Asian Market Update: AUD sinks to multi-year lows on sharp decline in Australia employment; China FDI returns to growth in 2013
***Economic Data*** - (BR) BRAZIL CENTRAL BANK (BCB) RAISES SELIC TARGET RATE BY 50BPS TO 10.50%, MORE THAN 25BPS EXPECTED - (AU) AUSTRALIA DEC EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: -22.6K V +10.0KE (largest decline in 9 months); UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 5.8% V 5.8%E - (AU) AUSTRALIA DEC RBA FX TRANSACTIONS (A$): 884M V 444M PRIOR - (CN) CHINA DEC ACTUAL FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI) Y/Y: 3.3% V 2.4% PRIOR; 2013 Y/Y: +5.3% V -3.7% Y/Y - (JP) JAPAN NOV TERTIARY INDUSTRY INDEX M/M: 0.6% V 0.7%E (highest level in 3 months) - (JP) JAPAN DEC DOMESTIC CGPI M/M: 0.3% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 2.5% V 2.6%E (9th consecutive rise) - (JP) JAPAN NOV MACHINE ORDERS M/M: 9.3% (6-month high) V 1.1%E ; Y/Y: 16.6% V 11.7%E - (IN) India Dec Conference Board Leading Economic Index m/m: +0.1% v -1.1% prior - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND ANZ TRUCKOMETER HEAVY M/M: 1.4% V -2.0% PRIOR - (UK) UK DEC RICS HOUSE PRICE BALANCE: 56% V 60%E (3-month low)
***Observations/Insights*** - Australia employment fell by the biggest amount in 9-months. Unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.8% but only because of declining participation rate, which fell 2bps to 64.6% - a 7-year low. Decline in employment effectively brings back the possibility of further RBA easing, particularly as some of the more recent housing data show signs of deceleration. - China released its foreign direct investment (FDI) figures showing a rebound in 2013 at 5.3% after a 2012 contraction. Dec pace of growth also accelerated from prior month. Separately, China MOFCOM warned 2014 may bring "severe challenges" in the trade sector, since global recovery has not stabilized. Higher costs, liquidity shortages, base effects and competition were specifically attributed to expectations of a choppy trade activity in Q1. - BOJ Kuroda said the central bank will continue easing until 2% inflation is stable. Separately, Japanese press speculated the cabinet office will raise its economic assessment for the first time in 4 months.
***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - (CN) PBoC won't conduct open market operations (OMO) in today's session (7th consecutive session of halted operations); Zero net position this week v zero in prior week - (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥250B in 1-3yr JGB, ¥250B in 3-5yr JGB, ¥200B in JGB with maturity over 10-yr, and ¥100B in corporate bonds
- AUD was in the spotlight following the release of much worse than expected employment data out of Australia. AUD/USD fell just over 100pips below the $0.88 handle - its lowest level since Jul 2010 - while AUD/NZD hit fresh 8-year lows below NZ$1.06. NZD/USD was also initially lower after Aussie jobs, falling some 30pips below $0.8310. EUR/USD reversed its initial decline below $1.3590 to test above $1.3620, and USD/JPY backed away from the ¥105 handle in the afternoon session to fall below ¥104.70.
***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM) Sheng: Expects severe challenges for trade in 2014 - financial press - (CN) China to begin birth policy reform plans as soon as March - Chinese press - (CN) Shanghai may order vehicles off road under "severe" air pollution conditions as part of the new monitoring system - financial press - (CN) Bernstein: PBoC to maintain tighter monetary policy in H1 to curb shadow banking - financial press - (JP) BOJ Gov Kuroda: Domestic economy has been recovering moderately; expects recovery even with sales tax increase - (JP) Japan cabinet office to raise economic assessment in Jan (1st time in 4 months) - Nikkei News - (AU) Westpac senior FX strategist Callow: Still expects RBA to keep policy rates on hold next month despite weak employment data; Likely to retain a mild easing bias - SMH
- (US) Fed's Lockhart (moderate, FOMC alternate): Sees US inflation to rise toward 2% goal - (US) House of Representatives passes $1.1T omnibus spending bill to keep govt funded through Sept 30th, as expected
***Equities*** Market Snapshot (as of 04:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 +0.1%, S&P/ASX +1.0%, Kospi +0.3%, Shanghai Composite flat, Hang Seng +0.3%, Mar S&P500 +0.1% at 1,843, Feb gold +0.2% at $1,241, Feb crude oil -0.2% at $94.17/brl
US markets: - ZOOM: Discloses entry into LOI with Tinho Union Holding Group to acquire all the issued and outstanding shares of Tinho - filing; +45.6% afterhours - SRPT: Eteplirsen Demonstrates Continued Stability on Walking Test through 120 Weeks in Phase IIb Study in Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy; +17.4% afterhours - RIO: Reports Q4 Iron ore output 70.4M tons (record), +3% q/q, +6% y/y - FUL: Reports Q4 $0.68 adj v $0.76e, R$533.5M v $526Me; -0.1% afterhours - YHOO: COO Henrique de Castro to leave the company on Jan 16th - filing; -0.2% afterhours - AMZN: Workers at fulfillment center in Delaware vote against unionization - JCP: Announces strategic initiative to advance turnaround; will close 33 underperforming stores, cutting 2K positions (1.7% of workforce); -0.3% afterhours - CEC: Said to be acquired by Apollo Global for around $1B - FT - TWC: Charter said to have approached Comcast regarding possible cooperation on Time Warner bid - financial press; -0.6% afterhours - CSX: Reports Q4 $0.42 v $0.43e, R$3.03B v $3.01Be; -3.2% afterhours - AMRN: Announces FDA Review Division Response on ANCHOR SPA Agreement Reinstatement Request Will Be Delayed (delayed a 2nd time); -7.5% afterhours
Notable movers by sector: - Consumer Discretionary: Lanzhou Minbai Shareholding Group 600738.CN +3.6% (FY13 guidance); Playmates Toys 869.HK -10.9% (FY13 guidance); Tsui Wah Holdings 1314.HK -4.6% (shareholders cut stake) - Financials: Wedge Industrial 000534.CN +3.2% (FY13 guidance) - Materials: Yueyang Forest & Paper 600963.CN +2.6% (FY13 guidance); Jiaozuo Wanfang Aluminum Manufacturing 000612.CN +1.6% (FY13 guidance); Rio Tinto RIO.AU +2.1%, BHP Billiton BHP.AU +2.3%, Fortescue Metals Group FMG.AU +3.4% (Rio Tinto Q4 production results) - Technology: Unilumin Group 300232.CN +10.0% (FY13 guidance); Guangzhou Hongli Opto-Electronic 300219.CN +5.9% (FY13 guidance); Tencent Holdings 700.HK +2.9%, South China City Holdings +54.8% (Tencent and South China City enters into investment agreement) - Energy: Woodside Petroleum WPL.AU +2.5% (Q4 results) - Industrials: XJ Electric 000400.CN +2.1% (FY13 guidance); Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems 600481.CN +3.9% (FY13 guidance); Shanghai Hanbell Precise Machinery 002158.CN +5.1% (FY13 guidance); - Healthcare: Guangdong Jiaying Pharmaceutical 002198.CN +2.2% (proposes special dividend) - Utility: TEPCO 9501.JP +0.6% (announces 10-yr turnaround business plan)