Asian Market Update: Japan Q1 GDP much stronger than expected on consumption surge ahead of tax hike
***Economic Data*** - (JP) JAPAN Q1 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 1.5% V 1.0%E; GDP NOMINAL Q/Q: 1.2% V 1.0%E; GDP ANNUALIZED GDP Q/Q: 5.9% (3-year high) V 4.2%E - (JP) JAPAN MAR TERTIARY INDUSTRY INDEX M/M: 2.4% V 2.2%E - (AU) AUSTRALIA APR NEW MOTOR VEHICLE SALES M/M: 0.0% V -0.3% PRIOR; Y/Y: -1.9% V -2.9% PRIOR - (AU) AUSTRALIA APR RBA FX TRANSACTIONS MARKET (A$): 325M V 736M PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND APR BUSINESS MANUFACTURING PMI: 55.2 (7-month low) V 58.0 PRIOR
Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 -0.9%, S&P/ASX -0.2%, Kospi flat, Shanghai Composite -0.6%, Hang Seng +0.3%, Jun S&P500 -0.1% at 1,883, Jun gold -0.1% at $1,304, Jun crude oil -0.3% at $102.06/brl
***Highlights/Observations/Insights*** - Japan Q1 GDP grew at a 3-year high of 5.9% on annual basis, as consumers rushed to make advance purchases before the Apr 1st start of higher sales tax and businesses invested generously. GDP q/q components saw consumption rise 2.1% v 0.4% prior, CAPEX up 4.9% v 1.4% prior, and export growth spiking by 6% vs 0.5% prior. Public investment shrank 2.4% however after a 1.2% increase in Q4. Markets initially interpreted the higher than expected GDP as diminishing the probability of further BOJ easing, but then questioned sustainability of that rate of growth in Q2 and Q3, with headwinds from higher sales tax likely to dent consumer spending which is over 50% of Japan economy. USD/JPY fell over 20pips below 101.70 but quickly reversed those loses. Econ Min Amari acknowledged consumption growth was a major contributor to GDP, remaining confident that domestic demand would support the broader economic rebound. Amari also noted the cabinet would carefully examine Q2 and Q3 GDP before making a decision on 2015 sales tax hike to 10%. Separately, BOJ Gov Kuroda said the sales tax hike is being passed through, with prices expected to be on an upward trend later this fiscal year.
- Shanghai Composite remains under pressure on renewed concerns over China's rate of growth in the wake of disappointing April economic data. China National Energy Administration (NEA) reported Apr power consumption grew just 4.6% y/y, while local press indicated the State Council announced measures to further improve imports.
- In equities, Australia's Westfield and Graincorp were both down marginally after posting Q1 retail sales (inline with views) and a 43% y/y decline in net profit respectively. Cisco moved sharply higher in the US extended session, first after beating estimates on Q3 results and then guiding much stronger than expected on a conference call. CEO Chambers noted several businesses starting to show improving trends, but also cautioned challenges in emerging markets to continue.
- Appaloosa's David Tepper gave a closely followed address at the SkyBridge investment conference in Las Vegas, calling US equity market "dangerous" and warning not to be "too long". Tepper also said he is more worried about deflation than inflation.
***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - JGB: (JP) Japan's MoF sells ¥2.47T in 0.2% (0.2% prior) 5-yr notes; Avg yield: 0.185% v 0.189% prior; Bid to cover: 4.62x v 4.67x prior - (JP) Japan investors bought net ¥345.7B in foreign bonds last week vs bought ¥70.8B in prior week; Foreign investors sold net ¥153.9B in Japan stocks vs bought net ¥195.9B in prior week - (CN) PBoC to drain CNY87B in 28-day repos (25th consecutive drain); Injects net CNY44B v drained CNY60B prior - USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1640 v 6.1653 prior setting (first firmer setting in 6 sessions)
***Equities*** US markets: - VIPS: Reports Q1 $0.63 v $0.45e, R$701.9M v $651Me; +8.7% afterhours - CSCO: Reports Q3 $0.51 v $0.48e, R$11.5B v $11.3Be; Guides Q4 adj EPS $0.51-0.53 v $0.51e; Rev -3% to -1% v -5%e (implies R$12-12.3B v $11.8Be) - conf call; +7.2% afterhours - OPWR: Reports Q1 -$0.13 v -$0.25e, R$28.6M v $24.5Me; +4.1% afterhours - A: Reports Q2 $0.72 v $0.72e, R$1.73B v $1.74Be; -1.3% afterhours - NTES: Reports Q1 $1.38 v $1.40e, R$405M v $413Me; Announces $100M (1.1% market cap) repurchase program; -2.5% afterhours - JACK: Reports Q2 $0.51 v $0.52e, R$340.9M v $338Me; -2.8% afterhours - WX: Reports Q1 $0.49 (adj) v $0.39e, R$147M v $145Me; -6.3% afterhours - XONE: Reports Q1 -$0.38 v -$0.14e, R$7.3M v $10.0Me; -14.0% afterhours - RGSE: Reports Q1 -$0.32 (incl charge) v -$0.13e, R$22.1M v $24.5Me; -14.7% afterhours
- DTV: AT&T said to be working with Lazard on DirecTV deal - financial press
Notable movers by sector: - Consumer Discretionary: Guangzhou Canudilo Fashion & Accessories 002656.CN +3.7% (strategic alliance with Tencent); Anta Sports Products 2020.HK +5.3% (Q1 operating results) - Financials: Mizuho Financial Group 8411.JP -0.5% (FY13/14 results); Westfield Group WDC.AU -0.3% (quarterly trading update); Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group 8316.JP -3.3% (FY13/14 results); Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group 8306.JP -0.2% (FY13/14 results; Chairman resigns; names new exec) - Energy: China Shenhua Coal 1088.HK -0.9% (Apr production results) - Industrials: Yue Yuen Industrial 551.HK +1.6% (Q1 results) - Technology: Tencent Holdings 700.HK +5.2% (Q1 results); Sony Corp 6758.JP -7.0% (FY13/14 results) - Utilities: SP Ausnet SPN.AU -1.5% (FY14 results) - Telecom: Singapore Telecommunications STEL.SG -0.5% (Q4 results)