Asian Market Update: China Q2 GDP and June industrial output top estimates; Investors not impressed
***Economic Data*** - (CN) CHINA Q2 REAL GDP Q/Q: 2.0% V 1.8%E; Y/Y: 7.5% V 7.4%E; YTD Y/Y: 7.4% V 7.4%E - (CN) CHINA JUN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y: 9.2% (5-month high) V 9.0%E; YTD Y/Y: 8.8% V 8.8%E - (CN) CHINA JUN YTD FIXED URBAN ASSETS Y/Y: 17.3% V 17.2%E; first rise in 8 months - (CN) CHINA JUN RETAIL SALES Y/Y: 12.4% V 12.5%E; YTD Y/Y: 12.1% V 12.2%E - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q2 CPI Q/Q: 0.3% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 1.6% V 1.8%E - (KR) SOUTH KOREA JUN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 3.6% V 3.7%E - (CL) CHILE CENTRAL BANK CUTS OVERNIGHT RATE TARGET BY 25BPS TO 3.75%, AS EXPECTED
***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)*** - Nikkei225 flat, S&P/ASX -0.1%, Kospi -0.1%, Shanghai Composite -0.2%, Hang Seng +0.2%, Sept S&P500 flat at 1,967
***Commodities/Fixed Income/Currencies*** - Aug gold flat at $1,297, Aug crude oil +0.1% at $100.32/brl, Sept Copper flat at $3.25/lb - (NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade auction: Dairy Trade price index: -8.9% from prior auction; Matches biggest decline in nearly 2 years (update) - (US) API PETROLEUM INVENTORIES: CRUDE: -4.8M (3rd consecutive draw; largest draw since June 17th) v -2.5Me, GASOLINE: -1.6M v +1Me, DISTILLATE: +1.3M v +2Me - (CN) China Finance Ministry (MoF) sells 10-yr bonds at 4.1832% - (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$500M in 4.25% Bonds; Avg yield: 3.5922%; Bid-to-cover: 3.39x - USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1535 v 6.1490 prior setting (weakest Yuan setting since Jul 9th; 4th consecutive weaker setting)
- NZD/USD fell about 40pips following lower than expected Q2 CPI and then extended its decline to 3-week lows below $0.87. AUD/USD moved lower by about 25pips despite the higher than expected China GDP and IP figures. USD/JPY is up modestly in afternoon trade, rising about 10pips to ¥101.75.
***Market Focal Points/Key Themes*** - Shares of Intel were up 4.5% in extended session after beating Q2 estimates, raising guidance for the FY14, and announcing a $20B share buyback. Gross margins also showed an impressive expansion to 64.5% from 58.4% y/y. Yahoo missed its numbers and also said it is keeping a bigger stake of Alibaba. CEO Mayer noted that several areas did show strength, particularly Yahoo search which grew sales by 6%. Shares of YHOO were down over 2% afterhours.
- China Q2 GDP and June industrial production topped expectations, however risk-on assets as AUD, SP500 futures, and China stocks are falling modestly post-data. Investors appear to be less inclined to anticipate a more aggressive round of stimulus beyond the "targeted measures." Property sector components of the Fixed Urban Asset investment were also troubling, with sales falling 6.7% YTD, property construction falling 16%, and home sales value down over 9%. NBS also remained downbeat, stating the H1 cooling in the property market represents a reasonable adjustment that could create more pressure on broader economy in near term.
- Rio Tinto and Fortescue posted their quarterly production figures. Rio iron ore output rose 11% y/y and copper rose 50% y/y, as company affirmed FY production outlook for the former and raised that of the latter. Fortescue Q4 output rose to 43.8M tons from 34.3M tons y/y. FMG offered initial iron ore shipment target for FY15 at 155M-160MT vs 124.2MT y/y in FY14.
- South Korea newly appointed Fin Min Choi announced he would take a proactive approach, promising to act preemptively against risks to economy. Korean press reported the govt will invest KRW31T to help spur economy, though the bulk of that would be allocated in FY15. BOK Gov Lee was also increasingly more dovish, noting s growth potential has been falling and smaller companies require help for sustainable growth.
***Equities*** US markets: - INTC: Reports Q2 $0.55 v $0.52e, R$13.8B v $13.6Be; Board authorizes $20B (12.7% of market cap) increase to share repurchase program; +4.5% afterhours - CTAS: Reports Q4 $0.76 (adj for Shred-it transaction) v $0.75e, R$1.16B v $1.17Be; +1.6% afterhours - AAPL: Creates partnership with IBM to Transform Enterprise Mobility; IBM to sell Apple devices with newly created business apps using IBM big data to clients worldwide; +1.6% afterhours - ZIPR: To be acquired by Realogy for $6.75/shr in cash; Total deal value $166M; +112% afterhours
- HSY: Reports prelim Q2 $0.75-0.77 v $0.75e, Rev +4.5%; Guides FY14 EPS at low end of $4.05-4.13 v $4.11e, net sales growth to be around the low end of its long-term 5-7% target; increases prices ~8%; -0.3% afterhours - CSX: Reports Q2 $0.53 v $0.52e, R$3.24B (record high) v $3.25Be; reaffirms FY earnings guidance; -0.5% afterhours - YHOO: Reports Q2 $0.37 v $0.39e, R$1.04B v $1.09Be; amends share repurchase agreement with Alibaba, lowering number of shares to be sold in Alibaba IPO; -2.2% afterhours
Notable movers by sector: - Materials: Iluka Resources ILU.AU +3.4% (Q2 results); Rio Tinto RIO.AU +1.0% (Q2 production results); Fortescue Metals FMG.AU +3.0% (Q4 production results) - Energy: Cofco Biochemical 000930.CN +10.0%, COFCO Property Group 000031.CN +10.0% (China SOE reform trial); Huadian Power International Corp 1071.HK +5.4% (H1 guidance); Huaneng Power International 902.HK +1.4% (H1 power generation results); JX Holdings 5020.JP 1.3% (fueling station expansion plans) - Technology: NHN 035420.KR -3.3% (unit Line files for IPO); Leshi Internet Info & Tech 300104.CN -5.4% (Hearing China to tighten regulations on TV set top boxes); Toshiba 6502.JP +1.1% (Awarded supply order)