Asian Market Update: Japan PMI hits multi-year high, but sentiment turns amid falling optimism among pension managers; New Zealand trade balance supported by strong dairy exports
***Economic Data*** - (JP) JAPAN JAN MARKIT/JMMA MANUFACTURING PMI: 56.6 V 55.2 PRIOR (highest reading since Feb 2006) - (JP) JAPAN DEC NATIONAL CPI Y/Y: 1.6% V 1.5%E; CPI EX FRESH FOOD Y/Y: 1.3% V 1.2%E (highest since Oct 2008) - (JP) JAPAN JAN TOKYO CPI Y/Y: 0.7% V 0.8%E; TOKYO CPI EX-FRESH FOOD Y/Y: 0.7% V 0.7%E - (JP) JAPAN DEC VEHICLE PRODUCTION Y/Y: 12.2% V 10.2% PRIOR - (JP) JAPAN DEC PRELIM INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 1.1% V 1.3%E (1st rise in two months); Y/Y: 7.3% V 7.3% - (JP) JAPAN DEC OVERALL HOUSEHOLD SPENDING Y/Y: 0.7% V 1.1%E (4th consecutive increase) - (JP) JAPAN DEC JOBLESS RATE: 3.7% V 3.9%E (lowest since Oct 2008); JOB-TO-APPLICANT RATIO: 1.03 V 1.01E - (JP) JAPAN DEC ANNUALIZED HOUSING STARTS: 1.06M V 1.00ME; HOUSING STARTS Y/Y: 18.0% V 13.6%E (16th consecutive rise) - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND DEC TRADE BALANCE (NZ$): 523M V 500ME (9-month high) - (AU) AUSTRALIA Q4 PPI Q/Q: 0.2% V 1.3% PRIOR; Y/Y: 1.9% V 1.9% PRIOR - (AU) AUSTRALIA DEC PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT M/M: 0.5% V 0.4%E (biggest rise since Mar 2012); Y/Y: 3.9% V 3.7%E - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND DEC M3 MONEY SUPPLY: 5.8% V 6.7% PRIOR - (TH) THAILAND DEC CUSTOMS TRADE BALANCE: -$0.3B V -$0.7BE - (UK) JAN GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: -7 V -12E (highest since Sept 2007)
***Observations/Insights*** - Google rallies over 4% afterhours despite missing on the bottom line on strong rise in paid clicks; Amazon comes off its extended session low ($360s) but still falls over 4% after missing on Q4 top and bottom lines and forecasting a Q1 op income mid-point at breakeven; Zynga a surprising top performer afterhours after announcing strong top line in Q4, acquisition of NaturalMotion for $527M, and 15% workforce reduction. - Wide set of economic data out of Japan was mixed. Manufacturing PMI hit its best level since early 2006, but economists indicated the rise was driven by temporary expansion ahead of the sales tax rise in April. Jobless rate fell to 5-year lows and Dec national Core CPI rose to its highest levels since Oct 2008, but the forward looking Jan CPI for Tokyo region slowed amid reversal of the weak-Yen trend. Japan stocks turned for the worse in the afternoon session on reports that Japan fund managers have reduced their equity exposure in January. - New Zealand trade data saw a slightly higher than expected surplus, briefly boosting NZD across the board. Exports rose 16% y/y, with shipments of dairy products rising at a 48% annual pace. Exports to China were also notably impressive, rising 66.5% on the year. Later in the day, comments from RBNZ Gov Wheeler expressing continued discomfort with the high rate of NZD knocked the currency lower.
***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥250B in 1-3 yr JGB, ¥250B in 3-5yr JGB, ¥400B in 5-10yr JGB as well as ¥2.0T in T-bills outright - GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings rise 0.6 tonnes to 793.2 tonnes (second consecutive rise) - (US) Weekly Fed Balance Sheet Total Assets Week ending Jan 29th: $4.10T v $4.10T prior; Reserve Bank Credit: $4.06T v $4.05T prior; M1 y/y change: 8.2% (4-week high) v 7.9% w/w; M2 y/y change: 5.7% (6-week high) v 5.3% w/w
- NZD currency was in focus among the majors - NZD/USD rose over 30pips as high as 0.8180 after the New Zealand trade data before falling below $0.8130 in the afternoon session. Comments from RBNZ Gov Wheeler and general retreat in risk-on sentiment weighed on the kiwi as well as AUD, with AUD/USD down 70pips from its highs around $0.8760 and AUD/JPY below 89.70 - down over 100pips from the highs. USD/JPY saw some pronounced downside on Japan pension managers' equity reduction report, sliding over 50pips below 102.40.
