Asian Market Update: China industrial profits growth slows; Shibor rates rise despite another large PBoC injection in the wake of China Credit Trust rescue
***Economic Data*** - (CN) CHINA DEC INDUSTRIAL PROFITS Y/Y: 6.0% V 9.7% PRIOR; YTD: 12.2% V 13.2% PRIOR (5-month low) - (AU) AUSTRALIA DEC NAB BUSINESS CONDITIONS: +4 V -3 PRIOR; NAB BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 6 V 5 PRIOR - (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING INDEX M/M: 0.2% (3rd month of increase) V 0.5% PRIOR - (JP) JAPAN DEC CORPORATE SERVICE PRICE INDEX Y/Y: 1.3% V 1.1%E (highest since Aug 2008) - (KR) SOUTH KOREA FEB MANUFACTURING BUSINESS SURVEY: 81 V 79 PRIOR; NON-MANUFACTURING BUSINESS SURVEY: 71 V 70 PRIOR - (KR) SOUTH KOREA Q4 FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI) Y/Y: -25.3% V -32.9% PRIOR - (TW) TAIWAN Q4 PRELIMINARY GDP Y/Y: 2.9% V 1.8%E; 2013 GDP Y/Y: 2.2% V 1.9%E - (TH) THAILAND DEC MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION INDEX ISIC Y/Y: -6.2% V -10.6% PRIOR
***Observations/Insights*** - Apple down over 8% in extended session on disappointing guidance and iPhone shipments; Seagate down 6% after missing Q2 estimates. - Australia NAB business conditions improve in December, hitting a 2-year high; Employment seen slightly better and price inflation remains moderate; NAB delays forecast for next RBA cut from May to late 2014, sending AUD higher following the data release. - China shadow banking sector seems to have averted a high-profile default for ICBC's China Credit Trust product after "unnamed" investor stepped in with a deal to protect the principal of the product buyers, just as analysts warned about the "moral hazard" created by perpetuating the selling of high-yield/"low-risk" products. Shanghai Composite initially strengthened before the late-morning selloff after a slowdown reported in China industrial profits growth. PBoC was in the market for the 3rd straight session, with another outsized CNY150B OMO in 14-day reverse repos, but could not keep the overnight money market rates from rising for the 6th consecutive day. - Japan focus shifts on whether a corporate tax cut will be needed to mitigate the rising sales tax in April. Ruling LDP officials said to debate the merits of lower taxes, while the more conservative Fin Min Aso calls for lawmakers to keep Japan's fiscal state in mind.
***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - (CN) PBoC to conduct CNY150B in 14-day reverse repos (3rd consecutive injection) - (CN) Daily Shibor fixings: O/N: 4.8477% v 4.5340% prior (6th consecutive rise); 1-week: 4.9657% v 4.6890% prior - (JP) BOJ to buy ¥400B in CP outright on Jan 31st
- AUD/USD was jolted higher by improved business conditions data from NAB, rising over 60pips from session lows to as high as $0.8790. AUD/JPY was up nearly 80pips from the lows to a high of ¥90.30, while NZD/USD was up some 50pips above $0.8270 in sympathy as traders look ahead to a hawkish RBNZ policy statement (or even a rate hike) later this week. EUR/USD and USD/JPY are more contained with 20-30 pip ranges around $1.3670 and ¥102.60 respectively.
***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) China Ministry of Land and Resources (MLR): China shale gas production capacity to reach target of 6.5B cubic meters within two years, v 200M cubic meters in 2013 - Chinese press cites exclusive interview - (CN) Half of China's 28 provinces said to have cut investment expectations as part of economic targets for 2014 vs 2013; Only 3 have raised forecasts - Shanghai Daily - (JP) Japan LDP to begin talks on lower corporate tax next month - Japanese press - (JP) Japan Fin Min Aso: Govt must consider fiscal situation when discussing corporation tax cut - (JP) Japan Econ Min Amari: There are some concerns fx moves could raise fuel costs - financial press - (JP) Japan Automobile union Chief: To aim for rise in monthly wage - financial press - (AU) According to one survey, analysts are unanimous in expectation for RBA to leave policy rates on hold next month - SMH - (NZ) According to one survey, only 3 out of 17 analysts polled expect RBNZ to start tightening policy rates this week - NZ press - (KR) BoK Gov Kim: Global economy is recovering from financial turbulence - financial press - (KR) Bank of Korea biannual inflation report: To closely examine trends going forward regarding inflation falling below target band - (KR) Bank of Korea (BOK): Local banks' average lending rates on new household loans in Dec rose by 0.02pts to 4.52%; second consecutive month of increase - Korean press - (UR) Ukraine Pres Yanukovych and opposition agree to repeal some of the anti-protest laws
***Equities*** Market Snapshot (as of 04:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 +0.2%, S&P/ASX -1.1%, Kospi +0.2%, Shanghai Composite +0.1%, Hang Seng %, Mar S&P500 +0.3% at 1,780, Apr gold -0.5% at $1,257, Mar crude oil +0.1% at $95.82/brl
US markets: - SANM: Reports Q1 $0.41 adj v $0.38e, R$1.45B v $1.46Be; +8.1% afterhours - SWFT: Reports Q4 $0.36 v $0.35e, R$1.08B v $1.08Be; +4.6% afterhours - SMTC: Announces restructuring activity; to cut 6% of workforce (approx 90 jobs); -0.5% afterhours - X: Reports Q4 $0.27 adj v -$0.26e (unclear if comp), R$4.27B v $4.33Be; -1.2% afterhours - STX: Reports Q2 $1.32 v $1.40e, R$3.53B v $3.57Be; Guides Q3 Rev at least $3.40B v $3.45Be, gross margin "flat" q/q; -6.1% afterhours - OLN: Reports Q4 $0.31 v $0.31e, R$562.1M v $603Me; -6.1% afterhours - AAPL: Reports Q1 $14.50 v $14.04e, R$57.6B v $57.1Be; Guides Q2 Rev $42-44B v $46Be; iPhone shipments 51M v 47.8M y/y (v 56Me); -8.1% afterhours - RCII: Reports Q4 $0.25 (incl items) v $0.76e, R$769.6M v $793Me; -14.0% afterhours - CHEF: Guides FY13 $0.80-0.81 (adj) v $0.90e, R$670-673M v $677Me; -15.4% afterhours
Notable movers by sector: - Financials: Marui Group 8252.JP +2.5% (press report on 9M result); Sumitomo Corp 8053.JP +1.5% (press report on 9M result) - Materials: Metallurgical Corporation of China 1618.HK +4.6% (FY13 guidance) - Technology: Sony Corp 6758.JP -2.8% (Moody's cuts rating to junk); Digital China 861.HK -4.8% (9M guidance); SK Hynix Semiconductor 000660.KR +3.1% (Q4 results); Panasonic Corp 6752.JP +2.1% (to sell plasma panel factory) - Industrials: BYD Co Ltd 1211.HK +2.9% (China Premier Li visits Company); Yamato Holdings 9064.JP -3.1% (press report on 9M result) - Healthcare: Guilin Layn Natural Ingredients 002166.CN +10.0%, Shenzhen Neptunus Bioengineering 000078.CN +6.1%, Shandong Lukang Pharma 600789.CN +4.5%, Beijing Tiantan Biological Products 600161.CN +4.1% (over 100 cases of H7N9 infection) - Telecom: KT Corp 030200.KR +5.2% (Q4 result)