Asian Market Update: Nikkei slumps as USD/JPY eyes 3-month lows; Fitch cautious on China
***Economic Data*** - (CN) CHINA APR ACTUAL FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI) YTD: 5.0% V 5.5% PRIOR; Y/Y: +3.4% V -1.5% PRIOR - (SG) SINGAPORE APR ELECTRONIC EXPORTS Y/Y: -8.7% V -7.5%E; NON-OIL DOMESTIC EXPORTS M/M: 9.0% V 4.6%E; Y/Y: +0.9% V -3.4%E - (CL) CHILE CENTRAL BANK LEAVES OVERNIGHT TARGET RATE UNCHANGED AT 4.00%, AS EXPECTED
Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 -1.7%, S&P/ASX -0.5%, Kospi -0.6%, Shanghai Composite -0.4%, Hang Seng -0.6%, Jun S&P500 flat at 1,866, Jun gold +0.2% at $1,296, Jun crude oil +0.5% at $101.96/brl
***Highlights/Observations/Insights*** - Nikkei225 is leading the regional Asian indices lower, dragged down by the third consecutive session of stronger Japanese Yen. USD/JPY, approaching 3-month lows near 101.20, is weighed by the falling US Treasury yields after a surprising slump in US industrial production, with the benchmark falling to 6-month lows below 2.5%. Renown bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine warned that the US treasury market may be setting up for an accelerating short-covering rally on premature expectations of rising interest rates.
- Fed Chair Yellen spoke at the US Chamber of Commerce as part of National Small Business Week. Remarks did not make specific reference to monetary policy, but Yellen did note that while "we have come far, it is also true that we have further to go to achieve a healthy economy." Yellen also promised the Federal Reserve will "continue to do our part in promoting the recovery so that you (small business) can continue to help America grow and prosper."
- China completed the release of its economic data for April with mixed FDI prints - YTD annual growth slowed to 5% while y/y April FDI returned to growth with 3.4% increase. A report out of Fitch was generally unimpressed with the entire set of April figures, noting "latest Chinese macro data releases for April indicate a further economic deceleration in the second quarter, and is in line with Fitch Ratings' forecast for growth to fall to 7.3% for full-year 2014 - marking the slowest annual rate of growth since 1990." Fitch believes the slowdown in he property market poses the greatest risk of a sharper-than-expected downturn. China financial largely tracked the modest decline in the broader market despite the overnight report from CBRC announcing Q1 NPLs rose by CNY54B to CNY646B - the biggest increase in bad loans since 2005 and the highest volume of bad loans since Sept 2008.
- India elections have sparked a rip-roaring 5% rally in early Sensex trade, as opposition BJP-led coalition was headed toward a resounding victory in the lower house of Parliament. Rupee is also sharply higher, with USD/INR falling to 10-month low below INR59 level.
***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - (US) Weekly Fed Balance Sheet Total Assets Week ending May 14th: $4.34T v $4.30T prior; Reserve Bank Credit: $4.29T v 4.26T prior; M1: +$31.6B (biggest increase in 9 weeks) v -$10.5B prior; M2: $22.6B v $51.2B prior; M1 y/y change: 10.4% v 10.4% w/w; M2 y/y change: 6.2% v 6.2% w/w - (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$700M in 3.25% 2018 Bonds; avg yield: 3.1196%; bid-to-cover: 4.62x - GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings rise 1.8 tonnes to 782.3 tonnes (first rise since Apr 15th) - (CN) China Qinhuangdao coal price at CNY530-540/t (first rise since late Dec, 2013) v CNY525-535/t w/w - (JP) Japan utilities Apr coal consumption at 4.31M tonnes +11.8% y/y (record high; 13th consecutive month of gains) - USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1628 v 6.1640 prior setting (2nd consecutive firmer setting)
***Equities*** US markets: - JCP: Reports Q1 -$1.16 v -$1.27e, R$2.80B v $2.72Be; SSS +6.2%; +18.3% afterhours - JWN: Reports Q1 $0.72 v $0.67e, R$2.84B v $2.88Be; +10.9% afterhours - DCIN: To be acquired by Carmike Cinemas in all stock transaction; +8.3% afterhours - ADSK: Reports Q1 $0.32 v $0.21e, R$592.5M v $569Me; +4.8% afterhours - VZ: Berkshire Hathaway discloses quarterly holdings as of 3/31: took 11M share stake in VZ - 13F filing; +1.7% afterhours - AMAT: Reports Q2 $0.28 v $0.28e, R$2.35B v $2.36Be; +1.7% afterhours - GTIV: Board of Directors Rejects Unsolicited Proposal from Kindred Healthcare, says it undervalues GTIV; -1.1% afterhours - WWE: Confirms multi-year renewal of NBCU broadcasting deal; does not expect to make up for lost pay-per-view, streaming demand business until 2015; -23.7% afterhours
Notable movers by sector: - Consumer Discretionary: Goodman Fielder GFF.AU -2.2% (provides bidding update) - Financials: Greentown China 3900.HK +3.5%, Sunac China 1918.HK -8.0% (Sunac China in talks to acquire 30% stake in Greentown China); Dai-ichi Life Insurance 8750.JP -1.1% (FY13/14 results); T&D Holdings 8795.JP -1.1% (FY results) - Energy: GCL.Poly Energy 3800.HK -4.0% (Q1 production results) - Industrials: Leighton LEI.AU -1.0% (in negotiation to settle class action suit); Amada 6113.JP +16.0% (FY13/14 results) - Technology: Sumco 3436.JP +5.6% (Q1 results)