***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (JP) Japan fund managers reduce global stock allocation in Jan to 45.0% from 45.3% prior month - (JP) Japan Econ Min Amari: Inflation reflects Japan is moving smoothly towards price target - financial press - (JP) Japan PM Abe: Tax panel to start mulling corporate tax cut as early as next month - financial press - (CN) China considers air defense identification zone in South China Sea - Asahi News - (AU) Australia Bureau of Meteorology: Australia ex-tropical cyclone Dylan makes Queensland landfall; heavy rains expected - (NZ) New Zealand RBNZ Gov Wheeler: Rates must return to more normal levels; adjustment coming soon; Would like to see NZD lower even as current levels are sustainable - press conf
***Equities*** Market Snapshot (as of 04:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 -1.1%, S&P/ASX -0.1%, Kospi closed, Shanghai Composite closed, Hang Seng closed, Mar S&P500 -0.1% at 1,780, Apr gold +0.1% at $1,243, Mar crude oil -0.2% at $98.00/brl
US markets: - ZNGA: Reports Q4 -$0.03 v -$0.04e, R$176.4M v $140Me; to acquire NaturalMotion for $527M; Begins 15% workforce reduction; to expand cost savings plan; CEO: Expects sequential earnings to rise throughout the year; Sees mobile revenue to surpass online this year; +18.0% afterhours - CMG: Reports Q4 $2.53 v $2.52e, R$844.1M v $825Me; +13.3% y/y - CPHD: Reports Q4 $0.03 (adj) v -$0.12e, R$113.3M v $102Me; +10.2% afterhours - UIS: Reports Q4 $2.82 (adj) v $1.96e, R$996M v $947Me; +9.2% afterhours - JDSU: Reports Q2 $0.19 v $0.14e, R$447.6M v $438Me; +4.6% afterhours - WYNN: Reports Q4 $2.27 v $1.74e, R$1.52B v $1.43Be; +4.2% afterhours - GOOG: Reports Q4 $12.01 v $12.39e, R$13.6B v $13.4Be; +4.1% afterhours - N: Reports Q4 $0.08 v $0.07e, R$115.0M v $112Me; +3.6% afterhours - EMN: Reports Q4 $1.35 v $1.25e, R$2.27B v $2.23Be; +2.7% afterhours - CSC: Reports Q3 $0.98 v $0.83e, R$3.23B v $3.24Be; +1.5% afterhours - MSFT: Said to be preparing to name Satya Nadella as new CEO; Board may also replace Bill Gates as Chairman; +0.7% afterhours - BRCM: Reports Q4 $0.60 v $0.56e, R$2.06B v $2.03Be; +0.5% afterhours - NEM: Achieves 2013 Production Target of 5.1M oz v 4.8-5.1M prior guidance; Guides 2014 gold production 5.0-5.3M oz; Copper 160-175M; +0.2% afterhours - YHOO: Discloses some unauthorized access into email accounts - Yahoo blog; -0.1% afterhours - BYD: Guides Q4 lower to -$0.27 to -$0.21 v -$0.16e, adj EBITDA $15-17M (EPS -$0.20 to -$0.15, EBITDA $22-24M prior); -0.6% afterhours - RVBD: Reports Q4 $0.31 v $0.29e, R$285M v $281Me; -2.9% afterhours - AMZN: Reports Q4 $0.51 v $0.68e, R$25.59B v $26.0Be; CFO: Considering plans to increase price of 'Amazon Prime' service by $20-40/yr (currently $79/yr for free 2-day shipping and video library) - conf call comments; -4.6% afterhours - GDOT: Reports Q4 $0.18 v $0.22e, R$144.9M v $142Me; -11.1% afterhours - DLLR: Reports Q2 $0.04 v $0.19e, R$262.3M v $270Me; -22.8% afterhours
Notable movers by sector: - Consumer Discretionary: Japan Tobacco 2914.JP +5.0% (9M results; to raise cigarette prices); Casio Computer 6952.JP -5.8% (9M results); David Jones Ltd DJS.AU +4.2% (Approached by Myer last year on merger) - Financials: Nomura Holdings 8604.JP -1.4% (Q3 results) - Materials: Medusa Mining Ltd MML.AU -9.0% (Q2 guidance) - Energy: Tohoku Electric 9506.JP +7.0% (9M results) - Technology: Fujitsu Ltd 6702.JP +10.2% (9M results); NEC Corp +8.5% (9M results; proposes acquisition); FujiFilm Holdings 4901.JP +3.9% (9M results); Toshiba Corporation 6502.JP -7.3% (9M results); Konica Minolta Holdings 4902.JP +8.1% (9M results) - Industrials: Topre 5975.JP -3.7% (9M results); Nippon Express 9062.JP +2.3% (9M results); Tsugami Corp 6101.JP -3.5% (9M results)