Asian Market Update: China CPI falls to 5-year lows amid energy price slump
***Economic Data***
- (CN) CHINA NOV CPI Y/Y: 1.4% V 1.6%E (5-year low)
- (CN) CHINA NOV PPI Y/Y: -2.7% V -2.4%E (33RD STRAIGHT MONTH OF DECLINE; Steepest fall in 18 months)
- (JP) JAPAN Q4 BUSINESS SURVEY INDEX (BSI) LARGE ALL INDUSTRY Q/Q: 5.0 V 10.0E; BSI LARGE MANUFACTURING Q/Q: 8.1 V 12.7 PRIOR
- (JP) JAPAN NOV CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 37.7 V 39.5E (4th straight monthly decline and lowest since April)
- (JP) Japan Oct Conference Board Leading Economic Index m/m: 0.4% v 0.3% prior
- (JP) JAPAN NOV CGPI (PPI) M/M: -0.2% V -0.3%E (4th consecutive decline); Y/Y: 2.7% V 2.6%E (8-month low)
- (AU) AUSTRALIA DEC WESTPAC CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX: 91.1 (lowest since Aug 2011) V 96.6 PRIOR; M/M: -5.7% V +1.9% PRIOR
- (AU) AUSTRALIA OCT HOME LOANS M/M: 0.3% V 0.1%E (1st rise in 3 months)
- (NZ) New Zealand REINZ Nov House Price Index: 4,118.7 v 3,989 prior; House Sales Y/Y: +6.5% v -2.4% prior
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA NOV UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 3.4% V 3.5%E (4-month low)
- (KR) South Korea Nov Bank Lending to Households (KRW): 513.7T v 507.7T prior
- (KR) South Korea Nov Import Price Index M/M: -0.8% v -1.1% prior; Y/Y: -7.9% (27th consecutive decline) v -7.6% prior
- (PH) PHILIPPINES OCT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 6.0% v 6.7% PRIOR
***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 -1.8%, S&P/ASX flat, Kospi -1.3%, Shanghai Composite +0.4%, Hang Seng -0.2%, Dec S&P500 -0.1% at 2,057
***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Feb gold flat at $1,230, Jan crude oil -0.9% at $62.94/brl, Mar copper -0.5% at $2.91/lb
- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings rise 3.7 tonnes to 721.8 tonnes; Highest level since Nov 17th, biggest increase since Sept 10th
- (US) API PETROLEUM INVENTORIES: CRUDE: +4.4M (largest build since Oct 15th) v -2.5Me, GASOLINE: +6.7M v +2Me, DISTILLATE: +4.3M v +0.5Me
- (US) PIMCO: Raises Total Return Fund's holding of US Treasuries to 37% in Nov from 35% in Oct
- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥450B in 1-3yr JGB, ¥450B in 3-5yr JGB, ¥240B in 10-25 yr JGB and ¥160B in JGB with maturity over 25-yr
- JGB: (JP) Yield on Japan's 10-yr JGB falls to 20-month low of 0.4%
- (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$600M in 4.5% bonds due 2033; Average yield: 3.4022%; Bid-to-cover: 1.85x
- USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point 6.1195 v 6.1231 prior setting (strongest Yuan setting since Mar 3rd)
***Market Focal Points/Key Themes/FX***
- After the biggest decline in Shanghai A-shares in 6 years on Tuesday, today's session is notably more benign. China CPI slowed to a 5-year low of 1.4% and PPI fell by the biggest y/y rate in 18 months. Slowing consumer inflation was attributed in part to continued fall in oil prices, as non-food component slowed to 1.0% from 1.2%. Disappointing CPI/PPI numbers prompted a fresh round of analyst calls for more PBoC easing to take place as soon as this month. ANZ note forecasted a RRR cut, and JPMorgan issued 2015 easing projections containing one more PBOC interest rate cut, 2-3 RRR cuts, and other targeted measures. Regulators also scrambled to address the spike in market volatility, issuing a warning to retail investors about the risks in equity trading while also calling brokerages to determine the impact of yesterday's market drop. Separately, China Securities Depository and Clearing (CSDC) announced that new stock accounts in the week of Dec 5th rose over 60% to 598K - the highest total since 2009.
- USD/JPY pair remains under pressure just below ¥119, consolidating the sharp US-morning dive to the ¥118 handle. Japan cabinet official Seko said the govt should include measures dealing with the adverse effects of weak yen in the economic stimulus, as voter surveys showed concerns over the excessive decline in exchange rate. An Asahi report did note that the ruling LDP/Komeito coalition could actually come away with a super-majority on election-day Sunday with more than 2/3 of seats in lower house of Parliament. Japan economic data saw Manufacturing BSI survey for Q4 miss estimates, as corporates also lowered projections for FY14/15 capital spending to +4.9% y/y from +5.7% prior forecast.
- Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence slumped to its lowest level in over 3 years. Chief economist remarked that while concerns over job security may be an overreaction, they do pose "significant risks to spending, particularly over the course of the next few months." AUD/USD fell to session lows below $0.8270 after the China CPI data but has since recovered above $0.8320 going into Australia close.
- Ahead of tomorrow's RBNZ rate decision, the NZIER Shadow Board forecasted a 67% chance of a hold, up from 62% before the last decision. A more neutral RBNZ statement would likely put further pressure on the kiwi, with market expectations previously anticipating renewed tightening in the first half of 2015. Earlier today, NZD/USD fell to $0.7660 after Fonterra cut its FY14/15 payout forecast for farmgate milk price to NZ$4.70/kg from NZ$5.30/kg, citing geopolitical uncertainty and subdued demand from China amid elevated inventory levels.
***Equities***
US markets:
- VG: Announces Strategic Initiatives; To exit Brazil consumer operations; Board approves $100M share buyback program (about 15% of market cap); +2.4% afterhours
- BRCM: Guides Q4 higher to R$2.075-2.15B v $2.09Be ($2-2.15B prior); increases dividend, approves $1B buyback program (4.3% of market cap); -0.6% afterhours
- CMTL: Completes Review of Strategic Alternatives; will remain independent; -3.9% afterhours
- YUM: Guides initial FY15 EPS growth of at least 10%; -4.4% afterhours
- KKD: Reports Q3 $0.18 v $0.20e, R$122.9M v $124Me; -5.1% afterhours
Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer Discretionary: Skymark Airlines 9204.JP +8.7% (ANA considers alliance)
- Energy: Senex Energy SXY.AU +6.3% (capex plan for rest of FY15); Beach Energy BPT.AU +1.1% (new agreement with Origin Energy)
- Industrials: Geely Automobile 175.HK -0.3% (Nov result)
- Technology: Tencent 700.HK -1.6% (Chairman cut stake)
- Utilities: GCN Power 1816.HK +20.1% (IPO debut)
- Telecom: PCCW 8.HK +1.4% (approval to extend TV license)