Asian Market Update: Volatile Australia Jobs show biggest monthly drop since 2011; PBoC steps up liquidity injection
***Economic Data*** - (AU) AUSTRALIA SEPT EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: -29.7K (largest decline since Apr 2011) V -30.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 6.1% (highest since July 2003) V 6.2%E; PARTICIPATION RATE 64.5% (lowest since Mar 2006) V 65.0%E - (JP) JAPAN AUG MACHINE ORDERS M/M: 4.7% (3rd month of increase) V 0.5%E; Y/Y: -3.3% V -4.9%E; Govt raises machine orders assessment - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND SEPT RETAIL CARD SPENDING M/M: -0.1% (2nd decline in 3 months) V +0.4%E; TOTAL CARD SPENDING M/M: -0.2% V +0.3% PRIOR - (UK) UK SEPT RICS HOUSE PRICE BALANCE: 30% (15-month low) V 36%E
***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)*** - Nikkei225 +0.4%, S&P/ASX +1.4%, Kospi closed, Shanghai Composite +0.3%, Hang Seng +1.2%, Dec S&P500 +0.1% at 1,963
***Commodities/Fixed Income*** - Dec gold +1.5% at $1,224/oz, Nov crude oil +0.5% at $87.72/brl, Dec copper flat at $3.02/lb - GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 4.6 tonnes to 762.9 tonnes; Lowest level since Dec 2008 - (CN) PBoC to drain CNY20B in 14-day repos (20th consecutive drain); Injects net CNY26B (largest injection in 6 weeks) this week v drained CNY5B in prior week; Offer yield at 3.50%, unchanged from prior. - (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥400B in 5-10yr JGB, ¥100B in 10-25yr JGB and ¥30B in JGB with maturity over 25-yr as well as ¥400B in CP - (JP) Japan investors sold net ¥179.0B in foreign bonds v bought ¥186.9B in prior week; Foreign investors bought net ¥186.5B in Japan stocks v sold ¥41.9B in prior week - USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1461 v 6.1493 prior setting (strongest Yuan setting since Sep 18th)
***Market Focal Points/Key Themes/FX*** - US indices staged their biggest single-day rally of the year after Fed Policy Meeting minutes that were far less hawkish than anticipated. Specifically, the Fed expressed concern over the strength of the US dollar, shortfall in economic growth and eurozone inflation, as well as slowdown in China/Japan and geopolitical risk in Ukraine/Middle East. Investors took that as a sign that policymakers will keep rates on hold far longer in 2015 than anticipated, pushing expectations for the first rate hike deeper into H2 of 2015. Along with the US equity rally, short-end treasury yields fell, USD weakened, and metals spiked.
- Alcoa earnings marked the unofficial start of the Q3 reporting period with a bang. EPS came in at $0.31 v $0.22e on Rev of $6.24B v $5.78Be. Alcoa also affirmed FY14 global aluminum demand growth +7% and increased its 2014 estimate of production growth for the North America commercial transportation market to a range of 16-20% from a previous range of 10-14%. Company also noted an impressive order backlog, particularly in the Aerospace segment.
- Australia Sept employment saw its biggest monthly drop since early 2011, as unemployment rate rose to 11-year high of 6.1% and participation rate fell to an 8-year low. The increasingly volatile data series saw significant revisions of prior months' figures, as Australia Stats remained mum on the changes. Losses in AUD/USD were limited to about 20pips on the release, as the pair fell below $0.88 before rising above $0.8880 as part of a broader USD-weakness trend.
- Also of note in Australia, NAB guided FY14 cash earnings at A$5.1-5.2B v A$5.7Be and announced an A$800M capital raise due to impairment charges in the Wealth and Australian Banking businesses and other smaller assets in the UK and NZ region. Bank of Qnsld reported FY14 net profit up 40% and net interest margins up 13bps, sending BOQ shares up over 3%.
- In China, the PBoC announced a drain of CNY20B in 14-day repos for the day but a net injection of CNY26B for the week - the largest in 6 weeks. Vice Fin Min Zhu expressed concern over the "quality of economic growth", noting it was less important to meet a hard GDP target. A report from China State Council indicated it would regulate local govt more strictly against fiscal risks.
- In Japan, BOJ Gov Kuroda maintained the central bank will do additional monetary easing if economy shows significant signs of deviating from path to 2% inflation. USD/JPY hit session highs on those comments at 108.30 before retreating to 107.90 late in the morning session.
***Equities*** US markets: - AA: Reports Q3 $0.31 v $0.22e, R$6.24B v $5.78Be; +2.4% afterhours - UAL: Reports Sept load factor 82.9% v 82.7% y/y; provides Q3 metrics; +2.0% afterhours - HAL: Awarded mature field contracts from Petroamazonas; Terms not disclosed; -0.1% afterhours - CTRX: To acquire Salveo Specialty Pharmacy for $260M in cash; -0.4% afterhours - GPS: Reports Sept SSS flat v 0.8%e; -8.1% afterhours
Notable movers by sector: - Financials: National Australia Bank NAB.AU +1.7% (FY14 guidance); Bank of Queensland BOQ.AU +3.3% (FY14 result); China Vanke Co 000002.CN +0.7% (Sept result) - Customer discretionary: FamilyMart Co. 8028.JP +0.7% (H1 result); ABC-MART 2670.JP +6.9% (H1 result); Intime Department Store Group 1833.HK +5.5% (9-month SSS); SA SA International 178.HK +1.7% (Golden Week sales); Sands China 1928.HK +1.5% (Golden Week sales) - Industrials: Ningbo Port Co 601018.CN +0.6% (Prelim Sept result); Great Wall Motor 2333.HK +4.1% (Sept results); Jiangling Motors Corp 000550.CN +0.7% (Sept result) - Customer staples: China Huishan Dairy 6863.HK +4.1% (jv with FrieslandCampina) - Energy: China Longyuan Power Group 916.HK +1.1% (Sept result)