Asian Market Update: AUD falls to 4-year lows on disappointing Q3 GDP as markets begin to price in more RBA cuts
***Economic Data***
- (AU) AUSTRALIA Q3 GDP Q/Q: 0.3% V 0.7%E (matches lowest rate of growth since Q1 2013); Y/Y: 2.7% V 3.1%E
- (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV AIG PERFORMANCE OF SERVICES INDEX: 43.8 V 43.6 PRIOR (9th consecutive contraction)
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q3 VALUE OF ALL BUILDINGS Q/Q: 1.5% V 2.6%E
- (CN) CHINA NOV NON-MANUFACTURING PMI: 53.9 V 53.8 PRIOR
- (CN) CHINA NOV HSBC SERVICES PMI: 53.0 V 52.9 PRIOR
- (HK) HONG KONG NOV HSBC PMI: 48.8 V 47.7 PRIOR (4th consecutive contraction)
- (JP) JAPAN NOV MARKIT SERVICES PMI: 50.6 V 48.7 PRIOR
- (UK) UK NOV BRC SHOP PRICE INDEX Y/Y: -1.9% V -1.9% PRIOR (19th consecutive decline)
***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +0.9%, S&P/ASX +0.6%, Kospi +0.3%, Shanghai Composite +0.5%, Hang Seng -0.4%, Dec S&P500 flat at 2,066
***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Feb gold flat at $1,199, Jan crude oil 1.2% at $67.69/brl, Mar copper -0.3% at $2.88/lb
- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings rise 2.4 tonnes to 720.0 tonnes; First rise since Nov 17th
- SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings fall to 10,806 tonnes from 10,891 tonnes prior
- (US) API PETROLEUM INVENTORIES: CRUDE: -6.5M (largest draw since Sept 23rd) v +0.5Me, GASOLINE: -0.035M v +1Me, DISTILLATE: +2.5M v -0.5Me
- (US) T. Boone Pickens: OPEC will have to cut output at some point; Saudis can handle $70 oil because they have cash reserves but the rest cannot sustain that price - CNBC
- (CN) According to survey, PBoC may halt open market operations (OMO) until end of 2014 - financial press
- (CN) China MoF sells 7-year bonds at avg yield of 3.6040% v 3.44%e
- USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1376 v 6.1325 prior setting (weakest Yuan setting since Nov 24th)
- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥400B in 5-10yr JGB, ¥240B in 10-25 yr JGB and ¥160B in JGB with maturity over 25-yr
- (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$500M in 3.25% bonds due 2018; Average yield: 2.4910%; Bid-to-cover: 5.92x
***Market Focal Points/Key Themes/FX***
- Nikkei225 is leading regional indices higher, remaining supported by weaker Yen. USD/JPY hit fresh 7-year highs above 119.40 in Asia session, though pared some of those gain in afternoon hours below 119.20. Japan Services PMI turned from contraction into expansion in November, reversing weather-related weakness in October. Markit economists did note that despite the "activity returning to positive growth, business sentiment among Japanese services providers slipped further in November. Some panel members commented on uncertainty around sales taxes when considering the outlook for activity over the coming year."
- Australia Q3 GDP missed consensus by 4 decimal points on both q/q and y/y basis, sending AUD/USD to its lowest level in over 4 years around $0.8390. Income, Trade, and Consumption were little changed from Q2, however Capital Investment was a huge drag on growth, falling 2.7% after a 0.3% rise previously. Construction was also a key detractor to growth, falling 0.2% q/q. Treasurer Hockey said Q3 report demonstrates the economy is in transition, and that growth, while disappointing, is "only marginally lower than what we were expecting." ANZ economist noted that in income terms, GDP actually contracted 0.1%. Commsec economist was more upbeat, noting the slowdown in growth is still in line with RBA expectations and would not provoke another rate cut increasingly anticipated by other analysts.
- China released the official non-manufacturing and HSBC services PMI that both rose a tick from prior month's levels. Official PMI saw construction component rise to 58.9 from 58.5, Employment rose to 49.5 from 48.9 prior, but price index fell to 47.7 from 48.8. HSBC economist said that despite slight improvement in Services PMI, labor market index moderated and price pressures remain subdued, adding "downside pressures on the economy still persist and warrant further monetary and fiscal easing measures." Earlier, economist with Bank of China forecasted 2015 GDP at 7.2% and CPI at 2.4%, down from 7.5% and 3.5% official govt projections in 2014 respectively. Hong Kong PMI also came off its lows to 48.8 from 47.7, remaining in contraction for the 4th straight month.
- New Zealand Global Dairy Trade auction showed another contraction, as winning auction price again hit its lowest level since Aug 2009. New Zealand Fin Min English responded that the economy can withstand falling prices, but that projections for 2016 GDP of 2.75% are likely "optimistic."
***Equities***
US markets:
- MCHP: Raises Q3 $0.60-0.64 v $0.63e, Rev $518.9-535.3M v $539Me (prior $0.59-0.64, Rev $508-535.3M); +1.6% afterhours
- IPGP: THS and IPGP to be added to S&P400 index; THS +1.3%, IPGP +2.9% afterhours
- ASNA: Reports Q1 $0.28 v $0.27e, R$1.19B v $1.20Be; +0.1% afterhours
- BOBE: Reports Q2 $0.36 v $0.34e, R$333.3M v $343Me; -1.5% afterhours
- PBYI: Intends to delay proposed timeline for filing PB272 (neratinib) NDA until Q116 v H115 (prior timeline); -18.4% afterhours
Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer Discretionary: Sands China 1928.HK -4.6%, Wynn Macau 1128.HK -5.7%, Galaxy Entertainment 27.HK -3.8% (continues to slide lower on weak Macau casino Rev); Myer Holdings MYR.AU +2.8% (UBS initiates stake); Qantas Airways QAN.AU +4.9% (UBS initiates stake); Fast Retailing 9983.JP +2.3% (Nov sales result)
- Materials: Fortescue Metals Group FMG.AU +6.4% (cuts executive positions on cost-saving); Whitehaven Coal WHC.AU +1.8% (FY15 production guidance); Nippon Carbon 5302.JP +6.2% (analyst action)
- Industrials: Leighton Holdings LEI.AU +2.1% (awarded contract); Chiyoda Corp 6366.JP +1.6% (awarded contract)
- Healthcare: Ramsay Health Care Limited RHC.AU +2.1% (analyst action)