Asian Mid-session Update: Japan crawls out of technical recession; Greece prepares for tough negotiations
***Economic Data***
- (JP) JAPAN Q4 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 0.6% V 0.9%E; ANNUALIZED GDP: 2.2% V 3.7%E; GDP Deflator: 2.3% v 1.9%e
- (CN) China Jan FDI Y/Y: 29.4% v 10.3% prior
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q4 RETAIL SALES EX-INFLATION Q/Q: 1.7% (matches 2-year high) V 1.3%E; EX-AUTOS: 1.5% V 1.4% PRIOR
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND JAN PERFORMANCE SERVICES INDEX: 57.8 V 56.7 PRIOR; highest level since July 2014
- (AU) AUSTRALIA JAN NEW MOTOR VEHICLE SALES M/M: -1.5% V 2.6% PRIOR; Y/Y: +0.2% V -1.1% PRIOR
- (TH) THAILAND Q4 GDP Q/Q: 1.7% V 2.1%E; Y/Y: 2.3% V 2.0%E
- (KR) South Korea Jan Bank Lending to Households (KRW): 519.5T v 519.1T prior
***Index Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +0.7%, S&P/ASX 0.0%, Kospi +0.1%, Shanghai Composite +0.2%, Hang Seng +0.2%, Mar S&P500 -0.2% at 2,090
***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Apr gold +0.5% at $1,233/oz, Mar crude oil -0.5% at $52.54/brl, Mar Copper -0.3% at $2.60/lb
- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 3.2 tonnes to 768.3 tonnes; lowest since Feb 4th
- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥400B in 1-3yr JGBs, ¥400B in 3-5yr JGBs and ¥400B in 5-10yr JGBs
- (KR) South Korea sells 10-yr govt bond, avg yield at 2.435%
***Market Focal Points/FX***
- Japan economy resurfaced after two consecutive quarters of decline with a modest expansion, however its growth rate was well below expectations. Annualized GDP of 2.2% in Q4 was below 3.7% consensus, even as nominal (pre-inflation) growth was just below target at 1.1%. Exports bounced sharply by 2.7%, up from 1.5% in Q3, but consumption and private CapEx components weighed on recovery, rising just 0.3% (0.8%e) and 0.1% (1.0%e) respectively. Picking through the overall soft data, govt officials continued to cheerlead selectively. Econ Min Amari focused on rebounding Deflator component as indication of favorable conditions toward beating deflation, adding real wages and consumer sentiment have turned higher in the last month of the quarter. Cabinet Sec Suga noted prices are rising, but wages are not catching up.
- China's FX regulator SAFE warned continued volatility in capital movements could prompt the authorities to institute a short-term fix in the exchange rate, pointing to the most recent rise in outflows in 2014. Jan FDI spiked by 29%, well above the 10% increase in Dec, while MOFCOM spokesperson forecasted 2015 FDI growth to remain stable. MOFCOM's Shen added trade growth outlook is not optimistic, even though he still saw further exports growth. Separately, Chinese press reports cited NDRC official estimating China needs GDP of at least 6.5% for 2016-2020 period to meet medium term growth objectives, and a govt policy advisor anticipated further PBoC easing and tolerance toward CNY weakness to achieve an around 7% growth this year.
- Greek PM Tsipras made a last-ditch effort to enter Monday talks from a more favorable position, holding a phone call with EU's Juncker to discuss the options for continued aid. Latest reports from the EU side suggested there was little reason for optimism, though talks could still result in a "technical bailout" linked to updated terms of relief, which would allow Syriza leadership to present the outcome as a moral victory. Eurogroup's Dijsselbloem said "Greeks have sky-high ambitions", but "possibilities, given the state of the Greek economy, are limited." In the mean time, Syriza govt has already started to roll back further privatisation efforts, as the govt froze the €1.2B deal with Germany's Frapport to run 14 Greek airports.
- Ukraine ceasefire is now over 24 hours old and appears to be "generally" holding. Transport hub of Debaltseve remains the key battleground, and here Ukraine military continues to come under shelling attacks from the pro-Russia rebels. Late on Sunday, leaders from Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine offered praise for upholding de-escalation, and looked forward to Tuesday's expected withdrawal of heavy weaponry.
***Equities***
US markets:
- AAPL: Follow-up: Apple working on a company-branded electric vehicle model as part of a car project dubbed "Titan" - financial press
Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer discretionary: China Southern Airlines 1055.HK -2.2% (Jan operating results); Asics Corp -9.9% (FY14 result)
- Industrials: China State Construction Engineering 601668.CN +2.0%(Jan operating results); Fanuc 6954.JP +3.8% (to expand capacity); Aurizon Holdings AZJ.AU -2.8% (H1 result)
- Healthcare: China Medical System 867.HK +4.0% (FY14 guidance)
- Financials: Tong Yang Life 082640.KR -6.8% (speculation for China Anbang Insurance to acquire controlling stake); Shengjing Bank 2066.HK -1.1% (PBoC to lower deposit reserve ratio); Cinda International 111.HK -10.6% (FY14 guidance); China Merchants Bank 600036.CN -1.6% (FY14 prelim result); Gemdale Property 535.HK -2.4% (FY14 profit warning); Bendigo and Adelaide Bank BEN.AU -4.0% (H1 result); QBE Insurance Group QBE.AU +2.7% (To sell agency business)
- Technology: NavInfo Co 002405.CN +10.0%(China major taxi apps confirm merger); Ourpalm 300315.CN +10.0% (acquisition announcement)
- Materials: Kuraray Co 3405.JP -3.4% (FY14 result)