Asian Market Update: Shanghai, Hong Kong rally on confirmation of trading link; China inflation and trade figures remain soft
***Economic Data*** - (CN) CHINA OCT TRADE BALANCE: $45.4B V $42.0BE; Exports Y/Y: 11.6% v 10.6%e; Imports Y/Y: 4.6% v 5.0%e - (CN) CHINA OCT CPI Y/Y: 1.6% V 1.6%E (matches lowest level since Jan 2010) - (CN) CHINA OCT PPI Y/Y: -2.2% V -2.0%E (32nd straight month of decline) - (AU) AUSTRALIA SEPT HOME LOANS M/M: -0.7% (2nd straight decline) V -0.4%E; INVESTMENT LENDING: 3.7% V 0.7% PRIOR; OWNER-OCCUPIED LOAN VALUE: +1.4% V -1.9% PRIOR - (JP) JAPAN OCT OFFICIAL RESERVE ASSETS: $1.27T V $1.26T PRIOR
***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)*** - Nikkei225 -0.7%, S&P/ASX -0.6%, Kospi +1.1%, Shanghai Composite +1.2%, Hang Seng +1.7%, Dec S&P500 +0.1% at 2,027
***Commodities/Fixed Income*** - Dec gold +0.2% at $1,172, Dec crude oil +0.4% at $78.96/brl - (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥550B in 1-3yr JGB, ¥550B in 3-5yr JGB and ¥400B in 5-10yr JGB - (KR) South Korea to sell 5-yr govt bond, avg yield 2.305% - USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1377 v 6.1602 prior setting (strongest Yuan setting since Mar 19th; biggest increase since Jun 2010)
***Market Focal Points/Key Themes/FX*** - Shanghai Composite hit fresh 32-month highs above 2,455, while Hang Seng is within striking distance of 2-month highs near 24K as the delayed stock-trading link between the two was finally announced to come online next week. Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) officially jointly stating that the launch of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect on 17 November 2014 has been approved. This follows a high-profile delay in the link that had been attributed in part to the Occupy Central related disruptions. UBS estimates the Shanghai-Hong Kong connect trading would open as much as $2T of stocks for trading to global investors.
- China also released a set of economic figures over the weekend. October 1.6% CPI matched the lowest level since Jan 2010, as Food component rose 2.5% and non-food up 1.2%. YTD, CPI was unchanged from prior month just above the 2% level. PPI decline of 2.2% - 32nd consecutive decline - has been attributed to global oil price drop and overcapacity. Trade figures released over the weekend marked a beat on the surplus and exports side, but growth in the imports component was less than expected. Subsequent report from BoCom reflected that "trade surplus was driven by the contraction in growth of imports, domestic demand remains weak, and de-stocking this year has led to decline in consumption of cement, coal, iron ore and other raw materials."
- The start of the APEC summit was marked by the China Pres Xi address who stated that while the economy shifted to a slower, more stable rate of growth, economic risks are "not that scary". Xi remained optimistic that "for the Asia-Pacific and the world at large, China's development will generate huge opportunities and benefits and hold lasting and infinite promise." In addition, Xi and Japan PM Abe held the first summit between China-Japan leaders in nearly 3 years, agreeing to set up a "crisis management" mechanism to prevent escalation of tensions related to disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. Previously, China did not formally acknowledge the dispute exists.
- Overextended USD longs remain under pressure in the wake of slightly disappointing NFPs on Friday. USD/JPY briefly tested the downside below 114, EUR/USD is up another 30pips at 1.2480, AUD/USD is up about 50pips around 0.8680, and NZD/USD up 50pips above 0.7790. Gold remains bid above 1,170 after rising by its biggest margin since June 18th on Friday.
***Equities*** US markets: - BRK.B: Reports Q3 Net EPS attributable to shareholders (Class A shares) $2,811 v 3,074 y/y; R$51.2Bv $46.5B y/y - T: To Acquire Mexico Wireless Provider Iusacell for $2.5B - RIG: Reports Q3 $0.96 (adj) v $0.77e, R$2.27B v $2.21Be
Notable movers by sector: - Financials: Cedar Woods Properties CWP.AU +2.5% (reaffirms FY15 guidance); Minsheng Bank 600016.CN +3.6% (announces employee stock incentive plan); Haitong Securities 6837.HK +2.1%, HK Exchange 388.HK +4.7% (Shanghai-Hong Kong connect trading to start on Nov 17th) - Materials: Yancoal Australia YAL.AU -25.0% (announces $2.3B capital raising); Lynas Corp LYC.AU +8.2% (issues operating performance update) - Technology: Kingsoft 3888.HK +2.9% (Q3 results) - Telecom: NTT 9432.JP -5.0% (H1 results; cuts guidance)