Asian Market Update: Australia trade posts unexpected deficit; Sprint on track for T-Mobile deal; All eyes on ECB decision
***Economic Data*** - (AU) AUSTRALIA APR TRADE BALANCE (A$): -122M V +510ME (1st deficit in 6 months) - (CN) CHINA MAY HSBC SERVICES PMI: 50.7 V 51.4 PRIOR (4-month low); COMPOSITE PMI: 50.2 V 49.5 PRIOR - (KR) SOUTH KOREA Q1 FINAL GDP Q/Q: 0.9% V 0.9% PRIOR; Y/Y: 3.9% V 3.9% PRIOR - (KR) SOUTH KOREA MAY FOREIGN RESERVES: $360.9B V $355.9B PRIOR - (HK) HONG KONG MAY HSBC PMI: 49.1 V 49.7 PRIOR (3rd consecutive contraction, lowest since June 2013) - (PH) PHILIPPINES MAY CPI M/M: 0.5% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 4.5% V 4.2%E; CORE CPI Y/Y: 3.1% V 2.9%E - (TW) TAIWAN MAY CPI Y/Y 1.6% V 1.7%E; WPI Y/Y: 1.2% V 0.6%E
Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 +0.1%, S&P/ASX -0.1%, Kospi -0.9%, Shanghai Composite flat, Hang Seng -0.2%, Jun S&P500 flat at 1,925, Aug gold -0.1% at $1,244, Jul crude oil -0.3% at $102.35/brl
***Highlights/Observations/Insights*** - Fed's Beige Book retaining upbeat tone, noting growth was modest to moderate in most regions, consumer spending expanded, lending increased, and labor market strengthened. Fed continues to see inflation under control though - "wage pressures subdued" and "price pressures contained." Yield on the 10-year rose for the 3rd straight day, topping 2.60% at the close for the first time in 3 weeks.
- Australia terms of trade hit a surprising deficit after 5 months of surplus. Exports to China fell 3.8% to A$9.15B, iron ore exports rose 6.3% but only after a sharp downward revision for last month, and crude oil exports fell 7%. Overall export value continued to fall, down another 1%, while imports rose 2% after coming in flat last month. AUD/USD fell about 15pips below $0.9260 but recovered after an upbeat report from Moody's on Australia's RMBS.
- Shares of T-Mobile were up modestly in extended session after renewed speculation of a takeover by Sprint. Reports emerged that Sprint is offering half-cash half-stock proposal at about $40/shr, the two companies are near accord and working toward a formal contract.
- China released its last PMIs for May, with HSBC Services posting a 4-month low but composite returning to expansion territory. HSBC chief economist said employment component remained at a relatively low level, reiterating conditions justify easier monetary and fiscal policies in the coming months.
- Fixed income markets are holding out for a critical ECB decision that could renew volatile conditions for the single currency. Consensus calls for ECB main refi rate to be cut by 15bps to 0.10% and Deposit Facility Rate to be cut by 10bps to -0.10% to help stimulate more bank lending in the eurozone, particularly given another soft flash CPI print earlier this week. EUR/USD is down some 10pips just below the $1.36 handle ahead of the decision.
***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) China big four banks report May new loans at about CNY270B v CNY267.9B in April; May overall new loans CNY700B v CNY774.4B in April - Chinese press - (CN) Average yield of internet financial products in China drops below 5%; Alibaba's 7-day financial product YuEBao annualized yield at 4.6570%, lowest level in nearly a year - (AU) Australia Newcastle weekly coal exports for week ended June 2nd +4% w/w - (JP) BoJ's Sato: Japan economy likely to resume moderate recovery trend from summer onward
***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - JGB: (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥647B in 1.7% (1.7% prior) 30-yr notes; Avg yield: 1.714% v 1.708% prior; Bid to cover: 3.00x v 4.62x prior - (CN) PBoC to drain CNY40B in 28-day repos (31st consecutive drain); Injects net CNY73B this week v injected CNY20B prior (4th consecutive week of net injection) - (JP) Japan investors sold net ¥721.3B (1st net sold in 5 weeks, largest net bond sale since Mar 28th) in foreign bonds last week vs bought net ¥89.8B prior week; Foreign Investors bought net ¥81.7B in Japan stocks last week vs bought net ¥33.7B in prior week - (AU) Moody's: Australian prime residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) arrears remain stable in Q1 2014, and improve y/y
***Equities*** US markets: - HALO: To Resume PEGPH20 Clinical Program In Pancreatic Cancer; +13.6% afterhours - VRNT: Reports Q1 $0.72 v $0.56e, R$269.3M v $256Me; +7.2% afterhours - FIVE: Reports Q1 $0.07 v $0.06e, R$126M v $122Me; +3.1% afterhours - TMUS: Sprint offering half-cash half-stock to T-Mobile; Would acquire T-Mobile at approx $40/shr - financial press; +1.4% afterhours - AMZN: Sets date for new device announcement at June 18 - press; +0.4% afterhours - PVH: Reports Q1 $1.47 v $1.51e, R$1.96B v $1.99Be; -6.1% afterhours
Notable movers by sector: - Consumer Discretionary: Beijing Gehua CATV Network 600037.CN +7.6% (announces cooperation with China Mobile) - Financials: Evergrande Real Estate Group 3333.HK +3.9% (Alibaba to acquire stake in Evergrande's soccer team) - Materials: Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare Earth 600111.CN +2.9%, China Minmetals Rare Earth 000831.CN +2.4% (speculation on China preparing to cancel rare earth quotas) - Energy: Oil Search Ltd OSH.AU +1.8% (raises FY14 production guidance) - Industrials: China Railway Group 390.HK +2.2% (awarded contract); Amada 6113.JP +1.4% (considers M&A) - Technology: Samsung SDI 006400.KR +4.8% (to develop batteries with Ford) - Healthcare: Lijun International Pharmaceutical Holding 2005.HK -2.3% (shareholder sells stake)