4% to 5% currency headwind of 7%; -0.2% afterhours
- PAY: Reports Q4 $0.44 v $0.41e, R$491M v $485Me; -0.6% afterhours
- ELY: Raises FY14 guidance to $0.17-0.19 v $0.18e (prior $0.15-0.18); Maintains Rev guidance of about +6%; Guides FY15 Rev +2-3%; -0.6% afterhours
Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer Discretionary: China Dongxiang Group 3818.HK +2.1% (FY14 guidance); Qantas Airways QAN.AU +4.9% (Nov Op result; WTI crude lower); Recall Holdings REC.AU -3.7% (Iron Mountain maintains bid); Skymark Airlines 9204.JP +21.6% (to start code share with ANA and JAL)
- Materials: BHP Billiton BHP.AU -3.2% (demerger plans in doubt due to iron ore, oil prices)
- Industrials: China Communications Construction 601800.CN +4.9 % (in talks for projects in Pakistan); China State Construction 601668.CN +0.3% (Nov new contract result); Wuhan Golden Laser 300220.CN +3.7% (private placement)