Asian Update: RBNZ retains tightening bias; Australia unemployment hits 12-year highs; BOK on hold for 2nd month
***Economic Data***
- (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +42.7K (9-month high) V +15KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 6.3% (12-year high) V 6.3%E; PARTICIPATION RATE 64.7% (4-month high) V 64.6%E
- (AU) AUSTRALIA DEC CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATION: 3.4% V 4.1% PRIOR; matches 4-month low
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND CENTRAL BANK (RBNZ) LEAVES OFFICIAL CASH RATE UNCHANGED AT 3.50%, AS EXPECTED
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND NOV FOOD PRICES M/M: -0.5% V 0.0% PRIOR
- (CN) China Ministry of Finance (MoF): China Nov Fiscal Rev CNY995B, +9.7% y/y, Fiscal Spending CNY1.28T, +0.8% y/y
- (JP) JAPAN OCT TERTIARY INDUSTRY INDEX M/M: -0.2% V -0.2%E
- (JP) JAPAN OCT MACHINE ORDERS M/M: -6.4% (first decline in 5 months) V -1.7%E; Y/Y: -4.9% (largest decline in 5 months) V -0.3%E
- (KR) BANK OF KOREA (BOK) LEAVES 7-DAY REPO RATE AT 2.00% (AS EXPECTED)
- (UK) UK NOV RICS HOUSE PRICE BALANCE: 13% V 15%E
***Index Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 -1.1%, S&P/ASX -0.5%, Kospi -0.8%, Shanghai Composite -0.6%, Hang Seng -1.2%, Dec S&P500 +0.2% at 2,029
***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Feb gold +0.1% at $1,230, Jan crude oil +1.0% at $61.52/brl, Mar copper -0.5% at $2.91/lb
- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings rise 3.0 tonnes to 724.8 tonnes; Highest level since Nov 10th
- SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings fall to 10,646 tonnes from 10,737 tonnes prior (lowest since Sept 22nd)
- (US) Yield on the US 10-yr note falls to 2.17% at the close, Lowest close since Oct 16th; Yield on the 30-year at 2.84%; Lowest close since May 2013
- (CN) PBoC won't conduct open market operations (OMO) in today's session (5th consecutive halt); Injects net CNY5B this week v injected CNY30B prior (4th consecutive injection, smallest injection in 4 weeks)
- USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point 6.1153 v 6.1195 prior setting (strongest Yuan setting since Feb 20th)
- (JP) Japan investors sold net ¥852.2B in foreign bonds v bought ¥3.4B in prior week; Foreign investors bought net ¥481.9B in Japan stocks v sold ¥53.0B in prior week
***Market Focal Points/Key Themes/FX***
- Asian indices echoed another pummeling in the US markets where year-end profit taking has taken stocks down for the 3rd straight day. Safe-haven US bonds are firmly bid amid political uncertainty in Greece, slowdown in China, and looming FOMC meeting next week, with the yield on the US 10-yr at 2-month lows and 30-yr at 20-month lows. Tracking lower US yields, USD/JPY fell below 117.50 - a 2-week low.
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand was on hold at 3.50% as expected, also lowering its 90-day bill rate from prior forecasts by 10bps at 2014-end, 30bps at 2015-end, and 40bps at 2016-end. RBNZ reiterated the high exchange rate still restrains growth in the traded sectors and yet to adjust materially to the lower commodity prices, but also added that "some further policy tightening will be necessary to keep future average inflation near the 2% target mid-point and ensure that the economic expansion can be sustained." NZD/USD spiked up about 150pips on that statement component, as investors anticipated a decidedly neutral bias from the RBNZ due to recent pressure in dairy prices and lower inflation expectations. Speaking after the policy announcement, Gov Wheeler clarified the RBNZ would be on hold for a long time, expressing surprise the markets interpreted the statement as a tightening signal.
- AUD/USD traded up over 30pips as high as $0.8370 after Australia employment change came in at nearly triple the estimates. Those gains were quickly reversed however, with most of the job creation registered in the part-time space. Moreover, unemployment rate hit a 12-year high of 6.3%, even though participation rate rose to a 4-month high.
- Hong Kong authorities moved to clear out the Occupy Central sites after giving protesters ample warning to vacate the areas. Some 7K police officers were deployed, and initial reports indicate the clearing has far been peaceful. On the mainland, China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) said it plans to inspect margin trading leverage issues for brokers next week due to outsized volatility in the A-shares over the past week. Separately, a press report indicated PBoC has been easing lending conditions, targeting 2014 Yuan loans to hit CNY10T v CNY8.9T reached in 2013.
- KRW hit a 3-week high against USD at KRW1,095 before paring its advance after a dovish Bank of Korea policy statement. BOK kept rates on hold at 2.00% in a unanimous decision as widely expected, but also added inflation would stay low for considerable period, 2015 GDP would struggle meeting a 3.9% target, and recovery of consumption has been inadequate.
***Equities***
US markets:
- HBOS: Announces definitive merger agreement with Renasant Corp, values company at approx $27.00/shr; +7.4% afterhours
- RH: Reports Q3 $0.49 v $0.47e, R$485M v $482Me; +6.7% afterhours
- CNX: Intends to Pursue the Initial Public Offerings of a Thermal Coal MLP and Metallurgical Coal Subsidiary; approves $250M buyback program (3% of market cap); +3.0% afterhours
- CASY: Reports Q2 $1.28 v $1.09e, R$2.15B v $2.20Be; +1.9% afterhours
- EBAY: Said to be considering cuts of as many as 3K jobs in 2015 (about 10% of total workforce), mainly in the Marketplace division - financial press; +0.2% afterhours
- MW: Reports Q3 $0.83 v $0.87e, R$890.6M v $909Me; -0.2% afterhours
- LAKE: Reports Q3 -$0.42 v -$0.31 y/y, R$25M v $22.8M y/y; -8.6% afterhours
- LC: Prices IPO at $15/shr vs. $12-14 expected range; to trade on NYSE
- RDN: Said to be close to selling its financial guaranty business to Assured Guaranty Ltd for about $800M - financial press
- SPLS: Starboard Value said to take approx 6% stake valued around $550M - financial press
Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer Discretionary: Belle International Holdings 1880.HK -1.1% (Q3 sales result)
- Financials: Poly Property Group 119.HK -2.3% (Nov sales result); China Merchants Bank 600036.CN +1.1% (Anbang Insurance raises stake)
- Energy: Origin Energy ORG.AU -1.9%, Santos STO.AU -5.6%, Sundance Energy SEA.AU -7.2% (WTI crude lower); Caltex Australia CTX.AU +3.1% (FY14 guidance); China Oilfield Services 2883.HK -5.7% (FY15 guidance)
- Industrials: China State Construction 3311.HK +1.6% (Nov new contracts result)
- Utilities: CGN Power 1816.HK +7.3% (momentum on IPO debut)