Asian Market Update: China trade surplus hits new record high, imports fall again; Japan Q2 final GDP revised lower; Sterling craters on Scotland poll
***Economic Data***
- (CN) CHINA AUG TRADE BALANCE: $49.8B V $40.0BE (2nd consecutive record-high)
- (JP) JAPAN Q2 FINAL GDP Q/Q: -1.8% (biggest decline in 5 years) V -1.8%E; ANNUALIZED GDP: -7.1% V -7.0%E; NOMINAL GDP: -0.2% V -0.1%E
- (JP) JAPAN JUL CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE: -¥417B V -¥444BE; ADJ CURRENT ACCOUNT: ¥99B (4-month low) V ¥180BE; TRADE BALANCE: -¥828B V -¥726BE
- (AU) AUSTRALIA AUG ANZ JOB ADS M/M: 1.5% (3rd consecutive increase) V 0.5% PRIOR
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q2 MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY VOLUME Q/Q: -0.7% V +0.2% PRIOR; MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY Q/Q: -1.9% V 0.0% PRIOR (1st contraction in a year)
***Index Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +0.1%, S&P/ASX -0.3%, Kospi closed, Shanghai Composite closed, Hang Seng -0.5%, Sept S&P500 -0.1% at 2,004
***Commodities/Fixed Income/Currencies***
- Dec gold +0.1% at $1,269, Oct crude oil -0.1% at $93.19/brl, Dec copper flat at $3.17/lb
- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥300B in 1-3yr JGB, ¥200B in 3-5 yr JGB and ¥400B in 5-10yr JGB
***Market Focal Points/Key Themes***
- Markets are less enthused by the 2nd consecutive record high in China trade surplus, as it also marked the 2nd straight instance of falling imports. Shanghai Composite is closed for holiday, but the Hang Seng hit its session lows below 25,100 just after the trade figures. Exports rose 9.4% - above 9.0% consensus - but growth in shipments to US and EU markets slowed from July levels. Separately out of China, the Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM) announced it would issue new rules that ease restrictions on local companies making overseas investments. Taking effect Oct 6th, the new rules would only require ministry approval on investments in regions and industries identified as "sensitive".
- Japan released its final Q2 GDP that showed an even bigger contraction than initially estimated. Private consumption was particularly soft, falling 5.1% on sharply reduced spending following consumption tax hike. The biggest downward revision was seen in corporate CAPEX which was cut to -5.1% from -2.5% prelim and below 3.4% consensus, with companies reluctant to invest given the more protracted drag from the sales tax than anticipated.
- Among USD majors, the biggest fluctuation is in Cable which fell as much as 160pips from Friday close to $1.6170. Investors are unnerved by the uncertainty related to the possibility of Scotland referendum for independence after a YouGov survey for the Sunday Times showed supporters of independence are in the lead for the first time by a 51-49% margin. Referendum vote in Scotland is scheduled for Sept 18th.
- In geopotical theater, weekend developments in Ukraine and Iraq will likely keep the markets on edge this week. After the official start of a ceasefire on Friday, both sides accused each other of continued shelling around the Ukraine port city of Mariupol. EU official also unveiled the specifics of the latest round of sanctions on Russia, banning top energy firms Rosneft, Transneft, and Gazprom oil unit from fund raising and securing new loans. In the Middle East, US Air Force conducted two more airstrikes against ISIS over the weekend. Pres Obama is also expected to consult Congress on Tuesday and then deliver a statement on Wednesday unveiling a plan to go on the offensive against the militants on Wednesday.
***Equities***
US markets:
- BA: Ryanair, Boeing to make fleet announcement regarding purchase of $11B worth of Boeing Max aircrafts
- RAX: CenturyLink said to have held talks to acquire company for its cloud services - financial press
Notable movers by sector:
- Materials: Kobe Steel 5406.JP +2.9% (production plans)
- Industrials: Chiyoda Corp 6366.JP +2.2% (awarded contract); Great Wall Motor 2333.HK -2.1% (Aug sales)
- Financials: Mitsubishi UFJ 8306.JP +0.5% (preparing up to $8B in foreign acquisitions)
- Technology: Rakuten 4755.JP -4.2% (reached basic deal to acquire Ebates)
- Consumer Discretionary: Goodman Fielder GFF.AU -0.8% (update on scheme arrangement with Wilmar Int'l)