Asian Market Update: China PMIs at multi-month lows; Japan CapEx data bode well for upward GDP revision
***Economic Data***
- (CN) CHINA NOV FINAL HSBC MANUFACTURING PMI: 50.0 V 50.0E (6-month low)
- (CN) CHINA OFFICIAL NOV MANUFACTURING PMI: 50.3 V 50.5E (8-month low)
- (AU) AUSTRALIA Q3 COMPANY OPERATING PROFIT Q/Q: +0.5% V -1.3%E; INVENTORIES Q/Q: 0.7% V 0.2%E
- (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV TD SECURITIES INFLATION M/M: 0.1% V 0.2% PRIOR; Y/Y: 2.2% V 2.3% PRIOR
- (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV CORELOGIC HOUSE PRICES M/M: -0.3% V +1.0% PRIOR; first decline in 6 months
- (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV AIG PERFORMANCE OF MANUFACTURING INDEX: 50.1 V 49.4 PRIOR (1st expansion in 4 months)
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q3 TERMS OF TRADE INDEX Q/Q: -4.4% V -4.5%E
- (JP) JAPAN Q3 CAPITAL SPENDING Y/Y: 5.5% (fifth quarter of expansion) V 2.0%E; CAPITAL SPENDING EX-SOFTWARE Y/Y: 5.6% V 1.5%E
- (JP) JAPAN NOV FINAL MARKIT/JMMA MANUFACTURING PMI: 52.0 V 52.1 PRELIM
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA NOV HSBC MANUFACTURING PMI: 49.0 V 48.7 PRIOR (3rd consecutive contraction)
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA NOV TRADE BALANCE: $5.6B V $6.2BE
***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +0.8%, S&P/ASX -1.6%, Kospi -0.8%, Shanghai Composite +0.7%, Hang Seng -1.9%, Dec S&P500 -0.4% at 2,057
***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Feb gold -2.1% at $1,151, Jan crude oil -2.2% at $64.70/brl, Mar copper -1.6% at $2.80/lb
- (CH) Switzerland votes "No" on gold referendum that would have required SNB to hold 1/5 of reserves in Gold; Vote was 78% in opposition to proposal
- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 1.2 tonnes to 717.6 tonnes; Lowest level since Sept 2008
- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥110B in JGB with maturity less than 1-yr, ¥450B in 1-3yr JGB, ¥450B in 3-5yr JGB
- (KR) South Korea MoF sells 3-yr govt bonds at average yield of 2.06%
***Market Focal Points/Key Themes/FX***
- Jan crude oil extended its decline to as low as $64.10 - a 4 1/2 year low - as traders in Asia responded to a post OPEC-production hold with a follow-through selloff. Gold was also a big mover in commodities space, falling over $20/oz as Swiss "NO" vote on gold-reserve minimum referendum was defeated by a sound margin. Silver tracked gold losses with its own outsized decline.
- China twin PMIs for November saw an 8-month low for the Official and a 6-month low for HSBC Final prints respectively. AUD/USD hits its lows of the day after the official PMI release below $0.8420, down over 80pips from Friday close. Employment component deteriorated another 0.2pts to 48.2, while Export orders fell 1.5pts to 48.4. The final HSBC PMI remained on the cusp of falling into contraction, even though HSBC chief China economist forecasted stabilisation in property and manufacturing sectors in the coming months thanks to the latest PBoC rate cuts. Separately in China, the Cabinet unveiled the details on proposed bank deposit insurance, covering 100% of deposit amount up to CNY500K. In Hong Kong, tensions resurfaced after police authorities were forced to use batons and pepper spray against protesters attempting to surround the office of Chief Executive Leung.
- Japan Q3 CAPEX figures were much better than expected, prompting analysts to offer rosier projections for Q3 GDP than initially reported. Recall the preliminary GDP figures plunged Japan into a technical recession and sealed the delay in 2nd round sales tax hike. Japan final manufacturing PMI saw a downtick to 52.0, even though new orders and employment components rose. PM Abe said he would undertake more steps to boost consumption, declaring "Abenomics is still only halfway" to achieving its goals.
- Australia PM Abbott's ruling coalition was undermined after losing control of the state of Victoria - Australia's 2nd most populous state - to opposition Labor. Press reports attribute the loss to Abbott having broken a number of election promises "including a pledge not to raise taxes." Australia Q3 corporate profits recovered, with the focus now turning to the RBA cash rate decision tomorrow and the quarterly GDP figures on Wednesday.
- US Black Friday report card is mixed - online sales as measured by ChannelAdvisor exceeded estimates with a 22% y/y increase while National Retail Federation said 2014 Thanksgiving spending was down 11% y/y as a result of heavy discounting that started early. Traffic fell 5.2% y/y, and Online sales were about 43% of total, little changed from 2013.
- Ahead of this week's ECB decision, Bundesbank's Lautenschlaeger hardened the German opposition to expanding QE, noting a "broad purchase program of government bonds does not give a positive outcome" in consideration of costs and benefits. She added that long-term interest rates in Spain and Italy are already lower than in US and UK, urging for unanimous monetary policy to maintain price stability.
***Equities***
US shares/ADRs:
- GSK: Said to cut hundreds of jobs in the US as part of a 3-year $1.6B cost initiative - financial press
- PT: Altice SA said to have reached a deal to acquire company for €7.4B; Deal may be announced on Monday - financial press
- PG: Said to have hired an advisor to sell its hair care unit valued at $7B - financial press
Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer Discretionary: Pola Orbis Holdings 4927.JP +5.6% (raises FY14/15 guidance)
- Financials: Ping An Insurance 601318.CN +3.7% (to issue H-shares)
- Materials: Metcash MTS.AU -14.2% (H1 results)
- Energy: Sundance Energy Australia SEA.AU -10.4%, Santos STO.AU -6.8%, Drillsearch Energy DLS.AU -9.3% (WTI Crude below $65/barrel)
- Industrials: UGL Ltd UGL.AU -1.5% (Chairman comments on possible write-downs)