Asian Market Update: RBA meeting minutes keep the door open to more easing; China FDI growth slows
***Observations/Insights*** - Asian equity markets have turned more cautious following impressive rallies in China overnight, tracking a final-hour selloff in US equities after renown investor Carl Icahn warned equities could see a large drop. Icahn said some companies' earnings may be a 'mirage' in part fueled by low interest rates as opposed to strong management. - RBA November meeting minutes saw policymakers straddle both sides of the fence in terms of easing bias. On one hand, RBA further expressed its discomfort with the high level of AUD impacting economic transition toward non-mining sectors. On the other, RBA said some impact from accommodative policy is already on display, and there's still more easing in the pipeline despite the door remaining open to more rate cuts. - China Oct foreign direct investment slowed further, as YTD growth hit a 4-month low. For October, FDI came in at $8.4B and YTD at $97B, of which investment from Japan rose 6.3% to $6.5B and investment from EU rose an impressive 22% to $6.4B.
***Economic Data*** - (CN) CHINA OCT ACTUAL FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI) Y/Y: +1.2% V +4.9% PRIOR (9th consecutive rise); YTD Y/Y +5.8% V +6.2% PRIOR (4-month low) >- (AU) RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) NOV MEETING MINUTES: Not closing possibility of a rate cut to support growth - (AU) AUSTRALIA SEPT CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING M/M: +0.3% V -0.2% PRIOR INDEX - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q4 RBNZ 2-YEAR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS: 2.34% V 2.36% PRIOR; 1-year inflation expectation: 1.94% v 1.90% prior
***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - (CN) PBoC to inject CNY35B in 7-day reverse repos (largest daily injection in 6 weeks) - (CN) Daily Shibor fixings: O/N: 4.0750% v 4.5130% prior (first decline in 5 sessions); 1-week: 4.8300% v 5.3570% prior (first decline in 5 sessions) - JGB: (JP) Japan's MoF sells ¥1.09T in 20-year 1.7% (1.7% prior) JGBs; Avg yield: 1.514% v 1.4740% prior; bid-to-cover: 4.75x v 4.34x prior - (AU) Australia sells A$5.9B in 4.5% 2033 treasury bonds, yield 4.86% - GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 1.2 tonnes to 864.5 tonnes (lowest since Feb 2009)
- USD majors are little changed as risk-on appetite is subsiding going into Tuesday commentary from Fed's Dudley and Evans, before Wednesday's release of the FOMC policy meeting minutes. AUD/USD saw the most volatility after the RBA statement, with somewhat less dovish than expected comments briefly taking the pair up about 20pips above 0.9380. USD/JPY briefly fell about 30pips below 99.60, while EUR/USD remains supported above 1.35 ahead of the release of German ZEW data later in European session.
***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC): China banks end-Q3 total assets +14.7% y/y to CNY115T >- (CN) China Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) spokesman Shen: China consumer market continues to recover - (CN) China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) Chairman Xiao Gang: China plenum reforms are risky as vested interests are touched; reform approach will be gradual. - (CN) China National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) Chairman Xu: China needs to boost fiscal, finance and land reforms - People's Daily - (JP) Japan Econ Min Amari: Stimulus is likely to be around ¥5T; Personally ordered cabinet ministers to compile stimulus measures by early Dec - (KR) South Korea state-run think tank Korea Development Institute (KDI): Forecast 2014 GDP at 3.7% vs BOK forecast of 3.8%
***Equities*** Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 -0.4%, S&P/ASX -0.5%, Kospi -1.0%, Shanghai Composite -0.1%, Hang Seng +0.4%, Dec S&P500 flat at 1,789, Dec gold +0.1% at $1,274, Dec crude oil -0.1% at $92.90/brl
US markets: - BRCD: Reports Q4 $0.24 v $0.18e, R$559M v $553Me; Guides Q1 $0.19-0.21 v $0.20e, R$540-560M v $559Me - slides; +5.3% afterhours - SMTC: Reports Q3 $0.35 (adj) v $0.34e, R$141M v $147Me; +4.4% afterhours - CRM: Reports Q3 $0.09 v $0.09e, R$1.08B v $1.05Be; Announces Strategic Cloud Partnership with Hewlett Packard; -0.9% afterhours - URBN: Reports Q3 $0.47 v $0.45e, R$774M v $770Me; -2.9% afterhours - TLLP: To Acquire Second Portion of Los Angeles Logistics Assets from Tesoro Corp for $650M; -4.2% afterhours
Notable movers by sector: - Consumer discretionary: Nanjing Central Emporium 600280.CN +5.0% (acquisution); Anxian Yuan China Holdings Ltd 922.HK -1.9% (H1 results); SAIC Motor Corp 600104.CN +0.9% (Thailand investment plans); Olympus Corp 7733.JP +3.8% (investment plans); Wonderful Sky Financial Group Holdings Ltd 1260.HK -2.9% (H1 results) - Consumer staples: Ruralco Holdings Ltd RHL.AU +2.8% (H1 results) - Industrials: Gome Electrical Appliances Holdings 493.HK +1.4% (9M results); Chongqing Gangjiu Co Ltd 600279.CN -1.5% (lock-up period to end); Sichuan Road & Bridge Co Ltd 600039.CN +1.9% (awarded contract); Transpacific Industries Group TPI.AU -2.2% (FY14 guidance); Hyundai Motor Co 005380.KR +2.0% (fuel cell vehicle plan) - Materials: Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co Ltd 000422.CN +0.8% (investment plan); Rio Tinto Ltd RIO.AU -0.9% (mine blast) - Financials: China Minsheng Banking Corp 1988.HK +1.1% (receives approval to issue bonds; analyst action) - Utilities: CLP Holdings 2.HK +1.0% (to acquire JV); Tokyo Electric Power Co Inc 9501.JP -2.2% (plant inspection plans) - Source TradeTheNews.com