Asian Market Update: Australia NAB confidence retreats; USD rally gathers steam
***Economic Data*** - (AU) AUSTRALIA AUG NAB BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 8 (first decline in 5 months) V 10 PRIOR; NAB BUSINESS CONDITIONS: 4 V 8 PRIOR - (AU) AUSTRALIA JUL HOME LOANS M/M: 0.3% (5-month high) V 1.0%E; INVESTMENT LENDING: 6.8% V 0.1% PRIOR; OWNER-OCCUPIED LOAN VALUE: 0.0% V 1.7% PRIOR - (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly W/W: 113.3 v 112.6 prior - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND AUG TOTAL CARD SPENDING M/M: +0.3% V -0.2% PRIOR; RETAIL CARD SPENDING M/M: 0.5% V 0.6%E - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND AUG ANZ TRUCKOMETER HEAVY M/M: -1.2% V +2.5% PRIOR - (JP) JAPAN JUL TERTIARY INDUSTRY INDEX M/M: 0.0% V 0.2%E - (JP) JAPAN AUG MONEY STOCK M2 Y/Y: 3.0% (matches 18-month low) V 2.9%E; M3 Y/Y: 2.4% V 2.4%E - (UK) UK AUG BRC SALES LFL Y/Y: 1.3% (1st rise in 3 months, 4-month high) V 0.3%E
***Index Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT)*** - Nikkei225 +0.3%, S&P/ASX +0.2%, Kospi -0.3%, Shanghai Composite flat, Hang Seng closed, Sept S&P500 -0.1% at 1,999
***Commodities/Fixed Income/Currencies*** - Dec gold +0.2% at $1,256, Oct crude oil +0.4% at $93.04/brl, Dec copper -0.8% at $3.16/lb - JGB: (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥642B in 1.7% (1.7% prior) 30-yr notes; Avg yield: 1.679% v 1.676% prior; Bid to cover: 3.57x v 4.06x prior - (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$200M in indexed 2022 Bonds; Avg yield: 1.0099%; Bid-to-cover: 4.36x - (CN) PBoC to drain CNY15B in 14-day repos (13th consecutive drain) - USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1520 (strongest Yuan setting since Aug 11th, biggest raise in Yuan fixing since 2010) v 6.1707 prior setting
***Market Focal Points/Key Themes*** - Nikkei225 is outperforming among the regional bourses, once again bolstered by the slide in the Yen from the greenback tailwind. Just before the close of the US markets, San Francisco Fed report noted "evidence based on surveys, market expectations, and model estimates show that the public seems to expect a more accommodative policy than Federal Open Market Committee participants." The yield on the US 10-year is up another 2bps during the Asian session, testing 2.50%. USD/JPY hit fresh 6-year highs of 106.30, EUR/USD at 14-month lows below 1.2870, and NZD/USD is at 7-month lows around 0.8250. GBP/USD is down about 40pips at 1.6070 - the lowest level since Nov 2013 - with another UK press survey showing a statistical dead heat in the Scotland quest for independence.
- Among the most notable economic datapoints, Australia NAB business confidence slowed for the first time in 5 months while home loans growth missed consensus estimates despite hitting 5-month highs. NAB said business conditions "business conditions are still well up on 2013, but are significantly lower than the pre-global financial crisis years", adding "employment index was unchanged at low levels, conforming with expectations of a relatively jobless recovery." Note that Australia's monthly employment data will be released this coming Thursday.
- Out of Japan, Fin Min Aso downplayed the biggest contraction in Q2 GDP in 5 years, stating there is no change in view that economy recovering moderately following GDP data and adding there is no plan to compile additional budget to support economy this autumn. Japan cabinet economic adviser Itoh recommended a fiscal stimulus but did not see the need for the BOJ to expand its quantitative easing program. Econ Min Amari attributed some of the recent softness in consumer spending to one-off factors such as bad weather in summer, forecasting recovery in employment and renewed growth in corporate capex. BOJ early Aug meeting minutes saw only a few members point to downward pressure on long-term rates as a function of intensifying QE. Policy board members agreed economy is continuing to recover moderately, and the recent weakness in exports is due to cyclical factors.
***Equities*** US markets: - BNNY: General Mills To Acquire Annie's at $46/shr or $820M; +37.6% afterhours - IPAS: Initiates process to explore strategic alternatives; +36.8% afterhours - TPLM: Reports Q2 $0.20 v $0.14e, R$142M v $118Me; +4.3% afterhours - CASY: Reports Q1 $1.34 v $1.23e, R$2.29B v $2.29Be; +3.6% afterhours - HD: Confirmed payment data systems breached; no evidence of compromised PIN numbers - financial press; -0.6% afterhours - PBY: Reports Q2 $0.00 (incl items) v $0.16e, R$526M v $530Me; -8.3% afterhours - FCEL: Reports Q3 -$0.03 v -$0.03e, R$43.2M v $53.1Me (2 ests); -9.4% afterhours - GFIG: BGC Partners said to make unsolicited $675M all-cash offer for GFI Group - financial press
Notable movers by sector: - Consumer Discretionary: Shimamura 8227.JP +1.2% (press speculation on H1 results); Chongqing Changan Automobile 000625.CN +2.2% (Aug sales results) - Consumer staples: Zhejiang Beingmate 002570.CN +10.0% (resumes trading; Fonterra offers to acquire Beingmate) - Materials: Kobe Steel 5406.JP +2.3% (analyst actions); Regis Resources RRL.AU +9.2% (mineral resource update); Western Desert Resources WDR.AU -3.3% (iron ore price update) - Industrials: Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha 9107.JP +1.2% (forecast to receive more orders); Nippon Yusen 9101.JP +1.0% (cost reduction plan) - Technology: Brambles BXB.AU -0.5% (to acquire Ferguson Group); Eternal Asia Supply Chain Management 002183.CN +6.0% (Alibaba starts IPO roadshow, company has close relationship with Alibaba in logistics) - Healthcare: Sosei Group Corp 4565.JP -10.2% (results for Ultibro, Seebri; update with Pfizer) - Utilities: Mitsubishi Electric 6503.JP +1.6% (update operating targets for FY14/15; Order from Qatar)