Asian Market Update: China CPI slows to near 5-year lows; BOK cuts rates to record low 2%
***Economic Data*** - (CN) CHINA SEPT CPI Y/Y: 1.6% V 1.7%E (lowest level since Jan 2010) - (CN) CHINA SEPT PPI Y/Y: -1.8% V -1.6%E (31st straight month of decline) - (KR) BANK OF KOREA (BOK) CUTS 7-DAY REPO RATE BY 25 BPS TO 2.00% (AS EXPECTED); New record low and 2nd rate cut of 2014 - (KR) SOUTH KOREA SEPT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 3.5% V 3.5%E - (AU) AUSTRALIA OCT WESTPAC CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX INDEX: 94.8 V 94.0 PRIOR; M/M: 0.9% V -4.6% PRIOR - (AU) AUSTRALIA SEPT NEW MOTOR VEHICLE SALES M/M: +2.9% V -1.8% PRIOR; Y/Y: +0.8% V -3.5% PRIOR
***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)*** - Nikkei225 +0.2%, S&P/ASX +0.4%, Kospi flat, Shanghai Composite -0.2%, Hang Seng +0.5%, Dec S&P500 -0.1% at 1,872
***Commodities/Fixed Income*** - Dec gold -0.3% at $1,227/oz, Nov crude oil -0.1% at $82.15/brl, Dec copper flat $3.08/lb - (CN) China Ministry of Finance (MoF) sells 10-yr bonds at 3.78% - JGB: (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥639.7B in 1.7% (1.7% prior) 30-yr notes; Avg yield: 1.633% v 1.679% prior; Bid to cover: 2.59x v 3.57x prior
***Market Focal Points/Key Themes/FX*** - Slowing inflation in China further justifies a 10bp drop in PBoC offered 14-day repo yield overnight, as September CPI came in below consensus at 1.6% - the lowest rate since early 2010. M/M CPI did notch higher to 0.5% from 0.2%, while non-food CPI slowed to 1.3% from 1.5%. Wholesale inflation drop was slightly more than expected and marked the 31st consecutive month of y/y decline. One analyst noted that CPI will start to recover going into year-end given the lower inventory of pork supplies on year-ago basis. Separately in China, NDRC gen sec forecasted 2014 GDP to meet the 7.5% target, with Q3 data on tap for release next week.
- Bank of Korea cut rates for the 2nd time this year with a 25bp move to a record-low of 2.00%. The decision was expected by a narrow majority of analysts leaning in favor of more stimulus, and the decision was not unanimous as one member voted for a hold. BOK also lowered 2014 GDP forecast from 3.8% to 3.5% and 2015 GDP from 4.0% to 3.9%. CPI forecast was also cut from 1.9% to 1.4%, as central bank noted price pressure has been weaker than expected. BOK Gov Lee added deflation is not imminent and core CPI would return to 2%, noting the 2% policy rate is low enough to support economic recovery. Earlier, South Korea unemployment rate came in as expected at 3.5%.
- Australia Oct Westpac consumer confidence index was marginally higher, as bank economist cited improved labor market and few signs of any further deterioration. A report of Fitch warned that a strong rise in home prices and growth in investor and interest-only mortgage loans in 2013 and 2014 have raised the risks in the Australian banking system, but the likelihood of significant losses in the housing books remains low. Rio Tinto shares were up marginally in Sydney after its quarterly production figures, with Q3 output up 5% q/q and 12% y/y. Mining giant also affirmed 2014 iron ore output at 295M tons along with production of aluminium, cut forecast output of coking coal, but raised expected output target for copper.
- Japan Econ Min Amari noted the export boosting impact from weak JPY has been less than expected and that the govt is not pursuing a weak yen policy. BOJ's Amamiya however stated weak JPY has positive impact on exports and is generally positive as long it matches fundamentals. Former BOJ chief economist called on the policy board to drop the 2-yr inflation time frame but keep the 2% target.
- USD was modestly firmer across the majors for the 2nd consecutive day. USD/JPY traded up about 40pips from the lows as high as 107.40, while EUR/USD fell some 30pips toward 1.2620. AUD/USD bounced about 40pips from the lows following China inflation data to a high of 0.8720 on higher likelihood of more stimulative policy from China.
***Equities*** US markets: - ANN: Enters into a non-disclosure agreement with Golden Gate Capital; +8.2% afterhours - INTC: Reports Q3 $0.66 v $0.65e, R$14.6B v $14.4Be; +2.6% afterhours - CSX: Reports Q3 $0.51 v $0.47e, R$3.22B v $3.16Be; +2.4% afterhours - LTC: Reports Q1 $0.53 v $0.54e, R$371M v $372Me; -1.8% afterhours - ABV: AbbVie confirms its intention to reconsider recommendation of $54B deal to purchase Shire (SHP.UK); -2.1% afterhours; ADRs of SHPG -8.0%
Notable movers by sector: - Consumer Discretionary: Air China 601111.CN +9.9%, China Eastern Airlines 600115.CN +9.0%, Japan Airlines 9201.JP +4.4% (crude oil -5% today); Bic Camera 3048.JP +3.6% (FY14 results); Chongqing Changan Automobile 000625.CN +1.6% (9M guidance); Guangdong Yihua Timber Industry 600978.CN +9.9% (to acquire hotel industry supplier); TABCorp TAH.AU +3.7% (Q1 results) - Materials: Rio Tinto RIO.AU +0.5% (Q3 production results); OZ Minerals OZL.AU +3.0% (Q3 production results); Lynas LYC.AU -4.8% (Q1 results); Showa Denko 4004.JP +1.5% (press reports on 9M results) - Industrials: Inner Mongolia Hotision & Monsod Drought Resistance Greening 300355.CN +2.6% (9M guidance)