Asian Mid-session Update: RBA Gov Stevens cautions to look beyond one month of bad jobs data in policy expectations
***Economic Data***
- (CN) CHINA JAN CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX M/M: 0.9% V 1.1% PRIOR (10th increase)
- (NZ) New Zealand Jan Food Prices M/M: 1.3% v 0.3% prior; 7-month high
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND JAN NON RESIDENT BOND HOLDINGS: 65.8% v 65.0% PRIOR
- (PE) PERU CENTRAL BANK LEAVES REFERENCE RATE UNCHANGED AT 3.25%, AS EXPECTED
- (CL) CHILE CENTRAL BANK (CCBH) LEAVES OVERNIGHT RATE TARGET UNCHANGED AT 3.00%, AS EXPECTED
***Index Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 -0.3%, S&P/ASX +2.2%, Kospi +0.4%, Shanghai Composite +1.6%, Hang Seng +0.9%, Mar S&P500 flat at 2,083
***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Apr gold +0.4% at $1,227/oz, Mar crude oil +0.2% at $51.40/brl, Mar Copper +0.5% at $2.61/lb
- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 1.8 tonnes to 771.5 tonnes
- JGB: (JP) Japan's MoF sells ¥2.46T in 0.1% (0.1% prior) 5-yr notes; Avg yield: 0.12% v 0.00% prior; Bid to cover: 3.29x v 4.38x prior
- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥2.0T in T-bills
- (JP) Japan investors bought net ¥199.5B in foreign bonds v ¥675.2B in prior week; Foreign investors sold net ¥477.1B in Japan stocks v ¥104.8B in prior week
- (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$600M in 4.25% 2026 Bonds; avg yield: 2.5992%; bid-to-cover: 2.89x
- (US) Weekly Fed Balance Sheet Total Assets for week ending Feb 11th: $4.50T v $4.50T prior; M1 y/y change: 8.7% v 9.3% w/w; M2 y/y change: 6.4% (5-month high) v 5.7% w/w
***Market Focal Points/FX***
- Australia is at the forefront of the regional indices, led by a 6.5% jump in shares of Rio Tinto after its strong FY14 report and an impressive share buyback. Goldminer Newcrest is lagging however after a modest decline in both profit and revenue from last year, even though the company affirmed this year's production targets despite the softer precious metals prices. AUD/USD also saw the most volatility among USD majors, rising about 60pips from the lows to $0.7790. After yesterday's weak employment data, economists began to price in more RBA rate cuts as early as next month. However, in his bi-annual testimony to parliamentary committee, RBA Gov Stevens said it would be unwise to react to one month of jobs numbers, also adding the impact of rate cuts may be diminishing. Traders took that as a sign the central bank chief wanted to temper expectations of more easing, even though he also expressed concern that the downswing in mining would only accelerate in 2015.
- Shanghai and Hong Kong markets were also firmer, tracking bullish sentiment on Wall Street in the wake of encouraging ceasefire plans in Ukraine. Conference Board leading index grew for the 10th straight month but at a slower pace, and resident economist remarked that "the softening in the short-term trend of the LEI, along with other high-frequency statistics, suggests that China's growth in 2015 is off to a weak start." In notable Chinese press, Securities Journal commentary indicated PBoC is unlikely to cut rates in the near future following the November move, preferring to manage liquidity via open market operations and other tools. S&P report warned the property market would consolidate further in both volume and price before recovering later in the second half. Finally, a separate report noted China may see higher default risks in the private bond market.
- After yesterday's press conference announcing the euro group and Greece are still apart on the terms of the funding, Dijsselbloem cautioned further talks are expected to remain challenging, and while a technical agreement is possible, a political solution will be difficult. Greek PM Tsipras maintained a hard stance, noting the essence of negotiation going forward would be "transition to a new program" which will be discussed on Monday, even as vocal German critics have been reluctant to budge on the possibility of relief without austerity. EUR/USD remains supported by overall weakness in USD, extending the gains made after soft US retail sales above $1.1430.
***Equities***
US markets:
- KING: Reports Q4 $0.57 v $0.47e, R$559M v $518Me; +19.4% afterhours
- CYBR: Reports Q4 $0.21 v $0.05e, R$36.3M v $26.7Me; +18.5% afterhours
- JCOM: Reports Q4 $0.98 v $0.90e, R$167.1M v $160Me; Raises dividend 11% to $0.2925/shr, implied yield 2.0%; +11.4% afterhours
- CBS: Reports Q4 $0.77 v $0.77e, R$3.68B v $3.64Be; +3.3% afterhours
- BYD: Reports Q4 $0.00 (adj) v -$0.06e, R$592M v $541Me; +0.8% afterhours
- BABA: China two major taxi hailing apps said to discuss merger - financial press; +0.6% afterhours
- MU: Micron, Seagate announce strategic alliance; +0.4% afterhours
- NKE: Announces Donald W. Blair to retire as CFO, effective Jun 31st; flat afterhours
- AIG: Reports Q4 $0.97 v $1.07e; Approves $2.5B share repurchase program (approx 3.4% of market cap); -1.7% afterhours
- KRFT: Reports Q4 $0.75 v $0.73e, R$4.70B v $4.64Be; -1.8% afterhours
- CPB: Guides FY15 lower $2.32-2.38 v $2.46e, Rev -1% to +1% y/y (implies R$8.21-8.38B v $8.16Be) ($2.42-2.50, Rev flat to +2% prior) cites currency headwinds; -3.2% afterhours
- CAG: Lowers FY15 $2.13-2.18 v $2.25e; op cash flow $1.6B (vs EPS at 'mid-single digit rate of growth' and op cash flow $1.6-1.7B prior); -3.6% afterhours
- SFLY: Reports Q4 $2.57 v $2.49e, R$483.3M v $476Me; Approves $300M share repurchase (16.5% of market cap); -3.7% afterhours
- MGI: Reports Q4 $0.18 v $0.23e, R$349.6M v $345Me; -5.2% afterhours
- ZNGA: Reports Q4 $0.00 v $0.00e, R$192.5M v $197Me; -14.3% afterhours
Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer Discretionary: Guangdong Mingzhu Group 600382.CN -4.7% (FY14 results); Automotive Holdings AHE.AU +3.0% (H1 results); Toppan Printing Co Ltd 7911.JP -1.8% (9-month results); Kirin Holdings Co Ltd 2503.JP -4.9% (FY14 results); Asahi Group Holdings 2502.JP -2.6% (FY14 results)
- Financials: China Overseas Grand Oceans Group 81.HK +2.6% (Jan sales results); Ping An Insurance 2318.HK +1.9% (Jan op results); China Overseas Land 688.HK +2.0% (Jan sales results)
- Materials: Rio Tinto +6.5% (FY14 results); Newcrest Mining NCM.AU +1.0% (H1 results); Balamara Resources BMB.AU -42.9% (intends to delist); Aquarius Platinum Limited AQP.AU -3.8% (shareholder cuts stake); Sims Metal Management SGM.AU +10.5% (H1 results); Yokohama Rubber 5101.JP -3.3% (FY14 results); Showa Denko 4004.JP -2.0% (FY14 results)
- Energy: Oil Search Ltd OSH.AU +4.0% (shareholder raises stake)
- Industrials: Shenzhen Infinova 002528.CN +10.0% (announces acquisition)
- Technology: Rakuten Inc 4755.JP +5.0% (FY14 results)