Asian Market Update: China PMIs remain mixed; Australia retail sales miss estimates as traders await RBA decision
***Economic Data*** - (CN) CHINA MAY FINAL HSBC MANUFACTURING PMI: 49.4 V 49.7E (5th month of contraction) - (CN) CHINA MAY NON-MANUFACTURING PMI: 55.5 V 54.8 PRIOR (6-month high) - (AU) AUSTRALIA APR RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.2% V 0.3%E - (AU) AUSTRALIA Q1 CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE (A$): -5.7B (smallest deficit in 10 quarters) V -7.0BE; NET EXPORTS OF GDP: 1.4% V 0.8%E - (AU) Australia ANZ-Roy Morgan weekly consumer confidence: +2.9%, first rise in 6 weeks - (JP) JAPAN APR LABOR CASH EARNINGS Y/Y: 0.9% (2-year high) V 0.4%E - (JP) JAPAN MAY MONETARY BASE Y/Y: 45.6% V 48.5% PRIOR; MONETARY BASE END OF PERIOD: ¥226.6T V ¥225.5T PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q1 TERMS OF TRADE INDEX Q/Q: 1.8% (5-quarter low) V 2.0%E - (KR) SOUTH KOREA MAY CPI M/M: 0.2% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 1.7% (highest since Oct 2012) V 1.6%E; CORE CPI Y/Y: 2.2% V 2.3% PRIOR - (TW) TAIWAN MAY HSBC MANUFACTURING PMI: 52.4 (9th straight month of expansion) V 52.3 PRIOR
Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 +0.8%, S&P/ASX -0.3%, Kospi -0.1%, Shanghai Composite +0.2%, Hang Seng +0.7%, Jun S&P500 flat at 1,920, Aug gold flat at $1,244, Jul crude oil flat at $102.49/brl
***Highlights/Observations/Insights*** - China PMIs were mixed and hardly swayed sentiment in either direction. The official non-manufacturing PMI improved to a 6-month high, while the HSBC final manufacturing slowed from the stronger Flash figure and remains in contraction. HSBC chief economist noted that "the final PMI reading for May confirmed that the economy is stabilizing, but it is too early to say that it has bottomed out, particularly in light of a weaker property sector." The silver lining here is that the "rate of contraction was only fractional" and new export orders (external demand) actually rose at the fastest rate since April 2010. Still, HSBC expects both monetary and fiscal policy to be loosened gradually over the coming months.
- Japan continues to make steady progress in achievement of policymakers' objectives as latest wage inflation data hit a 2-year high, suggesting that higher prices are translating into rising wages. BOJ Gov Kuroda reiterated he expects Japan inflation to reach 2% around FY15, while Fin Min Aso remains flexible on the possibility of lower corporate tax rates.
- Economic data from Australia was also mixed as traders prepared for what is widely expected to be another neutral RBA policy statement. Retail sales missed estimates but rebounded slightly from prior month's 8-month low. Ahead of tomorrow's release of Q1 GDP, Australia's Q1 current account saw its smallest deficit in 2 1/2 years. AUD/USD was volatile but still within a 30pip range just above $0.9230, falling after retail sales, regaining lost ground, and then falling to session lows after the soft HSBC manufacturing PMI from China.
***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (JP) 51% majority of Japan's bond market observers expect low US treasury rates to be temporary - Nikkei citing survey by QUICK Corp - (JP) Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER): Japan's Real APR GDP estimated at -3.7% m/m; First decline in 7 months and biggest contraction since Mar 2011 (month of great earthquake) - Nikkei - (JP) Follow up: Japan GPIF Committee head: Raising Japan stock weighting to 20% would not be too high - Japanese press - (JP) Japan Fin Min Aso: Corp tax possible if permanent replacement revenue found - (JP) Japan BOJ Gov Kuroda: Expects Japan inflation to reach 2% around FY15; Too early to talk about QQE exit plan - addressing parliament - (CN) Beijing May second hand house transactions 6.9K units, -10% y/y, average price -4.8% y/y (fastest decline since Feb 2012) - Chinese press - (CN) China National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC): China Jan-Apr crude steel production 271.9Mt, +2.7% y/y, iron ore production 427.8Mt, +8.7% y/y - (CN) Bank of China research Zong Liang: China selective RRR cut may release CNY300B; RRR cut across the board is unlikely - financial press - (NZ) New Zealand Treasury releases Monthly Economic Indicators: Sees domestic demand strengthening further
***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - JGB: (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥2.19T in 0.6% (0.6% prior) 10-yr notes; Avg yield: 0.608% v 0.602% prior; Bid to cover: 3.74x v 3.54x prior - USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1710 v 6.1695 prior setting (weakest setting since Sept 6th) - (CN) PBoC to drain CNY30B in 28-day repos (30th consecutive drain) - (KR) South Korea to sell 10-yr EUR denominated notes and 30-yr USD bonds - SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings rise to 10,359 tonnes from 10,284 tonnes prior (highest level since May 5th)
***Equities*** US markets: - HSH: Pilgrim's Pride said to have boost offer to $55/shr - financial press; +2.7% afterhours - KKD: Reports Q1 $0.23 v $0.23e, R$121.6M v $127Me; -10.5% afterhours - ZQK: Reports Q2 cont ops -$0.27 v -$0.20 y/y, R$408M v $451Me; -29.7% afterhours
Notable movers by sector: - Financials: ICBC 1398.HK +1.6%, China Construction Bank 939.HK +1.4%, Bank of China 3988.HK +0.5%, AgBank of China 1288.HK +3.2% (China announces additional targeted RRR cut) - Energy: Hengyi Petrochemical 000703.CN +10.1%, Sinopec Shandong Taishan Petroleum 000554.CN +8.7%, Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical 600688.CN +4.4% (China supports oil and gas in Xinjiang) - Industrials: Decmil Group DCG.AU +4.3% (awarded order); United Group UGL.AU +2.3% (confirms receive of proposals) - Technology: Qingdao Haier 600690.CN +1.0%, Haier Electronics 1169.HK +4.4% (Apple mentioned Haier as partner in HomeKit); Nintendo 7974.JP +0.9% (Mario Kart 8 game sales)