Asian Market Update: Australia construction falls into contraction; Shanghai Composite volatile after hitting 42-month highs
***Economic Data***
- (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV AIG PERFORMANCE OF CONSTRUCTION INDEX: 45.4 V 53.4 PRIOR (1st contraction in 6 months)
- (JP) JAPAN NOV OFFICIAL RESERVE ASSETS: $1.27T V $1.27T PRIOR
- (TW) TAIWAN NOV CPI Y/Y: 0.9% V 1.2%E; WPI Y/Y: -2.7% V -1.5%E
- (PH) PHILIPPINES NOV CPI M/M: -0.1% V +0.1%E; Y/Y: 3.7% V 4.0%E (slowest since Nov 2013); CORE CPI Y/Y: 2.7% V 2.9%E
***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 -0.2%, S&P/ASX -1.0%, Kospi flat, Shanghai Composite -0.6%, Hang Seng +0.8%, Dec S&P500 flat at 2,071
***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Feb gold -0.4% at $1,202, Jan crude oil -0.4% at $66.55/brl, Mar copper flat at $2.91/lb
- CME raises margin requirements on certain FX, metals, and natural gas futures; Silver margins +18.2%; Copper margins +11.5%
- (US) Weekly Fed Balance Sheet Total Assets for week ending Dec 3rd: $4.49T v $4.49T prior; M1 y/y change: 9.8% v 9.8% w/w; M2 y/y change: 5.9% (8-month low) v 6.0% w/w
- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥400B in 5-10yr JGB, ¥240B in 10-25yr JGB and ¥160B in JGB with maturity over 25-yr; Offers ¥750B in T-bills
- (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$700M in 4.25% 2026 Bonds; avg yield: 3.1408%; bid-to-cover: 2.16x
***Market Focal Points/Key Themes/FX***
- Asian equity markets are mixed after US indices posted very modest losses going into Friday's non-farm payrolls report. Initial disappointment over a non-committal ECB press conference by Pres Draghi has been replaced with anticipation of further signs in employment recovery, and although the ADP report on Wednesday missed expectations, other leading indicators such as the Conference Board online jobs gains are foreshadowing a strong number. USD majors are flat across the board - EUR/USD in a 20pip range below $1.24, USD/JPY in a 30pip range around the psychological ¥120 mark, and AUD/USD in a 20pip band around $0.8380.
- Australia construction index from AiG was the most notable economic datapoint for the session, falling into contractionary territory for the first time in 6 months. Recall the most recent Q3 GDP report earlier this week also identified the Construction sector as a main detractor to GDP growth. AiG remarked the "significant loss of momentum was driven by a renewed decline in activity and new orders in November contributed to a steeper fall in employment", adding apartment building activity also recorded an easing in growth. Slowing inflation in the housing space would remove a key impediment to further RBA easing, just as analysts with Goldman Sachs, DB, and Westpac projected 2 more interest rate cuts to take place in 2015 just this week.
- After posting its biggest gain since Dec 2012 overnight, Shanghai Composite is down marginally in the afternoon session. Trading in A-shares has been volatile in morning hours, rising and then falling by over 2.5%, with financials supported by reports of Haitong Securities looking at a deal for Portugal's Espirito Santo assets. Speculation regarding further easing is also keeping the overall bullish sentiment high, with CASS researcher calling for a RRR cut and UBS forecasting another 40-50bps in interest rate easing by the end of 2015. China focus will turn to economic data for November next week, beginning with the expected release of trade figures on Sunday.
- A late US session report from renown Fed watcher Hilsenrath pointed to a research note from senior Fed economists declaring that the best time to start raising interest rates is right now. The study anticipates fed funds rate reaching 1.4% by the end of 2015, 2.6% in 2016 and 3.5% in 2017 - all of these are within 25bps of the latest median FOMC staff projections for fed funds made with the Sept 17th meeting.
***Equities***
US markets:
- ALSK: GCI to purchase wireless subscriber base from Alaska Communications for $300M; +25.8% afterhours
- ULTA: Reports Q3 $0.91 v $0.83e, R$745.7M v $732Me; +6.5% afterhours
- GPS: Reports Nov SSS +6.0% v -1.7%e; +3.2% afterhours
- NOC: Announces New $3B Share Repurchase Authorization (10.6% of market cap); +1.5% afterhours
- SWHC: Reports Q2 $0.09 v $0.07e, R$108.4M v $105Me; cuts FY15 guidance; -1.3% afterhours
- COO: Reports Q4 $1.95 v $2.03e, R$468M v $478Me; -2.5% afterhours
- FCAU: Files to offer 87M shares - F1/A filing (7.1% of shares outstanding); -3.7% afterhours
- AEO: Reports Q3 $0.22 v $0.22e, R$854M v $844Me; -6.9% afterhours
- FIVE: Reports Q3 $0.06 v $0.06e, R$110.7M v $137Me; -11.6% afterhours
Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer Discretionary: Qantas Airways QAN.AU +1.5% (shareholder raises stake); Myer Holdings MYR.AU -3.1% (shareholder initiates stake)
- Financials: China CITIC Securities 600030.CN +8.7%, Huatai Securities 601688.CN +5.3%, China Merchants Securities 600999.CN +6.6% (Nov Op results); Haitong Securities 6837.HK +9.7% (in talks to acquire Portuguese asset)
- Materials: Atlas Iron AGO.AI -6.3% (cuts job positions; adjusts guidance); Mount Gibson Iron MGX.AU -45.1% (cuts FY15 guidance)
- Energy: Santos Ltd STO.AU -2.8% (analyst actions)
- Industrials: Great Wall Motor 601633.CN +8.3% (Nov production results); Bradken Ltd BKN.AU +34.6% (receives acquisition proposal)