Asian Market Update: Shanghai at fresh 42-month high; Aussie rallies on retail sales, trade balance
***Economic Data***
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND NOV QV HOUSE PRICES: 5.1% V 5.9% PRIOR
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA Q3 FINAL GDP Q/Q: 0.9% V 0.9% PRELIM; Y/Y: 3.2% V 3.2% PRELIM
- (AU) AUSTRALIA OCT RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.4% V 0.1%E (5th month of increase)
- (AU) AUSTRALIA OCT TRADE BALANCE (A$): -1.3B V -1.8BE; 7th consecutive trade deficit
- (BR) BRAZIL CENTRAL BANK (BCB) RAISES SELIC TARGET RATE BY 50BPS TO 11.75%; AS EXPECTED
***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +0.8%, S&P/ASX +0.5%, Kospi +0.9%, Shanghai Composite +1.6%, Hang Seng +0.5%, Dec S&P500 flat at 2,073
***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Feb gold -0.3% at $1,205, Jan crude oil 1.0% at $68.02/brl, Mar copper flat at $2.89/lb
- USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1411 v 6.1376 prior setting (weakest Yuan setting since Nov 23rd)
- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings rise 2.4 tonnes to 720.0 tonnes; First rise since Nov 17th
- SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings fall to 10,737 tonnes from 10,806 tonnes prior (lowest since Nov 12th)
- (JP) Japan investors net bought ¥3.4B in foreign bonds v sold ¥32.5B in prior week; Foreign investors net sold ¥53.0B in Japan stocks v bought ¥734.9B in prior week
***Market Focal Points/Key Themes/FX***
- Aussie dollar got a brief moment of respite from the soft GDP-driven decline, trading up by about 25pips on better than expected trade balance and retail sales data. Australia posted its 5th month of increase in retail sales, while the 7th consecutive trade deficit of A$1.3B was below A$1.8B expected. Imports fell 2% and exports rose 2%, as shipments to China improved by over 5% from last month. The rally did not hold, and AUD/USD traded lower in the latter part of the session on general strength in USD. Meanwhile, an analyst at Goldman Sachs reiterated expectations for two RBA cuts in 2015, forecasting AUD/USD to drop to $0.83 in 3 months, and to $0.79 in the next 12 months.
- Shanghai Composite continued to trade higher today, reaching a fresh 42-month high. Brokers led the gains, with China's largest broker CITIC Securities traded higher by 10% at limit. Major energy names also soared, with PetroChina higher by over 8% and Sinopec up by 7% on recovering oil prices. Trading volumes cooled down a bit after hitting fresh record highs overnight.
- Brazil central bank raised its Selic target rate by 50bps to 11.75%, as expected by a narrow majority of analysts. This marks the 10th rate hike in Brazil tightening cycle since April 2014, and the second hike after the Presidential elections. Unlike last month's 25bps tightening that saw a significant dissenting camp, today's decision was also unanimous.
- Volatility in other USD majors is subdued ahead of the ECB rate decision later today. Market generally expects ECB to hold off on expanded QE. ECB chief Draghi is however likely to convey a more dovish tone at the press conference amid lower inflation expectations, and also reiterate that the central bank is prepared for unconventional measures.
***Equities***
US markets:
- ARRY: To Regain Worldwide Rights To Binimetinib and receive up to $85M upfront payment from Novartis; +22.8% afterhours
- HE: NextEra announces combination agreement with Hawaiian Electric; $4.3B deal values HE at about $33.50/shr; +17.1% afterhours
- PRA: Approves $2.65 special dividend (5.9% yield); increases dividend 3.3% to $0.31 from $0.30; approves $100M in share repurchases (3.8% of market cap); +1.8% afterhours
- ONNN: Announces New Distribution Channel Partners to Expand Business and Support Customers in Japan and Asia-Pacific; +1.5% afterhours
- GES: Reports Q3 $0.24 v $0.18e, R$590M v $596Me; +0.6% afterhours
- DIS: INCREASES DIVIDEND 34% TO $1.15 FROM $0.86; +0.5% afterhours
- ENB: Guides initial FY15 $2.05-2.35 v $2.00e; Raises dividend by 33% to $0.465/shr, implied yield 3.9%; flat afterhours
- PVH: Reports Q3 $2.56 v $2.49e, R$2.23B v $2.26Be; -1.9% afterhours
- SEAC: Reports Q3 -$0.07 v -$0.08e, R$30.0M v $30.4Me; -11.4% afterhours
Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer Discretionary: Vocation Ltd VET.AU -52.0% (cuts FY15 guidance); Ryohin Keikaku 7453.JP +1.6% (press speculation on 9-month)
- Energy: Liquefied Natural Gas LNG.AU +6.6% (shareholder raises stake)
- Industrials: Leighton Holdings LEI.AU +6.9% (analyst action; awarded contract); Nufarm Ltd NUF.AU +4.4% (FY15 guidance); Takata Corp 7312.JP -3.0% (auto recall expands )
- Healthcare: REVA Medical RVA.AU +29.3% (update on Fantom Scaffold product)